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AP IMPACT: Statisticians reject global cooling (find no evidence of global cooling) ..`Sigh`..
AP on Yahoo ^ | 10/26/09 | Seth Borenstein - ap

Posted on 10/26/2009 12:55:40 PM PDT by NormsRevenge

WASHINGTON – Have you heard that the world is now cooling instead of warming? You may have seen some news reports on the Internet or heard about it from a provocative new book.

Only one problem: It's not true, according to an analysis of the numbers done by several independent statisticians for The Associated Press.

The case that the Earth might be cooling partly stems from recent weather. Last year was cooler than previous years. It's been a while since the super-hot years of 1998 and 2005. So is this a longer climate trend or just weather's normal ups and downs?

In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Extended News; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: apimpact; capandtrade; envirojunkscience; globalcooling; globalwarming; hoax; reject; statisticians; unitednations
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Noodleheads... Nincompoops.. and Neanderthals Believe in Global Varming.
1 posted on 10/26/2009 12:55:40 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
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soon to be Hopenhagen attendees .. on our dime via the UN.


2 posted on 10/26/2009 12:57:20 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard)
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To: NormsRevenge

Global Cooling Deniers!

Global warming good, global cooling bad. The current global climate is in a state of global warming and has been for thousands of years. Global cooling means an ice age, which is the most common global climate state.


3 posted on 10/26/2009 12:58:34 PM PDT by TheDon
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Hoaxes are big money these days.

People walk around a crater near the northern Latvian town of Mazsalaca. A telephone company Monday said it had dreamed up a purported meteorite strike in Latvia as a publicity stunt. (AFP/Ilmars Znotins)


4 posted on 10/26/2009 12:58:45 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard)
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To: NormsRevenge
It's not true, according to an analysis of the numbers done by several independent statisticians for The Associated Press.

Oxymoron?

5 posted on 10/26/2009 12:59:00 PM PDT by Tenacious 1 (Government For the People - an obviously concealed oxymoron)
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To: TheDon

All just part of the Grand Cycle of Life here.. but all them fellas with degrees need to impress chicks somehow. ;-)


6 posted on 10/26/2009 1:00:05 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard)
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To: NormsRevenge
President Barack Obama weighed in on the topic Friday at MIT. He said some opponents "make cynical claims that contradict the overwhelming scientific evidence when it comes to climate change — claims whose only purpose is to defeat or delay the change that we know is necessary."

Obama said it, so it's probably not true.

7 posted on 10/26/2009 1:00:22 PM PDT by Need4Truth (Who can reprogram the Branch Carbonians?)
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To: NormsRevenge
The experts found no true temperature declines over time.

Too bad! I hereby declare a consensus and the science to be "settled".
8 posted on 10/26/2009 1:00:38 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: NormsRevenge

WTF!? The AP is MAKING news and then reporting it. How soon before the AP starts killing people and claims there is a serial killer on the loose?


9 posted on 10/26/2009 1:03:41 PM PDT by LeonardFMason
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To: NormsRevenge
Global warming skeptics base their claims on an unusually hot year in 1998. Since then, they say, temperatures have dropped — thus, a cooling trend. But it's not that simple.

Since 1998, temperatures have dipped, soared, fallen again and are now rising once more.

It seems to me, this same thing has been going on for the most part of the last hundreds of millions of years. But now we call it Man Made Global Warming.

10 posted on 10/26/2009 1:04:17 PM PDT by Tenacious 1 (Government For the People - an obviously concealed oxymoron)
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To: TheDon; cogitator

Your claim assumes the current configuration of the continents, with the Panama isthmus closed off, among other things.

But you do make a good point that is described in the article that cherry-picking the data isn’t the right approach.

In a blind test, of course statisticians are going to say it’s not a cooling trend. The only way to overcome the statistics and emphasize cooling is to have a preconceived notion about the data and specifically select it.


11 posted on 10/26/2009 1:04:18 PM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: NormsRevenge

Furnish this data to the public as well as information about where it came from. I smell cherry picking.


12 posted on 10/26/2009 1:05:44 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (ACORN: Absolute Criminal Organization of Reprobate Nuisances)
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To: NormsRevenge
In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.

