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China's "Underground Great Wall" and Nuclear Deterrence
Jamestown Foundation China Brief ^ | 12/16/2009 | Russell Hsiao

Posted on 12/18/2009 11:04:57 PM PST by bruinbirdman

In early December, the People’s Liberation Army's (PLA) publication, China Defense Daily (Zhongguo Guofang Bao), published a report that provided a rare glimpse into an underground tunnel that is being built by the Second Artillery Corps (SAC)—the PLA's strategic missile forces—in the mountainous regions of Hebei Province in northern China. The network of tunnels reportedly stretches for more than 3,107 miles (Ta Kung Pao, December 11; Xinhua News Agency, December 14). The revelation of the semi-underground tunnel highlights the strides being made by China's nuclear modernization efforts, and underscores a changing deterrent relationship between the United States and China.


China's "underground Great Wall"

The labyrinthine tunnel system, dubbed by the Chinese-media as the "Underground Great Wall” (Dixia Changcheng), was built for concealing, mobilizing and deploying China's growing arsenal of nuclear weapons. According to military experts cited by various reports, the main purpose of the underground tunnel is to provide the SAC with a credible second-strike capability. The building of an underground tunnel for this purpose is consistent with China's evolving nuclear doctrine from its traditional posture of "minimum deterrence" to a doctrine of "limited deterrence," since the subterranean bunkers strengthen the survivability of China's nuclear forces and bolster its nuclear deterrence posture.

Analysts have long speculated that the SAC' most important underground missile positions were located in the mountainous area in northern China. The geography of this region is cut by steep cliffs and canyons, and therefore suited for use in covering the network of tunnels that is 3,017 miles and can feed a web of underground launch silos. According to a military analyst cited by Hong Kong-based Ta Kung Pao, "the outermost layer is 1,000 meters [3,280 feet] deep and covered with soil that does not include any artificial reinforcements" (Ta Kung Pao, December 11; Xinhua News Agency, December 14). Moreover, the Chinese reports described the tunnel system in terms of "hard and deeply buried targets" (HDBTs), which typically refers to facilities a few hundred feet deep in "underground installations." In the of case of strategic nuclear missiles, it would mean that all preparations can be completed underground, and the transportation of missiles, equipments and personnel through a network of underground corridors by rail cars or heavy-duty trailers to fixed launch sites can not be detected from observations on the ground (Ta Kung Pao, December 11; News.sina.com, December 13; Xinhua News Agency, December 14).

The SAC arsenal of land-based nuclear warheads is believed to include the DF-3A, DF-4, DF-5 (CSS-4), DF-21, DF-31 and the DF-31A. These land-based ballistic missiles have a range of 200 to 5,000 kilometers. According to one U.S.-estimate, "China has approximately 176 deployed warheads, plus an unknown number of stored warheads, for a total stockpile of approximately 240 warheads" (Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Vol. 64, No. 3).

This report is not the first time that the existence of a tunnel of such magnitude was revealed. As early as 1995, according to a report in the Liberation Army Daily cited by Ta Kung Pao, a SAC project called the "Great Wall" was completed after 10 years of construction through the labor of "tens of thousands" of army engineers. Furthermore, the Chinese-television program, "Documentary for Military," aired by Chinese-state run television network CCTV on March 24, 2008, also revealed the status of an underground nuclear counter-strike project called the "great wall project" (Ta Kung Pao, December 11; News.sina.com, December 13).

An article published in the Taiwan-based Asia-Pacific Defense Magazine, entitled "A Destructive Projection Power: PLA Second Artillery Corps' Long-range Guided Missiles," by former Taiwanese Vice Admiral Lan Ning-li, included an analysis that also discussed underground installations of the Second Artillery Corps. According to Vice Admiral Lan's assessment: "The early version of China's mid-to long-range missiles had all been deployed above ground and were vulnerable to detection by spy satellites and attacks by interceptor missiles. That prompted the Chinese military to move all of their missiles hundreds of meters underground" (Ta Kung Pao, December 11; Chosun Ilbo, December 14). Moreover, a Hong Kong-based military analyst cited by Ta Kung Pao suggested that the timing of the open declaration about China's nuclear modernization before negotiations on the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty may be meant to draw attention to China's nuclear stature (Ta Kung Pao, December 11; News.sina.com, December 13).

Yet, while deterrence assumes that a more secure second-strike capability could enhance stability by causing adversaries to act more cautiously, some analysts have pointed out that strategic stability may not be the necessary outcome of China's deployment of a secure second-strike capability (See "The Future of Chinese Deterrence Strategy," China Brief, March 4). Since China continues to conceal details about the size and composition of its nuclear stockpile, this may lead to more concerns from China's regional neighbors over Beijing's nuclear modernization.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; chinesemilitary; chinesenukes; nucleardeterrent; nukes; pla; tunnels; undergroundbases

1 posted on 12/18/2009 11:04:57 PM PST by bruinbirdman
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To: bruinbirdman

Gosh, you mean the hoards of Chinese environmental groups didn’t put a stop to this?


2 posted on 12/18/2009 11:14:19 PM PST by historyrepeatz
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To: bruinbirdman
Not sure what to make of this open declaration of something that has been known in intelligence circles for sometime...

Almost "inscrutable"?

