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Tax Hikes and the 2011 Economic Collapse
Wall Street Journal ^ | Monday, June 7, 2010 | Arthur Laffer

Posted on 06/07/2010 2:12:53 PM PDT by Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Arthur Laffer explains how proposed January 2011 tax hikes could be creating terrible unintended consequences today, and are setting the stage for an epic collapse next year.

People can change the volume, the location and the composition of their income, and they can do so in response to changes in government policies.

It shouldn't surprise anyone that the nine states without an income tax are growing far faster and attracting more people than are the nine states with the highest income tax rates. People and businesses change the location of income based on incentives.

Likewise, who is gobsmacked when they are told that the two wealthiest Americans—Bill Gates and Warren Buffett—hold the bulk of their wealth in the nontaxed form of unrealized capital gains? The composition of wealth also responds to incentives. And it's also simple enough for most people to understand that if the government taxes people who work and pays people not to work, fewer people will work. Incentives matter.

The result will be a crash in tax receipts once the surge is past. If you thought deficits and unemployment have been bad lately, you ain't seen nothing yet.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economiccollapse; economy; laffer; taxes
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"People can also change the timing of when they earn and receive their income in response to government policies. According to a 2004 U.S. Treasury report, "high income taxpayers accelerated the receipt of wages and year-end bonuses from 1993 to 1992—over $15 billion—in order to avoid the effects of the anticipated increase in the top rate from 31% to 39.6%. At the end of 1993, taxpayers shifted wages and bonuses yet again to avoid the increase in Medicare taxes that went into effect beginning 1994."

"Just remember what happened to auto sales when the cash for clunkers program ended. Or how about new housing sales when the $8,000 tax credit ended? It isn't rocket surgery, as the Ivy League professor said."

Wouldn't it be nice if the American public elected representatives who possessed common sense?

1 posted on 06/07/2010 2:12:53 PM PDT by Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
Wouldn't it be nice if the American public elected representatives who possessed common sense?

Hey, they're "representative"...what more do you want?

2 posted on 06/07/2010 2:20:49 PM PDT by thulldud (Is it "alter or abolish" time yet?)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

I think this has been posted already, but it is a good (scary) piece. We aren’t enjoying the full splendor of what the dims have been doing yet.


3 posted on 06/07/2010 2:23:04 PM PDT by throwback ( The object of opening the mind, as of opening the mouth, is to shut it again on something solid)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

4 posted on 06/07/2010 2:23:22 PM PDT by Travis McGee (---www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com---)
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To: Abathar; Abcdefg; Abram; Abundy; akatel; albertp; AlexandriaDuke; Alexander Rubin; Allerious; ...
The result will be a crash in tax receipts once the surge is past. If you thought deficits and unemployment have been bad lately, you ain't seen nothing yet.



Libertarian ping! Click here to get added or here to be removed or post a message here!
View past Libertarian pings here
5 posted on 06/07/2010 2:34:47 PM PDT by bamahead (Few men desire liberty; most men wish only for a just master. -- Sallust)
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To: throwback

I would like to see this one go up repeatedly over several days. Everyone who reads FR should get a chance at it.


6 posted on 06/07/2010 2:35:18 PM PDT by arthurus ("If you don't believe in shooting abortionists, don't shoot an abortionist." -Ann C.)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
I've always liked Arthur Laffer and find his arguments thoughtful. But this time, I must disagree. He is confused when he states “unintended consequences”. Unintended?? I don't think so, very intentional.
7 posted on 06/07/2010 2:38:04 PM PDT by rigelkentaurus
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To: arthurus
Laffer hits the nail on the head, though I do question if we'll make it to 2011 before the crash.

I think this sums up the problem with the liberal mindset:

"The composition of wealth also responds to incentives. And it's also simple enough for most people to understand that if the government taxes people who work and pays people not to work, fewer people will work. Incentives matter."

8 posted on 06/07/2010 2:41:38 PM PDT by meyer (Big government is the enemy of freedom.)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Wouldn’t it be nice if the American people recognized common sense and fired these bastards, stopped electing them, and altogether elected honorable individuals who will deliberately limit their own power, and eliminate the Lobby industry as we know it.