AP controlled the data. That's far from blind or unbiased.

13 posted on 10/26/2009 1:07:54 PM PDT by RJL
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To: mmichaels1970

Could it be the “warming” and “cooling” have canceled each other out?


14 posted on 10/26/2009 1:08:15 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (ACORN: Absolute Criminal Organization of Reprobate Nuisances)
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To: NormsRevenge
In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends,

So the AP selected the data to be given to them? Presumably all temperature data from the beginning of the world . . . just to make it fair?

15 posted on 10/26/2009 1:08:28 PM PDT by maryz
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To: TheDon

oct 20 piece. from down under
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,20797,26234743-952,00.html?from=public_rss

just posted a thread

‘Proof’ humans cause global warming

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2371337/posts


16 posted on 10/26/2009 1:10:18 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard)
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To: NormsRevenge
In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.

A group of independent statisticians also found that there was no true temperature increases over time, also. They do not want to talk about that aspect of their findings.

17 posted on 10/26/2009 1:11:13 PM PDT by olezip
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To: NormsRevenge

It is o.k. to use 1998 to show the climate is getting hotter but you are not allowed to use the year 1998 to show that the climate is cooling.


18 posted on 10/26/2009 1:11:18 PM PDT by 12chachacha
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To: RJL

Might this be coming from standard national weather service reports? Usually these readings come from airports. As these swaths of dark pavement grow over time, so do the associated heat islands.


19 posted on 10/26/2009 1:12:20 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (ACORN: Absolute Criminal Organization of Reprobate Nuisances)
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To: HiTech RedNeck
Could it be the “warming” and “cooling” have canceled each other out?

GLOBAL MILDING! OH NO! All this dithering over heating vs. cooling, and it was GLOBAL MILDING getting ready to kill us this whole time.
20 posted on 10/26/2009 1:13:11 PM PDT by mmichaels1970
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To: NormsRevenge

Hey birdbrains, go outside!


21 posted on 10/26/2009 1:18:55 PM PDT by kempster
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To: NormsRevenge
As a scientist I can unequivocaly sat that ther are 3 types of liars

1) stupid liars
2) damn liars
3) statisticians

We had such a foolish example of such in college where a statistician on be half of my sociology class proved that Fundamentalist Christians where not highly intelligent from bogus survey of college attendees from Ivy league schools. I challenged the result of the professor and made him amend that conclusions to read that Fundamentalist Christians smart enough to avoid Ivy League schools. The class cheered because we weren't an Ivy School.

22 posted on 10/26/2009 1:19:36 PM PDT by Pharmer (Palin in 2012! We are so screwed! Go Phillies!!!!)
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To: NormsRevenge

More ignorant propaganda from AP. The Earth has been cooling since 1998. There was no “super hot 2005”. It is a lie.


23 posted on 10/26/2009 1:20:24 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Note to the GOP: Do not count your votes until they are cast.)
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To: NormsRevenge

2005 wasn’t that one of the times Hansen got caught “cooking the books” using September’s temperatures for October.

Even the head of the UN IPCC has acknowledged the world has been cooling.


24 posted on 10/26/2009 1:21:28 PM PDT by NavVet ("You Lie!")
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To: NormsRevenge

What data was given to these folks? The true data belie the notion of the last decade being the warmest on record. To the contrary it shows lower temps all around. More junk science by those with an agenda


25 posted on 10/26/2009 1:21:28 PM PDT by the long march
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To: NormsRevenge; Defendingliberty; WL-law; Normandy; TenthAmendmentChampion; FrPR; enough_idiocy; ...
 


Beam me to Planet Gore !

26 posted on 10/26/2009 1:25:20 PM PDT by steelyourfaith (Limit all U.S. politicians to two terms: One in office and one in prison! to s)
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To: maryz
Presumably all temperature data from the beginning of the world . . . just to make it fair?

Yes it's true and where any data wasn't available they got the computers to fill in the missing data and then handed it to the statisticians.

There has been so much cherry-picking of the data that it better be made public and subject to testing otherwise it should be ignored. There has been enough fiddling of the data ( Vide: Yamal tree ring data) that no set of experts can be trusted without complete independent verification of the data.

