If you don't know what Mackinac Island, it's probably the whitest, richest, most yuppie place that actually allows access to riff-raff...
Posted on 09/23/2008 5:29:06 PM PDT by notes2005
Poll: McCain leads Obama By 3% in Michigan McCain’s Strong Support Among Independents and Male voters gives him a slight 46% - 43% lead in a Toss-Up State LANSING – A poll released today by Inside Michigan Politics shows that Republican Presidential Candidate John McCain has a slim three (3) point lead over Barack Obama in Michigan’s latest poll. The poll shows that both candidates have strong support with their base voters, but McCain’s support among Independent voters 45%- 37% (+8%) puts him on top in this toss-up state “John McCain has a track record with Michigan Independent voters,” said Bill Ballenger, Editor of Inside Michigan Politics. “The current polling shows that they still like him and they like and support Sarah Palin as his running mate.” The poll showed that Obama continues to show strong support among women (+2%), young voters (+16%), African Americans (+89%), voters living in the Detroit Metro area (+9%) along with his traditional Democratic base. John McCain is showing strength among blue–collar voters (+10%), men (+9%), white males (+29%), conservatives (+62%) and voters living in West Michigan (+12%) and the Flint/Saginaw/Bay City Area (+8%).
(Excerpt) Read more at mrgmi.com ...
My bet is that after the 29th, he swings through VA, NC, and FL. He may opt to fly from FL to PA and OH on the last day of campaigning, likely ending his campaign in IL.
That’s my guess. That map certainly helps.
I would agree, I just remember that there was a magazine or some publication that proclaimed that out of all of the cities, Detroit is the most Liberal. It was a while ago(one of the big links on here for a day or so some months back) and such a blur that I cannot even remember the source. I do agree that San Fran and Berkeley, cultural wise, are more Liberal. It is possibly because of the different Liberal political machines there, including the strong force of the Labor Unions.
I do feel that the problem with people like Joe Biden and his recent “coal” gaffe is that the Democrats have to decide which base they are nailed to: The 1800s Labor Union, Blue Collar Base, or the 1960s Ethnic Radicalism/Left-over Social Activistic/Environmental base. The “clean coal” statement reminds me of Barack’s bitter statement. So yes, I do believe that if they decide to forsake their Union base with more elitist comments, there might be a stronger showing in places like Michigan and McCain will win there. Sarah Palin will make sure of that.
I usually try not to double-post but I will in this case as it is responsive.
Usually the part of the State not affiliated with the glamour of the big cities(Eastern/most of Northern California comes to mind) like Western Maryland and Northern Florida are not attracted to the trend that the State wants to chart. Usually it is baffling, also, that the worst policies usually seem to be enacted in Democrat friendly big cities(the ones that seem to have the most say in making Michigan, CA, and MD blue), the same kinds of policies that Democrats complain about yet want to elect more incompetent people almost like there is a reflexive Peter Principle there. Unfortunately, in Detroit, Black July(I think that was the name for the Race Riots in the late 60s there) left a city smoldering in its wake and supposedly it isn’t even restored. 40+ years and it hasn’t been restored completely.
Anyways, aside from that rant:
I actually think that there is a strong chance that people in Michigan are not altogether buying the blame game pulled by Granholm. Michigan is in the gutter left by her policies and must find a way home. The young ones, the ones cited by a poll as the ones most likely to vote for McCain, will have to live with it, the old ones could just retire down to Florida or don’t care as long as they pay the Union dues. No offense to the more elderly residents of Michigan. Especially since this is intended for those who blindly vote for Democrats.
Traverse City leans democrat, and Leelanau slightly republican, but the Flint surburbs are a lot more democrat leaning than both of those areas. I did not see ONE sign there in the Flint burbs, and I was not in Grand Blanc either.
The main areas I'm interested in watching on election day are Downriver Wayne County and the union heavy democrat areas in Genessee, Saginaw, and Bay Counties. Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City. John Kerry won all four of those counties by a good margin, but not the same as Gore or Clinton. Obama might lose some of those areas, and there are not enough yuppies to bail him out in this state.
