Posted on 10/04/2010 6:22:49 PM PDT by neverdem
As Americans turn their attention inward, China and Russia are beginning to make geopolitical moves that evoke nothing so much as the environment of the 1930s. I have written elsewhere about China's dispute with Japan over the Senkaku Islands and Beijing's resort to a direct confrontation over them in September. Russia added to Japan's troubles last week, when Dmitry Medvedev planned to make an unprecedented visit to the Kuril Islands in the north, which have been disputed by Japan and Russia since the end of World War II.
Medvedev's trip was curtailed by bad weather on this occasion (a verifiable excuse, incidentally). But his government has affirmed that he will visit the islands in the near future. In fact, it has doubled down by calling Japan's claims to the Kurils a "dead end" and flatly warning Japan against complaining about the visit.
Seen as a signal, this uncompromising Russian attitude is very different from the attitude shown by the same government almost exactly a year ago. In late September 2009, Medvedev was shaking hands with then-Prime Minister Hatoyama and vowing solemnly to "work together" to resolve the question of the Kuril Islands. Indeed, there was speculation at the time that Russia was wooing Japan, hoping to weaken Tokyo's ties with the U.S. As with the Senkakus dispute, the one over the Kurils involves economic claims. But Russia and Japan have set a standard for cooperative development in exploiting the natural gas of Russia's nearby Sakhalin Island. The ugly face shown by Russia in the past few days is a new one, at least where Japan is concerned.
Its significance cannot be overemphasized. In approaching this confrontation, Russia is effectively treating Japan — a G-8 nation, economic powerhouse, and U.S. ally — the way it treated Georgia in the months leading up to the 2008 invasion. The dispute is over tangible territory, and Russia is pressing its claims coincident with China's confrontational campaign to the south. Unless the U.S. steps in to prevent the extortion of Japan, the Kan government in Tokyo is faced with a choice between evils. To gain the support of either Moscow or Beijing, Japan would — at the very least — have to cede effective control of the islands in question. In all likelihood, Japan might see both island chains occupied by the other claimants.
Japan's other option is to assert its claims with military force. This is not infeasible if the Japanese choose their tactics carefully, but it would infuriate and galvanize Russia and China. Only one outcome can avert an onset of instability in the Far East: America enforcing Japan's position that the disputes over the islands must be resolved peacefully and not through extortion. Uttering sympathetic bromides will not suffice in this case. China and Russia have already proved that they are prepared to breach the conditions of good-faith resolutions. Direct assertion of a U.S. security interest is the only thing that will work — and the U.S posture must not be subverted by Russia or China turning this issue into a perpetual bargaining chip in larger, unrelated negotiations.
This is a bad trend that will not right itself. Either Obama stops it before it gets started, or all our security problems are about to get much harder.
I’d say it’s time for the Japanese to start defending their own territories. We can offer political support, but they’ve got to stand on their own now or they never will.
This is a bad trend that will not right itself. Either Obama stops it before it gets started, or all our security problems are about to get much harder.
>Dmitry Medvedev planned to make an unprecedented visit to the Kuril Islands in the north, which have been disputed by Japan and Russia since the end of World War II. >
It is only disputed by Japan AFAIK. Every other nation does recognize it as a Russian territory.
>Japan’s other option is to assert its claims with military force.>
LOL.
Japan's claim to the southern Kuriles goes back to the Edo period 1600 onward. Why would the world treat Russia's claims to them since '45 differently than they treated any other of Russia's bogus territorial claims?
The southern Kuriles in dispute were another land grab by Stalin in the last days of World War II.
"More than fifty years have passed since the end of World War II, and no peace treaty has been concluded between Japan and the former Soviet Union. The reason for this delay is the unresolved Northern Territory issue."
The whole world is seeing the price of backing down before the genocidal Neo-Soviet Medvedev regime. Medvedev is a mass murderer guilty of the extermination and ethnic cleansing of hundreds of thousands of innocent Georgian civilians. Medvedev and his KGB master Vlad Putin must both be tried and executed as war criminals and their savage army of conscripted rebel gangs must be disbanded or destroyed. The rabid red beast must be put down once and for all!