27 posted on 10/26/2009 1:26:27 PM PDT by Timocrat
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To: NormsRevenge
If you get to select the data (as opposed to defining the criteria from which they are to be derived), it's not a "blind" test.

Idiots. Or rather: they think we are.

You know how to get a "hockey stick" graph line showing an "undeniable trend"? Extract over 265 data samples and use the 3 of them that best tend to prove your hypothesis. That is the precise genesis of "Global Warming". Sane people and real scientists call that a "scam".

28 posted on 10/26/2009 1:26:55 PM PDT by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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To: MNJohnnie; xcamel
More ignorant propaganda from AP. The Earth has been cooling since 1998. There was no “super hot 2005”. It is a lie.

They are using the fraudulent NOAA Jim Hansen data only, so of course they found no cooling trend as the numbers (like the super hot 2005) are BS

If they were to use the RSS, UAH or even the Hadley they would have come up with the real answer.

More realistic numbers from the Hadley

Using real numbers, you don't need PHD statisticians to find the cooling trend, because any 6 year old can spot it

29 posted on 10/26/2009 1:28:43 PM PDT by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: Gondring
But you do make a good point that is described in the article that cherry-picking the data isn’t the right approach.

That was quite a funny line coming from the article. AGW is all about cherry picking the data.

When the next ice age comes, billions will die of starvation within the first year.

30 posted on 10/26/2009 1:33:21 PM PDT by TheDon
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To: Need4Truth

There’s no significant evidence whatsoever for global warming caused by human activity. Obama just can’t back off of a position when he’s wrong, and I would bet that his staffers are giving him all kinds of incomplete, incorrect, and biased analysis about global warming theory.


31 posted on 10/26/2009 1:37:05 PM PDT by your local physicist (Gridlock is good...in Washington.)
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To: NormsRevenge
So the dire ice-age predictions of 30 years were wrong?
I'm glad Al Gore has all that “proven science” for us to rely on now! ;-)
32 posted on 10/26/2009 1:40:24 PM PDT by charles1252
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To: NormsRevenge

The White House has a big problem with all the extreme, poorly researched positions that Obama took back during his election campaign to appeal to “progrssives” and the moonbat base of the democrat party. He got way out on a limb on climate change, health care, and withdrawal from Iraq, and now he’s finding it difficult to climb back in off that limb and take less extreme positions. That’s what happens when politicians are just concerned about getting elected and have no interest in finding the truth.


33 posted on 10/26/2009 1:41:21 PM PDT by your local physicist (Gridlock is good...in Washington.)
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To: TheDon
When the next ice age comes, billions will die of starvation within the first year.

Not to mention all the people unable to outrun the advancing ice!

34 posted on 10/26/2009 1:45:10 PM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck
Could it be the “warming” and “cooling” have canceled each other out?

Oh my god! It's global climate...stasis! That'll make movies like 'The Day After Tomorrow' awful dull. Damn! No one is going to make any money off of global stasis.

35 posted on 10/26/2009 1:49:20 PM PDT by OpeEdMunkey (Eat right...exercise...die anyway.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck
Furnish this data to the public as well as information about where it came from. I smell cherry picking.

LOL...the links to the data are right at the bottom of the story and show that it's not cherry-picked!

Oh, yeah, that 1998 is not a statistically anomaly...nope... </sarc>

36 posted on 10/26/2009 1:51:52 PM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: mmichaels1970

Global Milding causes Global Mildew, which is what will kill us all if we don’t act now and embrace Change.


37 posted on 10/26/2009 1:52:23 PM PDT by hellbender
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To: HiTech RedNeck
Could it be the “warming” and “cooling” have canceled each other out?

No, as it's hotter now than it was 10 years ago, despite the supposed "cooling trend." The "cooling trend" is really just a reduction in the warming trend, not actually getting cooler.

38 posted on 10/26/2009 1:53:00 PM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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To: LeonardFMason
WTF!? The AP is MAKING news and then reporting it. How soon before the AP starts killing people and claims there is a serial killer on the loose?

Forget the cooling debate: the AP's hired staticians have just determined there is no global warming either. Do they realize that?

