The U.N. reaction.
Posted on 02/02/2009 9:48:08 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea appears to be preparing to test-launch its longest range ballistic missile, media reports said on Tuesday, just days after Pyongyang warned that the Korean peninsula was on the brink of war.
Analysts say the possibility that North Korea would start an all-out war with the South is low because Pyongyang knows its underfunded military is no match for the U.S.-backed modern military of its Southern neighbor. (snip)
The North has threatened military action over a disputed sea border off the west coast and it previously triggered clashes in 1999 and 2002 that killed or wounded dozens of sailors on both sides. The 1999 battle was orchestrated by the North's military with its leader Kim Jong-il's close involvement and caught the South by surprise, according to intelligence sources.
The North may be hesitant to spark another battle after its navy was badly outgunned by a superior South Korean force in the last firefight in 2002. Since then, the North's Soviet-era navy has become more obsolete while the South's has increased its firepower and technology.
What has changed is the North's deployment of more short-range missiles. The North could raise tension by firing missiles into waters claimed by the South or at one of its ships.
(Excerpt) Read more at uk.reuters.com ...
More at the link.
I think they have a script ready to play out. How far they will push at what time is controlled by them, based on feed back from outside.
Chia Head could be intent on winning the war of nerve(or resolve.)
The danger is that KJI may look at his weakling sons, and his aging Generals, and (having already sensed his own mortality) decide to gamble all on one last shot at “unifying” the peninsula. If he loses, he can retire to China. If he wins, he outperforms his old man (trying to please Kim Il Sung was his life’s work when the old boy was still around), and he goes out in a blaze of “grory”. The conventional wisdom is that all the recent saber-rattling is a warning to the South not to attempt to exploit any perceived weakness due to KJI’s stroke.
DPRK has units like bridging and sappers foreword. They have DPRK Divisions sitting in bunkers, ready to move forward at max attach speed, 45 seconds after is pushed in Pyongyang.
Bad Boys.
ROK idea was to have small tripwire force US/ROK ready to call in more troops, especially US.
Now, they think Obama would NOT come to fight Kim Il Jong.
They are all so screwed.....
I have heard that. But, I am skeptical.
Your sources are smoking good dope. The Norks can do a boatload of damage but in a protracted war will get their heads handed to them.
Ha ha, Spent 13 months in Korea, The north talks alot of crap avery few years; never happen though.
The north korean strategy is built upon the threat of a single massive missile barage that would do incredible damage to South Koreas major northern cities.
Basically a ton of missiles aimed at south korea, but once that salvo is done, they got nothing left but to pray that China comes to their rescue before the south koreans unleash the dogs of war.
Don’t get me wrong. There would still be a incredible number of South Korean civilians killed and destruction to its major cities from that single missile barage. But after the Norths one and done, from a protracted ground and air war perspective, it would be over faster than gulf war 2. A large hole would be punched in the DMZ and the north would be overtaken quickly. The only problem is if China decides to annex north korea once south korea begins to retaliate. Like Putin has done with Northern Georgia. I wouldn’t put it past the Chicoms to do this.
Which is exactly why it would be over in < 4 days. US forces in Korea would be overwhelmed in first 6 hours. However, they have always served as a tripwire that would bring response from USPACFLT forces in Japan and at sea.
In four days, DPRK can land abn troops everywhere, live on the food, water and ammo they carry and just fight.
But under Obama, nothing would happen, especially nothing nuc.
Obama's WH announcement:
" We have finally been able to bring the Korean War to an end. We all had to make sacrifices, but where just a shaky truce had existed for 56 years, brother staring down brother over the barrels of loaded guns, there is now, primarily due to incredible efforts of Secretary of State Clinton, peace on that war-torn peninsula.
Thanks be to God and President Obama"
Missiles are only the half of it. Seoul is in range of something like 250 NK artillery tubes, most of which can fire chemical shells, and the density of NK artillery along the rest of the DMZ is not that much thinner.
While I’m sure the North Koreans would be pleased to see defeatist attitudes like yours, it’s irrelevant. They’re simply not capable of prosecuting a war against South Korea.
According to recent defectors, North Korea no longer believes it can win a war with South Korea. South Korea is too far advanced and NK is living in the stone ages in a military sense.
Dream on. Norks don't have the combined arms tech or doctrine to overrun the peninsula. Sure Seoul gets crushed, then you see South Koreans coming north in force with blood in their eyes.
They surely understand that the One is their only chance, backed as he is by Pelosi.
3rd Marines are 5 hours away in Okinawa.
NK would have no operational air power or air bases or navy in 12 hours. They can try to infiltrate with no armor and would be mopped up in 5-6 days.
I have trained with ROK, they are the real deal. Put them on the defensive defending their homes.....NK would be entirely degraded militarily.
Don't look to China to help them, won't happen.
DPRK has an active military of 1.435 million, of which 665,000 are trigger-pullers. They are much better equipped and trained to engage on Shock War than we are. For example, no body armor, no mess sections, no medics. Each man charges forward, carrying his own food on his belt, until he wins or dies in the service of the Great Leader, Dear Leader, or whichever Leader is now in power.
SK forces are good, but would be quickly overwhelmed before Reservists could ever be mobilized.
US forces, which number less than 30,000, of which less than 4500 are trigger-pullers, are simply a tripwire force. THe DPRK atacking SK during previous administrations would have justified/required a massive US air response. They were there for the same reason we deployed a light airborne brigade to Saudi at the very start of Desert Shield. An attack on the Kingdom would have justified/required massive US air response on Iraq directly, with no need to limit ourselves to Kuwait, get UN "permission", etc.
Obama has clearly telegraphed since his election that he has neither the will nor the desire to engage US forces to combat any foreign power, let along left-wing communist ideology. Even before the election, BIden warned that the Obama administration, in it's first six months, would do something the American public would disagree with. It might well be their CHOSING TO LOSE Korea II.
I have neither defeatist attitude or desire to see the above happen, but I can count trigger-pullers, read an OB and I listen to Obama. That's what's wonderful about the Obama. He told America that he was going to screw us on so many fronts. Problem is, most Americans didn't get past the image to listen to the content.
Jingoism is great.... sometimes, but reality is a bitch
The U.N. reaction.
The rest of us will soldier on.
I agree that the DPRK cannot win a war against the ROK. The DPRK's deterrent is the artillery pointed at Seoul and possibly some short ranged missile launched low yield nuclear weapons.
Go to Google Maps and you can look at all sorts of satellite imagery of the DPRK. Typing in "Pyongyang" brings you to Kim Il Sung square with the USS Pueblo anchored in the river running nearby. DPRK airfields air lined with antique aircraft (lots of MiG 17, 19 and 21). One Navy base near Mayang shows a lot of their navy just rusting in dry dock. You can see these destroyers and submarines that have turned brown from being left there so long. They still have a few Romeo class diesel subs operating.
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