Talk of North Korean Collapse Rekindled By Currency Reform Fallout

VOA News ^ | 04/30/10 | Kurt Achin

[TigerLikesRooster]

Talk of North Korean Collapse Rekindled By Currency Reform Fallout

Kurt Achin | Seoul30 April 2010

For the first time in years, international experts say North Korea's isolated government is increasingly frail, and potentially unstable. Part of the reason, they say, is Pyongyang's attempt at currency reform last year.

/snip

"The currency revaluation has shaken the foundation, as North Korea continues to be penetrated by the forces of globalization," said Scott Snyder.

The currency misstep play into what some scholars describe as a "perfect storm" of factors that could shatter the fragile stability North Korea has enjoyed for decades.

/snip

He says there are now two kinds of people within North Korea's elite, those who benefit from the market, and those who benefit from restraining the market. The tension between those two groups, he says, may well lead to a North Korean "meltdown."

[TigerLikesRooster]

Kim Jong-il's nuclear blackmail and extorting aids are attempts to convince people that he is the only source of foods and other goods and without him they have none of them. Even when he allows foreign investment, he wants to be structured in a way to minimize the exposure of his people to outsiders. However, the dire economic situation for more than 15 years forced him to allow limited individual businesses as a stop-gap measure. Party officials need to maintain their living standard and ordinary people have to feed themselves. Over time, the market became a new center of power, to which people have increasing allegiance to. People and even officials found a way to meet their needs outside suffocating control of the state. Kim Jong-il is now facing an invisible rival, who has 'invisible hands.' For the past few years, he tried hard to beat back the invisible rival. It refused to go away. Pressed for time due to his illness and need to install his successor fast, he had to force the change with draconian measures, and it now backfired badly. Only the sweeping bloody purge of officials can eradicate the 'insidious' market influence into party ranks. However, that would also trigger the bloody power struggle of life and death which can topple the regime.

[TigerLikesRooster]

P!

[Oceander]

[rdl6989]

Great post!

[GeronL]

They need to print up a few more boatloads of US $100 bills.

[Pan_Yan]

For the first time in years, international experts say North Korea's isolated government is increasingly frail, and potentially unstable

I hate to point out the obvious, but was it strong and solid before? I think the NK government could have been toppled years, if not decades, before with the right nudge. Unfortunately, the 'Sunshine Policy' and other nonsense just helped prop them up.

[OrangeHoof]

Don’t laugh to hard. Our currency isn’t very strong either and, with a communist in charge, you know there’ll be no significant improvement for some time to come.

[caww]

I was watching more videos of korea the other night.....they are in such bad shape there and that’s putting it mildly...

So can the one side topple the other and if so will it do more than just put in office another Kim? They all know how to play the people having served under Kim....I am really interested to hear how the people will be better of ....do we know much about this other side?

[MetaThought]

Yes, we’re having some economic problems. Lets not overdo the gloom and doom, ok ?

[tanuki]

I agree. I don’t think the regime (or any such regime) can be toppled by popular uprising alone.

His inner circle, however, is small and insular. If he keeps sending them to the firing squad in order to assuage his anxieties, at some point enough of them might decide to band together and seize the moment to topple him. Better to band together than hang separately.

[Sawdring]

North Korea has enjoyed for decades

Who enjoyed what?

[Noob1999]

Thanks Tiger!

I guess that the people of N Korea will have to dig deeper, as they won’t be able to eat grass any longer, they’ll need to get down to the dirty roots!

I’ve never understood why the people just don’t take on the government with pitchforks, shovels, whatever they have.

Dear Leader be damned!

[gwilhelm56]

**His inner circle, however, is small and insular. . . the firing squad in order ... decide to band together and seize the moment to topple him. Better to band together than hang separately.**

With the exception of the firing squad, that sounds alot like Fuhrer Obama’s regime.

[Joe Boucher]

Your usual very good post Tiger.