If wishes were fishes I would be at the bottom of the sea....


9 posted on 06/07/2010 3:32:45 PM PDT by Danae (Don't like the Constitution, try living in a country with out one.)
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To: rigelkentaurus

Cloward and Piven (eternity piss upon them) got their puppets Frank, Dodd, Pelosi, Reid, and Obama into power, and they are very busily setting about robbing America blind to the point that the nation erupts into total chaos and violence.

It’s deliberate as all hell.


10 posted on 06/07/2010 3:36:07 PM PDT by Danae (Don't like the Constitution, try living in a country with out one.)
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To: AdmSmith; Berosus; bigheadfred; blueyon; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; Ernest_at_the_Beach; ...
Punk Monetarists Ping.
Arthur Laffer explains how proposed January 2011 tax hikes could be creating terrible unintended consequences today, and are setting the stage for an epic collapse next year.
Quibble -- the consequences are intended.
11 posted on 06/07/2010 3:36:57 PM PDT by SunkenCiv ("Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others." -- Otto von Bismarck)
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To: SunkenCiv

see my tagline


12 posted on 06/07/2010 3:37:40 PM PDT by 21twelve ( UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES MY ARSE: "..now begin the work of remaking America."-Obama, 1/20/09)
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To: rigelkentaurus

Like Bill O’Reilly, Laffer cannot force himself to believe that Obama’s aim is that everything America stands for must crash and burn.


13 posted on 06/07/2010 3:44:11 PM PDT by charlie72
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

There’s a guy over there that comments on articles. Man, he’s good.

Name of Dave Cavena

http://online.wsj.com/community/DaveCavena/activity


14 posted on 06/07/2010 3:47:46 PM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spirito Sancto.)
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To: charlie72

Why anyone still watched bor is beyond me.

He is blind as a bat and very often ignorant of many pertinent facts.


15 posted on 06/07/2010 3:48:24 PM PDT by GlockThe Vote
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To: thulldud

“When in the course of Human events, it becomes necessary...”

[in response to your tagline] ;-)

Funny thing though...We are not the ones causing this...While we have to sit back and watch the result of them bleeding out because they shot themselves in the foot years ago...

We are unfortunately riding on the big coat-tails of an inevitable economic failure...

We had better be preparing for a serious loss of freedom and liberty, not to mention being able to go buy the things we need, yet do not store enough of, from WalMart, et. al.

If the bubble doesn’t burst by the end of the year, I will be surprised...But then again, the bubble is going to burst anyway...Just a question of when...


16 posted on 06/07/2010 3:49:22 PM PDT by stevie_d_64 (I'm jus' sayin')
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

While Laffer is once again right, I wish he would have elaborated on how wrong, wrong will be.

That is, since the bad decisions have been made, when disaster strikes, what will be the ill thought out, panicked administration response be?

I am guessing that they will try to alternatively hyperinflate the economy, and re-denominate the currency. This will mean that once what we can buy now for a dollar, costs 1000 dollars because of inflation, they will just declare that the last three zeroes don’t mean anything, so it will cost a dollar to buy a dollar’s worth of merchandise again.

But that simplistic idea hits the brick wall of reality hard.


17 posted on 06/07/2010 3:52:12 PM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy

Savers crushed. Women and children hit hardest.

Your scenario strikes me as very plausible.


18 posted on 06/07/2010 3:59:50 PM PDT by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (Liberal are like termites eating away our cultural foundations.)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

This is awful. Some are saying that they Bush Tax Cuts cannot be continued because of the size of the deficits. It’s damned if you do, damned if you don’t. I’ll admit that Obama walked into a mess, but he’s made it many times worse.


19 posted on 06/07/2010 4:21:38 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Obama's more worried about Israelis building houses than he is about Islamists building atomic bombs)
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To: Travis McGee

Great chart, thanks.

Off the 200, ready to breakdown past the 50.


20 posted on 06/07/2010 4:22:24 PM PDT by waus (FUBO UFCMF, Just in case I stuttered, FUBO)
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