Yes, Virginia, There Is A Bull Market (hang on for 1,000 on the S&P 500)

Forbes ^ | 5/21/2009 | Martin T. Sosnoff

[SeekAndFind]

Call me ratsy: a survivor with resilience, adaptability and durability. Like Sky Masterson and Nathan Detroit from Guys and Dolls, I crave action. The Big Board is my basement hangout, and I'm ready to bet on anything--well almost anything.

Every day is an adventure. I can't wait for the animals to pop out of their cages at 9:30 a.m. Who knows what 10 o'clock macro statistic roils the market? Last week it was flattish retail sales and sticky unemployment stats, but I'm not too concerned.

There's loneliness on the sales floor at big boxes like Lowe's ( LOW - news - people ), even Target ( TGT - news - people ), certainly Neiman Marcus. Big Three carmakers have pad-locked factories, and production lines at Caterpillar ( CAT - news - people ) and Deere & Co. ( DE - news - people ) have shut down. But I'm not despondent. Women are stretching out their nails and blow-dry appointments, and the hum of treadmills at my sports club is subdued. Don't worry.

There's resiliency in the walking wounded. In my business, money management, properties like Janus ( JNS - news - people ), Fortress Investment Group ( FIG - news - people ) and the Blackstone Group ( BX - news - people ) bounced off their lows by 200% or more. Life Insurers like MetLife ( MET - news - people ), even Hartford Financial ( HIG - news - people ), had comparable spikes. The same goes for banks like Citigroup ( C - news - people ) and Bank of America ( BAC - news - people ). Since Lehman, nobody who hit the canvass was counted out.

[Signalman]

Yeah, it certainly is “bull”.

[Rational Thought]

I’m more thinking before we see 1000 on the S&P, we’re likely to see 1000 points down on the Dow, possibly in one day.

[Frantzie]

I dropped Forbes because one of their guest columnists is a close close advisor to Hussein and his mutual funds lost 50% last year. Monthly columns on losing money means Forbes quality control is non-existent.

I do not need to give my money to Forbes anymore after being a subscriber for over 17 years.

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, bullish, bulls**t.

Yeah, sure, buy into a market where the vast majority of stocks have already doubled or tripled off the admittedly panic bottom Mar 09. Goldman Sach has nothing but delicious bargains to sell to you. $70 S&P earnings, eh? Try $45.

Ominous developments in the bond market make this type of carefree bullishness very hazardous. It is the type of CNBC sound bite analysis where the talking head has 5 seconds to give you their maket take, and can flip around their position tomorrow with not the slightest consequence.

Incidentally, Gary Kaltbaum who I respect a lot, who is on the Saturday morning Fox business network screamfests, has a neat radio show. On that show, he has time to speak slowly and express himself in coherent thoughts that make a lot of sense. I highly reco his show (you can fast fwd thru the commercials)

http://www.businesstalkradio.net/weekday_host/Archives/gk.shtml

[Neidermeyer]

Forbes used to be useful for forecasting trends 2-3 quarters ahead of price movements... with Obama all you need to know is to study Mussolini and 1927-38 Germany.

[Misterioso]

Forbes no longer has a legitimate product. The market is their specialty and the market has disappeared.

[wafflehouse]

anything in stocks lost 50% last year.. should all the mutual fund managers be canned?

[Frantzie]

S&P lost 38%. Proper asset allocation probably lost 25%. EIA annuities lost nothing. Other non-market investmensts made money. Gold made money. A bond firm that has not lost anything is 20+ years was up 8%.