All they need is the will to do so.
If they don't have the will, we have no use for them.
They have the will and the power. We made them put in an article to their constitution to renounce force with the understanding that we would protect them. In a months time they could mobilize a well equipped land army and produce nuclear weaponry. In a years time they could field additional naval forces to add to the already powerful JMSDF. Once they do that they will have no use for us and we would lose several key bases.
We'd keep our bases.
However, it's time for Japan to step up and be all they can be.
If ANY nation in the world has had a free ride, it's Japan.
The should quadruple their defense budget and stand tall.
The only thing we forced into their constitution is non-aggression and nukes.
I say we give 'em a bye.
If Japan claimed the islands with their Self-Defense forces, there wouldn’t be much that Russia could do about it short of launching missiles.
For their Far East naval forces sorely lack the sort of Marine invasion capabilities necessary to expel any Japanese force that may take the islands.
The disputed four southernmost Kuril islands are worthless except for national pride. Russia also has no aims against Japan — If they wanted to conquer any more land than they already have, they’d rather have a warm weather Indian ocean port through Iran, which was their strategic plan in the 18th century. Right now, though, they’d rather get stronger economically.
Disagree. People with long memories have no desire to see Japan rearm the way she did in the 20's and 30's. Or acquire nuclear weapons, which would probably be guaranteed if the Japanese decided to go the rearmament route.
The current arrangement is a lot more comfortable for a lot of people and simplifies our diplomatic relations in Asia.
The ones who need to stand up are the Flips -- they're too preoccupied with fighting the Abu Sayyaf as if they had nothing bigger to worry about, such as resisting Chinese annexation of a big chunk of the Pacific.
The Japanese consider these islands important for their fishing industry. Also, possession of all the Kuriles effectively makes the Sea of Okhotsk a Russian lake.
>Baloney!
The southern Kuriles in dispute were another land grab by Stalin in the last days of World War II.>
I mean last time I’ve check my World map it was Russian. And my map is not printed in Russia.
>If Japan claimed the islands with their Self-Defense forces, there wouldn’t be much that Russia could do about it short of launching missiles.
For their Far East naval forces sorely lack the sort of Marine invasion capabilities necessary to expel any Japanese force that may take the islands.>
I’m sorry but that is a senile scenario. I don’t think anyone in Japan or somewhere else want to get into a shooting war with Russia.
...Dmitry Medvedev planned to make an unprecedented visit to the Kuril Islands in the north, which have been disputed by Japan and Russia since the end of World War II... calling Japan's claims to the Kurils a "dead end" and flatly warning Japan against complaining about the visit... this uncompromising Russian attitude is very different from the attitude shown by the same government almost exactly a year ago... The ugly face shown by Russia in the past few days is a new one, at least where Japan is concerned... Russia is effectively treating Japan -- a G-8 nation, economic powerhouse, and U.S. ally -- the way it treated Georgia in the months leading up to the 2008 invasion... Unless the U.S. steps in to prevent the extortion of Japan, the Kan government in Tokyo is faced with a choice between evils... Japan's other option is to assert its claims with military force. This is not infeasible if the Japanese choose their tactics carefully, but it would infuriate and galvanize Russia and China. Only one outcome can avert an onset of instability in the Far East: America enforcing Japan's position that the disputes over the islands must be resolved peacefully and not through extortion... and the U.S posture must not be subverted by Russia or China turning this issue into a perpetual bargaining chip in larger, unrelated negotiations... Either Obama stops it before it gets started, or all our security problems are about to get much harder.
“If Japan claimed the islands with their Self-Defense forces, there wouldn’t be much that Russia could do about it short of launching missiles.”
A phone call from US would rule Russian nukes out, but Russia will do whatever it can to save face. An embarrassing defeat would mean a lot.
And I doubt China would be stupid to gang up on the Japanese, considering that we may very well have a WW on our hands (India, Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, US and all our allies against Pakistan and few loser nations Russia + China can muster.)
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