3 posted on 12/18/2009 11:33:24 PM PST by SuperLuminal (Where is another agitator for republicanism like Sam Adams when we need him?)
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To: bruinbirdman

All of China's operational missile bases in red.
4 posted on 12/18/2009 11:43:41 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld ("We will either find a way, or make one."Hannibal/Carthaginian Military Commander)
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To: bruinbirdman

Lets get with PUTIN n Nuke ‘em now. They are polluting and heating the earth to death and must be stopped. Isn’t that what Hugo said today in Copenhagen?


5 posted on 12/18/2009 11:49:39 PM PST by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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Chinese ICBM base

Chinese ICBM inventory
6 posted on 12/18/2009 11:52:59 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld ("We will either find a way, or make one."Hannibal/Carthaginian Military Commander)
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To: sonofstrangelove
That shows how Bill Clinton got so rich.

7 posted on 12/19/2009 12:20:48 AM PST by BenLurkin
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To: BenLurkin

You bet. His administration sold alot of high technology such as GPS and supercomputers to the PLA


8 posted on 12/19/2009 12:26:52 AM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld ("We will either find a way, or make one."Hannibal/Carthaginian Military Commander)
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To: BenLurkin

Today, China is using Loral satellites to perform all weather bombing using a “western” based navigation system in their modified Russian SU-27 FLANKER jet fighters. These navigation aids were originally sold to China under the condition they would be used on “civilian” airliners


9 posted on 12/19/2009 12:29:34 AM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld ("We will either find a way, or make one."Hannibal/Carthaginian Military Commander)
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To: BenLurkin

Another US, high-tech, upgrade for the benefit of China’s Generals and Commissars is their new secure military communication system. China is now using US built secure encoding systems to protect their military satellite and global communications. This 21st century system is a decades leap forward for the Chinese, who previously depended on former Soviet built analog scramblers to protect their highest military orders


10 posted on 12/19/2009 12:30:36 AM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld ("We will either find a way, or make one."Hannibal/Carthaginian Military Commander)
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68; jhpigott; onyx; Nachum; SunkenCiv; SJackson

*PING*


11 posted on 12/19/2009 4:13:21 AM PST by hennie pennie
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To: hennie pennie

Thanks hennie pennie.


12 posted on 12/19/2009 5:06:01 AM PST by SunkenCiv (My Sunday Feeling is that Nothing is easy. Goes for the rest of the week too.)
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To: hennie pennie

Could you please add me to your ping list?


13 posted on 12/19/2009 4:49:35 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld ("We will either find a way, or make one."Hannibal/Carthaginian Military Commander)
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To: TomasUSMC
Lets get with PUTIN n Nuke ‘em now.

Why would you "get with PUTIN" and nuke China? Why wouldn't you get with China and nuke Russia instead? Russia has a larger nuclear arsenal and is less plugged into the global economy. And Russia, overall, has been less cooperative with the US and Europe than China.

Unless of course, you have a different agenda that is more visible on less politically correct websites ;)

They are polluting and heating the earth to death and must be stopped.

China emits less CO2 than most if not all of the developed nations on a per capita basis. And when you add up Europe and North America, which has less people than China combined, the West still emits more CO2 as a whole.

14 posted on 12/22/2009 4:42:24 PM PST by ponder life
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To: ponder life

Because China is at war with US. It is destroying US with its Trade Imbalance. It is having more and more influence in our Government every year. They have the biggest surplus of money in the history of record keeping. They are copying our patents. And they are polluting the earth to the max. Per capita doesn’t count because they have the highest popultation on earth. They are the last and biggest Communist Nation.

Enough reasons


15 posted on 12/22/2009 10:03:39 PM PST by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: TomasUSMC
Because China is at war with US.

That couldn't be further from the truth. And lets not forget your original comment regarding "getting together with Putin". Between the two countries, China, without a doubt, has been more cooperative with the US than Russia. Yet, you want to "get with Putin"?

It is destroying US with its Trade Imbalance.

I don't believe trade imbalance will destroy the US. America's trade imbalance existed before China came along. The trade imbalance does weaken the dollar, in the long run. Yet ironically, and some of this is happening, some of the labor intensive manufacturing is coming back to the US because of the weakened dollar.

It is having more and more influence in our Government every year.

More than Europe or Asia or Latin America or the Middle East?

They have the biggest surplus of money in the history of record keeping.

They have the larget foreign reserves, but if you measure China's reserves on a per capita basis, they don't stand out at all.

They are copying our patents.

Ironically, strengthening patent laws in China actually makes China stronger in the long run. So, as much as you criticize China for it (weak patent enforcement), you appear to be the kind of person who would resent China gaining any technological edge as a result of her strengthening patent laws.

And they are polluting the earth to the max.

China is working to clean up the environment. But don't get CO2 emissions confused with pollution. As a whole, the West still emits more CO2 than China.

Per capita doesn’t count because they have the highest popultation on earth.

It has to. You can't relegate China to the same CO2 requirements as Canada anymore than you can relegate the US to the same requirements as Denmark.

They are the last and biggest Communist Nation.

In some areas, they are more free market than the US.

Enough reasons

The only reason I would agree with you, is if I was someone who wanted to preserve the old order.

16 posted on 12/23/2009 2:04:53 PM PST by ponder life
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To: ponder life

Thanks for making my arguments stronger.


17 posted on 12/23/2009 11:05:41 PM PST by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: TomasUSMC
Thanks for making my arguments stronger.

Well, I wouldn't say I'm making them stronger as I am giving a different perspective that is more equitable.

18 posted on 12/29/2009 6:58:15 PM PST by ponder life
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