Gallup Delivers a Stunner

The Wall Street Journal ^ | 10-06-10 | JOHN FUND

[GOP_Lady]

The real historical parallel may be 1894 when Republicans took 100 seats.

As Election Day draws closer, every major public opinion poll shifts from interviewing registered voters to those whom it identifies as "likely" voters. Gallup, the oldest U.S. polling company, first developed the model it uses for identifying likely voters back in 1950 and its final election polls have proven highly accurate.

Yesterday, Gallup delivered its first 2010 "likely voter" poll and the results floored the political community. In the generic ballot question, which asks which party a voter would favor in a generic House contest, Gallup gave the GOP a 46% to 42% edge. But then Gallup applied two versions of its "likely voter" turnout model. In its "high turnout model," Republicans led Democrats by 53% to 40%. In its "low turnout model," the GOP edge was a stunning 56% to 38%. That kind of margin in favor of Republicans has never been seen in Gallup surveys.

What should worry Democrats most is that the "low turnout model" is typical of recent midterm elections. If the Gallup numbers hold up (and the firm cautions that "the race often tightens in the final month of the campaign"), some word more cataclysmic than "tsunami" would be needed for the Democratic losses.

[South40]

All this means is the democRATs will be working harder than usual to cheat and steal this election cycle.

[Mountain Mary]

“Do not get overconfident folks” Yeah, but THE PEOPLE are about ready to make themselves heard. ...media, TV and elitists be damned.

[Redleg Duke]

That is “A little more grape, Captain Bragg!”

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

...some word more cataclysmic than "tsunami" would be needed for the Democratic losses.

Maybe we could recycle "Snowmageddon."

[liberty_lvr]

HA! Thanks, been looking for a new tagline to use through the election...

[Sloane_Ranger]

some word more cataclysmic than "tsunami" would be needed for the Democratic losses.

28 days to go. I am looking forward to the following NY Times headline -

DEMOCRATS WIPED OUT ! OBAMA'S WHITE HOUSE IN SHOCK !

[Gorzaloon]

Add to all this, ALL the local campaign signs here do NOT mention party affiliation. Dems are hiding, or pretending to be independent.

[liberty_lvr]

Oops, that’s better...

[2ndDivisionVet]

Newsweek is worth a dollar. Not an issue, the whole magazine company!

[Sloane_Ranger]

ALL the local campaign signs here do NOT mention party affiliation. Dems are hiding, or pretending to be independent.

True. The word "democrat" is now officially a bad word. The Dems' ads now studiously avoid mentioning that they are "democrats". They can only hide for so long.

[BunnySlippers]

I’m with you. Let’s remain vigilant.

[rob777]

"They're just trying to instill a sense of complacency so you will consider staying away from the polls on election day. "
,br>
That is possible, but not a wise tactic. Such news is at least as likely to depress Democratic turnout by creating a feeling of hopelessness.

[cynwoody]

All this means is the democRATs will be working harder than usual to cheat and steal this election cycle.

That's why the GOP must not slack off. If it's not close, they can't steal it!

[The Great RJ]

Ironic that Obama’s promise of bringing hope and change was true in the sense that conservative values are now about to be restored in Washington.

[SnuffaBolshevik]

"They’re on the run. Double the rate of fire."

[BunnySlippers]

Let’s party like it’s 1894!

[GOP_Lady]

I’m ready, dear BunnySlippers!

[tcrlaf]

“DEMOCRATS WIPED OUT ! OBAMA’S WHITE HOUSE IN SHOCK !”

Sorry, the NYT will have a headline asking how STUPId the voters are.

[MIchaelTArchangel]

I hope Gallup is right and the conservatives take 110 seats in the House from the socialist maggots and 12 seats from the same group in the Senate. That would all but ensure 0bama became President NO.

[Bean Counter]

There is talk now that over-confidence among Conservatives is not the problem, rather under-estimating themselves and how potentially successful they about to be.

We still have this “Lame Duck” session of Congress ahead of us, and there’s just no telling what this crew is going to try and pull then. All the more reason to throw as many of them out the door in November as possible.