39 posted on 10/26/2009 2:02:19 PM PDT by Reeses
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To: kempster
Hey birdbrains, go outside!

LMAO, best one of the day (so far)!

40 posted on 10/26/2009 2:02:45 PM PDT by jpsb
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To: Gondring

your graph is nearing three years old; with that bias, the Tigers make the playoffs.


41 posted on 10/26/2009 2:05:43 PM PDT by gusopol3
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To: qam1

The 1934 spike is not impressive in your graphs; I wonder what happened to it?


42 posted on 10/26/2009 2:08:05 PM PDT by gusopol3
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To: qam1

The green indicates ‘09 is expected to come in pretty warm; as US has been cool, I wonder where the hot spots have been?


43 posted on 10/26/2009 2:11:43 PM PDT by gusopol3
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To: 12chachacha
It is o.k. to use 1998 to show the climate is getting hotter but you are not allowed to use the year 1998 to show that the climate is cooling

We have a winner. 1998 is the proof the earth is hotter than ever, now how dare you use it to show it was an anamoly. And yes I know 1933 was hotter, and probably the 1300s.

44 posted on 10/26/2009 2:15:22 PM PDT by sharkhawk (Always love your country—but never trust your government--Robert Novak)
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To: NormsRevenge
El Nino, a temporary warming of part of the Pacific Ocean, usually spikes global temperatures, scientists say. ... The flip side of El Nino is La Nina

El Nino and La Nina cannot heat or cool the total global temperature. They only circulate heat and create no new energy of their own. If they cause one thing to get warmer, something else must get cooler. If global warming heat exists, it must be hiding somewhere. If it can't be found then it does not exist.

45 posted on 10/26/2009 2:17:17 PM PDT by Reeses
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To: NormsRevenge
So is this a longer climate trend or just weather's normal ups and downs?

As it is cooling down in the Northern hemisphere, it's warming up down under.

Let's legislate away the change of seasons and keep the world at THE optimal temperature.

46 posted on 10/26/2009 2:19:41 PM PDT by a fool in paradise (I refuse to "reduce my carbon footprint" all the while Lenin remains in an airconditioned shrine)
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To: hellbender

HELP! Our oceans are dangerously close to draining off the edge of the world.

Makes as much sense as putting a panicked caption on a photo of a polar bear and proclaiming the damned iceberg melted right out from under him.


47 posted on 10/26/2009 2:21:54 PM PDT by a fool in paradise (I refuse to "reduce my carbon footprint" all the while Lenin remains in an airconditioned shrine)
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To: qam1
Using real numbers, you don't need PHD statisticians to find the cooling trend, because any 6 year old can spot it

And looking at the chart, why was the x-axis selected to be +/- 0.9 degrees? If it had been +/- say 5 degrees, our trend would appear to be almost a flat line and nothing that would look like a trend.

And beyond that, the data purports to be "global average temperature. I'm still trying to find out where they stick a probe to get any global measurement. We know of course that they use a very few actual measurements, most from the US, and most of them 'cooked' by Jim Hansen's magical mystery algorythims before they get plugged into the database.

Truth is, no one has a clue if the earth has has warmed or cooled over the last 150 years. All they can speak with any authority for are a handful of spots on the globe where some semblance of consistent records have been kept over that time.

48 posted on 10/26/2009 2:26:24 PM PDT by Ditto (Directions for Clean Government: If they are in, vote them out. Rinse and repeat.)
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To: Gondring

Why could I not bring up any “climate.uah.edu”? That is the only set whose method (satellite) looks like it might have a chance of not showing bias due to manmade heat islands (that is worse than cherry picking — that is sitting under a cherry tree and having the cherries fall on you), and even there I would have to check on the specific geographic sites.


49 posted on 10/26/2009 2:26:32 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (ACORN: Absolute Criminal Organization of Reprobate Nuisances)
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To: HiTech RedNeck
Why could I not bring up any “climate.uah.edu”?

I don't know...it came up fine for me. Do you see the graph I posted from there via an IMG link?

Can you get the data from here?

50 posted on 10/26/2009 2:31:35 PM PDT by Gondring (Paul Revere would have been flamed as a naysayer troll and told to go back to Boston.)
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