This looks like a pretty low number.
“Detroit won the most liberal award because of its voting patterns. Voting was the sole criteria. It’s liberalism is purely on economics and race.”
I figured so. The heavy black population and the Labor Union forces make it very Liberal.
“The main areas I’m interested in watching on election day are Downriver Wayne County and the union heavy democrat areas in Genessee, Saginaw, and Bay Counties. Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City.”
Heh, Michael Moore’s Flint, a Lefty Frizzell song, and the source for the name of the Bay City Rollers. But it would be interesting to see how they will react.
“John Kerry won all four of those counties by a good margin, but not the same as Gore or Clinton. Obama might lose some of those areas, and there are not enough yuppies to bail him out in this state.”
That would be good. As I have said the battle is for the soul of the Democrat Party, are you going to fight for Detroit Stockyard worker values or San Francisco bathhouse values? It seems like Obama wants to follow the latter even if he tries his best to pander to the former. In the end, the force that helped the Democrat Party stay alive in the north especially after the Civil War will not save Obama from losing. At least I hope so. In short, even if Kerry was richer than Obama he seemed more blue collar as he went to war and than became a lawyer. Obama and his community activism might recoil some Unionists who think of the Black Panthers and how they couldn’t relate to the riots in the 60s. My grandfather, who was a very loyal Democrat, became a Republican after that stuff happened and because of it.
I don't see Flint and Saginaw itself going Republican because of the black populations there, but I would not be shocked to see the Republicans break even or win in the democrat suburbs. Davison, Flushing, Clio, and maybe even Burton, Carrolton, or Bay City.
I know about Michael Moore’s myth, I actually read and loved the book Do As I Say(Not As I Do). I just forgot the name where Moore actually came from.
I would not be too surprised either. Yet it would shock me if McCain won the State. I personally hope that Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin will fall to the GOP column this year. I doubt it but it would probably catch Obama off-guard. Than he could never run again until he is 60 or something, if ever.
I’ve got McCain winning Michigan in all my maps, Obama is a weaker candidate than Kerry, you’ve got your share of “bitter clingers”. Detroit mayor in jail, bad economy, RUN by democrats, oh, and...SARAH PALIN bringing the silent conservatives to the polls.
No shocker, everything lines up for McCain here.
It's one of those surprising facts. The one Dem was elected with Dick Lamm in the 70's. Rogers and Buckley were Republicans elected in the 90's, but Buckley died young, in office, of heart problems or something, and Rogers had a falling-out with Bl.Owens and then lost a congressional primary.
Denver mayor Wellington Webb was one of the few black majors of major white-majority cities.
So they have a strong post-racial history.
Michigan and Pennsylvania .... yeesh. Too much bad blood from the John Streets and Kwame Kilpatricks of the world.
But but but our friends at the washington post say barack mcgovern is up 47 points nationally??? Whom to believe? McCain pulls slightly but clearly ahead in Michigan a very tough nut, but this means nothing I guess. Yeah right.
If you would like to be added or dropped from the Michigan ping list, please freepmail me.
Per the "news at noon" yesterday, Rasmussen had 0bama's lead widening. Just what I heard, folks
Thanks grellis.
I bet it’s not what Michelle Obama said.
The battleground is the rust belt, PA, WI, MI and MN, at least how it stands at the moment.
Fauxbama cannot win if he loses ANY of these states, and while the democratic machine may be able to keep a few of them blue, he’ll lose at least 2 of these states in my oppinion.
Yes, yes, I know it’s early.
But all the same I would LOVE to be in the room when BHO’s campaign manager ‘Fluffer’ gets this news...
Isn’t Michigan in the toilet economically? I think the State House is dem controlled and the Gov. is dem. In any case, the blue collar types in Michigan may be realizing that the dems will never deliver.
Also, on the horizon: Despite Fed. bailout money, Detroit automakers will not survive unless they move to the South. The Big Three must lower labor costs if they are to successfully compete. Can’t blame Michigan’s economic plight on pubbies and/or Bush. Enough voters may be thinking anything is worth trying—including voting McCain/Palin—then go with the status quo this election year.
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