We definitely can pick up all three of those (IL, NY, CA). None are long shots in my view. Boxer right now is at 46% versus all of her GOP incumbents - she’s in BIG trouble. IL with Kirk is probably as likely a pickup as DE with Castle, if not, more likely. Gillibrand could easily lose if we can get a decent candidate.
NH and MO would make 53 - an enormous net gain for the GOP.
As for the other two internal battles, Rubio will win in FL and McCain has to be favored in AZ. He is an incumbent with a huge warchest and Kyl and Palin will come out strong for him. I don’t see the wisdom in removing McCain if it causes independents to step back from the GOP in the fall which Obama, the national Democrats, and the media will drive home if he does lose.
Depends on the kind of "independent" you're talking about. Remember, "Independents" aren't some sort of monolithic body of people. There's a reason they're "independents." The kind of Independents that McCain appeals to are not necessarily the kind of independents we WANT to appeal to, they're definitely not the kind of independents that the Tea Parties appeal to.
Hayworth will win the general election if he wins the primary.
No one outside of AZ will care. I don’t think the rats “Republicans are purging moderates” storyline will register with the voters.