source: FreeRepublic_th_eyelies_incpen
Posted on 08/02/2008 11:48:15 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
As Western and Pakistani intelligence sort through the fallout from the July 28 airstrike in South Waziristan, Pakistan, rumors are swirling that Ayman al Zawahiri, al Qaeda's second in command, was either killed or seriously wounded in the attack.
All of these rumors have been based on Pakistani intelligence sources, which makes the allegations suspect. Without confirmation from the US military or intelligence, the reports from Pakistan should be viewed with deep skepticism.
From the strike to the Zawahiri rumor
Rumors of Zawahiri's death or wounding began four days after what appears to be a US Predator unmanned aerial vehicle strike on a madrassa in the village of Zeralita in the Azam Warsak region of South Waziristan. Six people, including three Arabs, were reported killed in the attack. The madrassa was said to be a safe house and meeting place for senior al Qaeda commanders.
Immediately after the attack, unnamed Pakistani intelligence officials claimed al Qaeda weapons expert Midhat Mursi al Sayyid Umar, who is better known as Abu Khabab al Masri, was killed in the attack. Sheikh Ibrahim, "a mid ranking al Qaeda operative believed to be either Egyptian or Jordanian," was also reported killed in the attack.
Four days later, two reports emerged that stated Zawahiri was either killed or seriously injured in the strike. The first news on Zawahiri's involvement in the strike came from STRATFOR, which repeated the claim from a Pashtu television station that Zawahiri was killed. The Pakistani station broadcast the report of Zawahiri's demise on July 29, yet the report was not repeated in Pakistan's robust, independent media outlets.
The Pakistani station based its report on an unnamed Pakistani official.
(Excerpt) Read more at longwarjournal.org ...
While we hope the reports are true,...Bill says we need to be cautious.
I guess we’ll have to wait for the next Adam Gadahn video to get confirmation. :-0 Oh wait..
source: FreeRepublic_th_eyelies_incpen
I find a credible scenario — where Pakistani intelligence would intentionally lie about several key figures being killed..
This would take the heat off of them to find them, and reduce the hated strikes by the U.S. into their “sacred” Islamic Republic Tribal Areas....
The Pakistan ISI has had dirty hands since its inception - they are the mother, father and back of the Taliban —— they abhor doing them damage..
You clearly have no clue as to how AQ leadership actually operates....nor of UBL himself (understand the first tapes released of UBL after 9-11, were NOT released by AQ, they were recovered during one of OPs...and then released). Understand Zarqawi in Iraq, AQ's leader in Iraq (the man that almost single handily brought the havoc we saw throughout Iraq from 04-06).....Never once released a video showing himself....
UBL (just like Zawahiri and another half-dozen HVTs you likely wouldn't know of) that have been being hunted for the past 6 years.....are alive......but like 3/4 of AQ other original leadership.....each will have justice brought to them.....via a JDAM, Hellfire or up close via a bullet...
When people understand the region in which UBL and Zawahiri sought to ekk out their survival.....one understands that time was on their side in the short run to remain alive...
Thats how I approached this yesterday night, or was it this morning. We need some solid verification yet to come.
Muslims and media.
Liars all.
The public cares ...
You suggesting you are 99% sure he is dead without any notion of all classified intelligence speaks volumes. Volumes to the lack fo depth you have about understanding this topic
Does AQ leadership make recordings, pass along messages via human mules...Sure they do, depending on their role within AQs CoC.....and why do you assume these things aren't happening? We know they are. Do you think it possible that just because a recording is made or hand written message is sent....that it must get to its intended destination? Do you think it possible that we may have intercepted some of these (including video) and haven't released them to the pubic?
Do you think it possible that CinC, SecDef and others throughout SOCOM may have a security clearance above 99.9% of the public (and these people continually attest to the man still being alive). We have guys risking all 24/7 hunting AQs #1 & #2 in the most dangerous and rugged places on this earth......Understand this...knowing that someone is alive....and knowing exactly where they are at a given moment in time are two complete separate realities....And that is reality we have been chasing for 7 years....
The Pak-Stan border stretches roughly 1,500....Which is about the distance from Washington, D.C., to Denver......It includes every type of landscape from deserts to snow-capped mountains...(it is as close to a nightmare as can be in terms of running sustained operations)...Bottom line is where UBL and Zawahiri have eked out their survival is in a sh*t part of the world and an even sh*tter area to operate in or to bring progress to....(and they know it and choose this area because of such).....Understand, amateurs talk tactics.....professionals talk logistics....And the Pak border region is a logistics nigtmare for sustained Ops...(but improving over the past 6 months because of the sweat equity we have put in over the past 6 years)...
