Skip to comments.Rasmussan: Pence 47&, Bayh 44%
Posted on 01/25/2010 6:42:49 AM PST by MarkAccord
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I would hardly call that lambasting. I didn’t mean to offend and I did see your correction after I posted but there are a lot of FReepers who seem to have their heads in the clouds. You made an honest mistake. The thing is Boehner will be Speaker no matter how much we want someone else. Oh well. It will do Pence’s profile better to be in the Senate anyway. Speakers don’t run for POTUS or VP.
ND 42 Hoeven
DE 43 Castle
AR 44 (field)
NV 45 (field)
CO 46 Norton
PA 47 Toomey
IN 48 Pence
I don’t see the GOP picking up NY or IL’s senate seats, even in this climate (but then again, who would have foreseen them pickign up MA’s?) California is also a long shot, but more doable, based on the polling. I agree that we will, or at least most likely will, take ND, DE, AR, NV, CO, Pa, and now IN. I would add NH (where Hodes leads the Dem by 9% or so) and MO (where Blunt leads Carnahan by 9%).
Let’s not forget to focus on the AZ and FL Senate races, too. Both will be easy retentions for the GOP, so the question is WHICH GOPer will retain them?
In FL, Rubio is very competitive, and could knock Crist off if we all get behind him and get busy. In AZ, Hayworth could do the same to McCain. Two RINOs down, two net pickups for conservatives.
My analysis assumes holding all the GOP retirement seats, OH, FL, NH, KY, & MO.
This year the Dems play defense.
I was assuming that we’d win IL, making IN number 49.
And that would make WI, NY, WA and CA our hypothetical seats number 50, 51, 52 and 53. If we win half of those four, we’re still at 51.
Until a couple of weeks before the Jan. 19 election, I did not believe that Scott Brown could actually win. Well, until now, I did not believe that the GOP could actually take back the Senate in 2010. But numbers don’t lie, and it could actually freaking happen. It is certainly not the likeliest of scenarios, but it could happen, and the odds aren’t all that low. Heck, we’re halfway to 49 already.
Expect both Justices Stevens and Ginsburg to announce their retirement soon.
We definitely can pick up all three of those (IL, NY, CA). None are long shots in my view. Boxer right now is at 46% versus all of her GOP incumbents - she’s in BIG trouble. IL with Kirk is probably as likely a pickup as DE with Castle, if not, more likely. Gillibrand could easily lose if we can get a decent candidate.
NH and MO would make 53 - an enormous net gain for the GOP.
As for the other two internal battles, Rubio will win in FL and McCain has to be favored in AZ. He is an incumbent with a huge warchest and Kyl and Palin will come out strong for him. I don’t see the wisdom in removing McCain if it causes independents to step back from the GOP in the fall which Obama, the national Democrats, and the media will drive home if he does lose.
Huh? The idea of Pence running against Bayh only surfaced seriously a few days ago. According to articles, there are at least 3 R's who threw their hats in the ring, long before Scott Brown's win made a Bayh defeat even plausible. If Pence declines to run, it might only mean he's not a craven opportunist willing to shove people out of his way for political gain.
Personally, I'd rather see him wait for a shot at the governor's seat, where he could pick up some needed executive experience if he wants to run for prez. There's a reason why senators and reps have historically not been elected to the presidency. The anomaly of this last election should not be seen as precedent for undoing the wisdom of the electorate in that regard. What we have in the WH now is a clear reminder of just why having executive experience is so essential.
I just realized that I didn’t even mention the CT seat, which would be number 54 for the GOP. So winning any 2 of the following 5 Senate races could give the GOP 51: WI, NY, WA, CA and CT.
Depends on the kind of "independent" you're talking about. Remember, "Independents" aren't some sort of monolithic body of people. There's a reason they're "independents." The kind of Independents that McCain appeals to are not necessarily the kind of independents we WANT to appeal to, they're definitely not the kind of independents that the Tea Parties appeal to.
An interesting aside, in 1980, four Senators (three ‘Rats and one RINO) were defeated in their party’s primaries.
I can guarantee you that Scott Brown appealed to a larger swath of independents than your holier than thou approach would allow.
RCP has caught up to us.
Although CT without Dodd looks a lot better for the Dems than it did with Dodd.
No he’s not, not because he’s conservative but because his dad was a total moonbat.
Hayworth will win the general election if he wins the primary.
No one outside of AZ will care. I don’t think the rats “Republicans are purging moderates” storyline will register with the voters.
You don’t think the GOP fratriciding the former nominee of their own party for POTUS won’t register with anyone? I think it most certainly will.
I think it’s inside baseball for independents who care about mostly about the economy right now and a have loose grasp of what ideology is. The media will play it up, I don’t think it will have much effect. On the flip side it may energize conservatives.
Even if it would “hurt” it’s the right thing to do. Hayworth is better, McCain isn’t entitled to be reelected just because he’s the incumbent. At least that’s my opinion on incumbents. Hayworth wouldn’t have too tough a time in the GE in Republican state in a Republican year. Unless maybe McCain decided to stab him in the back and endorse the democrat or something. But that would only validate that it was the right move to replace him.
I believe that rumor that McCain considered being Kerry’s running mate. It was ludicrous to nominate him for President in 2008.
Oh, of course. With Dodd, it was for a time our 41st seat, whereas now if we win CT we likely would have won a majority.
The thing about CT was that we always knew that if Dodd dropped out that Blumenthal would run and that it would go from a near slam-dunk to a 3-point attempt. The Democrats don’t have any candidates in reserve that would be favored in the general in the event that the unpopular Reid or Lincoln drop out.
Oscar Goodman could make Nevada close, but he's running for Governor, as an Independent.
Arkansas Governor Beebee could make it a race but why give up the governorship for a brutal race for Senate.
Goodman announced yesterday that he will not run for governor and plans to stay as mayor for the rest of his term. I guess he could change his mind and run for the Senate if Reid drops out, but I doubt it; besides, Goodman’s recent disaffiliation from the Democrat Party may prevent him from running as a Democrat in the primary.
And, yeah, Beebe will definitely stay put in the governorship. Heck, he’s probably pondering a 2016 presidential run after 4 more years there.
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