How to win Pennsylvania

Pittsburgh Tribune Review ^ | Salena Zito

[Salena Zito]

The intelligent question thrown out among strategists for both campaigns is, can John McCain really win Pennsylvania?

Really win it, not pretend to go for it, as Republicans did in 2004, all the while closing the deal in Ohio when no one was looking.

The last Republican presidential candidate to win Pennsylvania was George H.W. Bush, in 1988 -- a win preceded by two Reagans but followed by two Clintons, a Gore and a Kerry. The Kerry win was narrower than the others, however.

[HamiltonJay]

In one word... YES.

Now, from what I see on the ground, not only can John McCain win PA, he’s going to. Fauxbama is not connecting with the working class blue dogs, and that’s who you need to win in PA.

Fauxbama isn’t connecting, and hasn’t here. Democratic governor is in the bag for Hillary, so the state machine will NOT do anything more than token efforts to help Fauxbama. State is in the middle of a democratic corruption scandal. Fauxbama will not win PA.

[Maelstorm]

Good analysis in that article. McCain can win PA.

[Dilbert San Diego]

I remember in the primary, Obama got big margins in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas. Hillary got 75%+ in most other counties in PA. Many of these Hillary primary Democrats are going to vote for McCain.

McCain has a good chance in Penn., Ohio, Michigan, and Florida. He could take three of these four states, and that might be enough to give him the election.

[squidly]

Perhaps the bigger argument is that if McCain is posting Bush 2004 poll numbers in Pennsylvania in the waning days of this election, it indicates that Ohio, Indiana and Michigan are already lost to Obama.

Prescient, this is. Indiana is a given. Ohio is looking more and more like it, as long as the pressure is kept up. Pick off Michigan or Pennsylvania in addition to that, and this race is over.

[NewMediaFan]

yep it's possible..

Zogby: McCain Opens Up Five Point Lead in Pennsylvania

[goldstategop]

Here's a question: why were Reagan Democrats in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania not sold on Bush?

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

If Obama has PA in his bag, he wouldn’t have needed a Joe Biden. And of all the Joe Bidens, Joe Biden was the worst pick. Obie is skeeeeerrreeedd.

[comebacknewt]

Nice article Salena.

I'm a former Mt. Lebanon resident. Wouldn't surprise me to see McCain do better than expected there as well.

[jerry557]

I certainly wont say the state is going to McCain. I’d say the state is tied with maybe Obama having an edge.

I just dont trust Philly and Pitt. McCain is going to need big turnout in the rest of the state to offset those two cities.

[Clemenza]

Because many Reagan Democrats have died since 1984. Clinton also appealed to blue collar voters in such states.

The only mass blue collar segment that Bush appealed to was southern white protestants.

[CatOwner]

Good question. I'm concerned about spending too much time in PA thinking that it is winnable when the rampant fraud in Philly, with the governor's help, would likely hand the state to Obama. I sure hope the McCain campaign isn't being duped into believing they can win a state that is more likely than not going to go DEM.

[Salena Zito]

Not sure about that, I live in Mt. Lebanon and I am tripping over Obama sings. Although as I posted in my blog today I saw a “I am bitter, own a gun and vote” sign and three Hillary signs on my street alone this morning. Along with the gazillion Obama signs.

[unspun]

Unless something big happens, I think it would take strony, organized PUMA effort with plenty of endorsements by Democrats.

[Clemenza]

The real reason Bush lost PA (as did Dole) was due to registered Republicans (especially Republican women) in Bucks, Montgomery, and Delaware Counties voting for the Dems. Reagan and Bush 41 won such voters, but Bush's evangelical world view turned them off. I'm not saying they were right, just that this was the case.

The "Reagan Democrat" vote can't be exaggerated in PA. Although Reagan did fairly well in NE Philadelphia (winning some precincts in 1984), he didn't really improve upon Ford's totals in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh).

The term Reagan Democrat should be stricken from the language. Reagan is dead, as are many of the Democrats who voted for him.

[JLS]

Odd then that G.W. Bush won a majority of the Catholic vote in 2004?

[Rodney Dangerfield]

If McCain wins PA, I can go to bed early on election night.

[goldstategop]

I think its less Bush's evangelical views than his personality and it just rubs a lot of people the wrong way. Sarah is also an evangelical social conservative but she comes across as personable and modest. A lot of people who don't agree with her views will still vote for her anyway because they feel comfortable with her in a way they didn't feel comfortable with Dole and Bush.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Styria]

What is that democratic corruption scandal?

[se_ohio_young_conservative]

I was thinking about this the other say, PA is politically what Ohio would be if we only had the Northern Half of the state. A Democratic leaner. so close and so far.

Thank God we have Cincinnati and Dayton.