As for UBL having serious kidney health issues - Wrong again, those rumors have been debunked back in the late 90s by our own and other countries OGAs...(it is nothing more than a false, often repeated MSM legend).
Lastly, you are completely wrong when it comes to "who cares" if UBL is alive or dead. Here's some reality...
Tactically without question UBL's value has been tremendously reduced - Strategically he is still of very large importance to the radical Muslim street and their causes -
Killing him is still of vital importance for a number of very real reasons -
For starters....Simply for the justice of it being done / accomplished. For those lives lost due to the attack on this great nation on Sept 11th, 2001 - But also for the lives lost of brave warriors who have been hunting him since late 2001 - The risks that have been taken in tracking him down (along with killing over 3/4 of al-Qeada's top leadership) most are hardly aware of - These men deserve to see the job finished.
However more importantly (to a degree) is that most underestimate the value that UBL still manages to hold (within the radical Muslim street throughout the ME...but also importantly within the Afghan/Pak border regions)...and holds his value simply because he has managed to stay alive (along with Zawahiri) - Another "aura" of sorts has managed to build up around him precisely because of this fact. He remains alive.
Killing him would radiate a resounding defeat throughout not only the Afghan/Pak border region....but throughout the radical Muslim street as well. Some like to talk in circles about how "cause" is larger then just one person (and this is certainly true...without question).
But make no mistake killing UBL will be an endgame outcome that will stick in the world's collective mind (including those radical Muslim wannabes)...UBL is dead. The United States tracked him down and killed him. Full-stop, end of discussion (no amount of psycho babble will be able to deny this fact).
Killing UBL will also recapture the 10 second mindset of a majority of Americans. It will not only remind them of the WOT....but it will reshape their mindset that the American military (headed by CINC GWB) is methodically and deliberately tracking these SOB's down!! (just like he has quietly and steadfastly said over these past 7 years).
The American public will see it as a complete victory (one in which the factless spinning MSM can't spin negative no matter how hard they will try). The American people deserve this victory.
Lastly our warriors deserve it (which goes along with point one). So -
1. Justice is owed.
2. Killing UBL is a resounding defeat that the radical Muslim street will not only feel...but won't be able to deny or spin. A sense of the inevitability of defeat will only further drape itself over them.....ontop of their clear and complete strategic defeat in Iraq...
3. His death will bring clarity back to the American publics mindset in this WOT - While at the same time bringing back a level of loyalty and respect to our CinC for quietly and steadfastly showing the resolve he has for the last 7 years. 4. His death = complete victory (in one aspect of the WOT) - A victory that can't be denied.
5. Our warriors deserve it.
DevSix, that’s one of the best FR posts I’ve read in a long time. Thanks.
DevSix, that’s one of the best FR posts I’ve read in a long time. Thanks.
I was just at a neighborhood party and this topic was part of the evening discussion. I will forward Devsix’s comments to my buddies for thier review...very good stuff Devsix. The fact that Bin Laden has lived in squalor for the last 6 years in a very cold mountainess terrain makes me very happy. To know he is dead one day will make me thrilled.
All very compelling comments. How about this; I’ve stood and fought on that border.
Then you clearly know the enormity of the region. The brutal rugged-ness of the region....and how locating one man there can become a mission-impossible almost.....Especially when one understands the Pastun tribe and culture....
But just as with the dozens of other HVTs within given AO....that we eventually have "got"......We'll put a JDAM or guns (preferably, if I had my choice) on UBL and Zawahiri one of these dark nights as well....
Best regards,
Thanks Ernest_at_the_Beach.
Pakistani Taliban deny Zawahri death report
Reuters | Sat Aug 2, 2008 10:47am EDT | Zeeshan Haider
Posted on 08/02/2008 11:56:04 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2055445/posts
US slander against ISI rubbished [PAKISTAN]
The Dawn Newspaper | August 02, 2008 Saturday | The Dawn Newspaper
Posted on 08/02/2008 11:55:33 AM PDT by CarrotAndStick
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2055444/posts
No evidence of al Qaeda No. 2’s illness or death, U.S. say
CNN | Aug 2nd, 2008
Posted on 08/02/2008 8:15:01 AM PDT by Perdogg
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2055366/posts
US slander against ISI rubbished [PAKISTAN]
The Dawn Newspaper | August 2, 2008 Saturday | The Dawn Newspaper
Posted on 08/02/2008 11:55:33 AM PDT by CarrotAndStick
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2055444/posts
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