Measuring The Coming GOP Tsunami (Very bad news for the Rats alert!)

New Republic ^ | February 23, 2010 | Jonathan Chait

[Zakeet]

Harry Joe crunches the numbers and, based on the generic balloting right now, says the House is all but gone for the Democrats:

With current polling in conjunction with Bafumi et al.'s paper predicting a Republican national vote between 53.6% and 54.7%, the Republicans could easily gain 50-60 seats from their current 178. Gains of greater than 60 seats also look quite possible. Even in the best case scenario for the Democrats, it would seem that holding the House would be very, very difficult.

The whole post is worth reading -- he's not just pulling numbers out of his ass. This graph, an extrapolation as he concedes, suggests the possibility that the election good be literally off-the-charts bad for Democrats:

Of course, it's also possible that the worst has passed for the party, and that they can rally the base with a health care bill, maybe get some decent economic news, and just suffer a normal terrible midterm election rather than a history-making one.

Note; The article underlying the news story, Republican Blizzard on the Generic Ballot, is also worth a read IMHO. If you check it out, try not to laugh too loudly at the anguished comment from the anonymous libtard at the bottom of the page.

[wild74]

Look at the comments this person says is the reason for the republican predicted win As a Democratic voter, I look forward in trembling to the rest of the Obama administration. Here are the major decisions Obama has made: 1.Ignoring previous Republican crimes, misdemeanors and profligacy 
– e.g. tax cuts for the wealthy. 
 2. Supporting a stingy stimulus that was half of what was needed and 
was one-third tax breaks, not jobs. 
3. Killing the only option that would have slowed the cost of health 
care & led to universal coverage. 
4. Accelerating the Bush bailout, $ 4.3 Trillions in bailouts, 
guarantees and purchasing assets from the private sector at well above market 
value.
 5. Escalating a meaningless and fruitless war.
 6. Gutting real financial reform and substitute finger wagging and silly 
taxes and fees, while banking fees continue up, lending freezes and credit 
tightens. 
7. Not helping people with bankruptcy and mortgages remediation – 
accelerating middle class decline.
 8. Fiddling around and not passing a jobs bill.
 Taken together, Obama's decisions represent Republican policies (either accelerating previous Republican policies or selecting corporate welfare over the public welfare). It is not surprising that the Democrats who've chosen to support Obama's Republican policies will find themselves defeated by Republicans. Obama turned his back on the very voters who put him into office.

[skeeter]

The ones who win the primaries so ... VOTE IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES!!!

Sadly, THAT is where the battle to save the USA will be won or lost.

[concerned about politics]

and that they can rally the base with a health care bill An idiot supreme! For every base voter they get they'll stir up two broken-glass anti voters.

Our health care system is fine. It's not broken at all. The lawyers are going nuts, though, and driving the cost too high. End the get rich quick ambulance chasing, and the cost will plummet. To make it even more affordable for those who choose to buy it, let people buy across state lines. Why not just lower the cost and end it there?
There's already government welfare for the unemployed by choice and the elderly. So, they're already set.
Problem sloved.

[Between the Lines]

If we do regain majorities in congress it is important to remember that this is just a backlash from bad governance. If we can't do any better we will be out the door just as quick.

[RWB Patriot]

You forgot one more:

3. Republicans controlling Congress gives Obama a scapegoat to blame in 2012.

[Between the Lines]

Tort reform is a good start. In the United States the number, curriculum, and size of medical schools are restricted by state licensing boards controlled by representatives of state and national medical societies. This has the effect of limiting the supply of physicians and inflating the cost of medical care and needs to be changed also.

[fortheDeclaration]

I believe much of this is a generational issue.

We need younger people in that see the immediate consequences of the spending and growth of government on their lives.

Too many of these guys are in their 70's and have never worked a real job a day in their lives and are passing laws they will never have to live with.

[airborne]

Good news for America only if the tsunami sweeps the RINO’s out to sea with the Rats.

[fortheDeclaration]

This is only to get worse, not better.

Obama knows that in Nov. his unrestricted reign of terror will end, so he is going to push everything he can until then.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Since the end of Reconstruction the largest gain for the GOP in the House was the 130 seats, picked up in 1894 in the 2nd half of Pres. Cleveland’s last term. The GOP went from 124 to 254 members in that election.

[SunkenCiv]

with Bafumi et al.'s paper predicting a Republican national vote between 53.6% and 54.7%, the Republicans could easily gain 50-60 seats from their current 178. Gains of greater than 60 seats also look quite possible. Even in the best case scenario for the Democrats, it would seem that holding the House would be very, very difficult.

Hey, I'm starting to feel that hope of change we've all heard too much about. Thanks Zakeet.

[meadsjn]

Good news for America only if the tsunami sweeps the RINO’s out to sea with the Rats.

A RINO majority in the House could spell the end of the Republican Party. Obama and the Senate would push through all the commie stuff they want, and the GOP would get the blame for the next century.

RINOs must be defeated in the primaries, then the Dems in November, in great measure.

[Windflier]

Obama turned his back on the very voters who put him into office.

Do these people see the world through kooky goggles 24/7, or what?

[ODDITHER]

You would have to believe that people who appose them are thinking “If only the Democrats could pass Cap and Trade - Health Care or Card Check. I just know everyone would forgive them and be incredibly grateful and would bow down before the Lords and Masters and Messiah and kiss their feet.

In order to believe that passing a socialist program would make them more popular and allow them to win in Nov. you would have to believe that most Americans including the Tea Party people are upset because Congress has failed to take our rights away and increase our taxes.