Posted on 05/12/2010 6:41:00 AM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
Mark Critz, a former aide to the late John Murtha and the Democratic nominee to replace him, has pulled out to a 6-point lead in the special election for Pennsylvania's 12th district, according to a new Susquehanna poll. Critz leads Republican Tim Burns 44%-38% with less than a week to go.
The Johnstown-based district in southwestern Pennsylvania has swing potential, despite the overwhelming Democratic registration advantage and Murtha's dominance in the district for the last 36 years. It's the only district that voted for both John Kerry and John McCain.
Critz is running as a continuation of Murtha -- a strategy that could be detrimental to his chances, as we've seen two incumbents in the last several days lose the nomination of their own party. And two more incumbents are in danger next Tuesday, as well, as Sens. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) and Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) go up against formidable challengers.
Both national parties are spending big on this race, as it could provide a boost in momentum for either. That includes Republicans, who haven't won a competitive House special election this cycle.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Instead of flaming out in 30 seconds with a knee jerk hyper ignorant rant, this time go actually look at the data on this district and learn the facts.
It ain’t over til it’s over.
Can the Tea Party get workers on the ground? Work phones, put out signs, etc? There’s still a week and a day is a lifetime in politics.
It is an especially uphill battle because the GOP establishment picked Burns over Russell who had run against Murtha in 2008 and did a good job given the circumstances. Now Burns and Russell are running against one another in the primary to see who runs in November. Even if Burns were to win, he might not be the Rep nominee in November.
The tea party folks would have preferred Russell.
Bump, I see this type of voter in my bar all the time. There is no reasoning with them. Satan himself could be on the ballot and "they" would vote for him. Hopeless.
Last election, Murtha called his constituents racist rednecks. They still voted for him. They will vote for anything with a D behind it.
whatever you say polyanna.
It is a 'Rat district in a blue state. It is a winnable race, but a long shot, and uphill struggle all the way. We may see a high-water mark kind of result, with the 'Pubs coming close and proclaiming a "moral victory" (i.e., losers) and "we'll get 'em next time", then once the 'Rat is entrenched going back to 20 or 30 point blowouts. Some areas of the country are just that way, and in PA, lately, it seems to be the trend.
PA 12 voted for Bush in 2004 and McCain in 2008, so they WILL go for a candidate with an R after his name. Like many of these rust belt districts (inc. WV-1), they consist of conservative southern Democrats who like their “good old boys” and consistently re-elect incumbents like Murtha and Mollohan (who just got ousted finally). I think it’s more allegiance to the “good old boys” than it is party ideology.
Critz is tied to Murtha so that might have some bearing here. Or the poll could be totally off base because Burns’ polls have him leading.
Who will have the most energized voters? I believe it will be Burns, not Critz.
Well, there's your problem.
From the Pittsburgh Tribune:
“Burns’ internal polling shows him leading Critz by 7 percentage points among voters who can correctly name the election day, which shows “intensity is on our side,” said campaign manager Kent Gates.”
PA-12 voted for Kerry in 2004.
Murtha called his voters racist and rednecks. Yet he still won by 19%. Why are we even having a conversation about what type of district this is?
You’re right, that we are competitive here puts many many other Dems at risk.
If the GOP can come within even a few percentage points of the Dem in this race I will be ecstatic. The Dems will be loading their pants if that happens.
Chickens ain’t hatched yet, if this is a Dem leaning push poll then this race is a dead heat.
I stand corrected. Thanks.
Like most Dems, Critz is trying to run like a conservative on the big issues.
No they didn’t. Burns is a conservative, and he won a fair and open primary against Russell. There was no “picking” in this district as there was in NY-23.
Despite losing the special election nomination tonight, Russell has filed to run in the primary, which is also scheduled to be held on 5/18. Russell complained in the early stages of the race that party leaders favored Burns because of his ability to self-fund the short special election race. And believing the fix was in -- like ex-Treas. Barbara Hafer did on the Dem side -- Russell suspected that county party leaders would stack the convo deck with Burns' delegates.
But Burns' promise of personal cash must've been hard to ignore for GOPers. As of Dec. '09, he had already put $75K into the race. Still, in order to overcome the Dem registration advantage in the CD, and his lack of name ID, he'll need to make a much more significant investment.
The real GOP primary will be on May 18. We will see how Russell fares with the GOP voters and not just the establishment.
Thanks for the ping, Trib.
Bump up to smooth & jaz - lots of misinformation being battered around above. ;^)
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