Posted on 06/28/2008 12:32:37 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
The top ten likely effects as the bear market bites
Patrick Hosking: Business Commentary
There is now no doubt about it. Even the cheeriest of optimists would have to acknowledge that we are in the grip of a pronounced bear market. The FTSE 100 has slumped by more than 500 points in the past month and from the peak of last October is down by 18 per cent. At one point yesterday it dived to 5,470, close to the nadir of the Bear Stearns panic in March, although it managed a half-hearted rally at the end of the day.
One of the most fabulous bull runs of modern times, a golden period stretching from the start of the second Gulf War in March 2003 to the first shudders of the credit crunch in August 2007, is well and truly history. The slide in share markets since then can no longer be characterised as a blip.
Until share dealers start to believe the economy can pick up again, sentiment is likely to remain sour. And with policymakers seriously boxed in by a nasty bout of inflation and (in the UK's case) a stretched fiscal position, the short-term prospects are not good. If there is light at the end of the tunnel, it is a distant pinprick.
(Excerpt) Read more at business.timesonline.co.uk ...
7. There will be much talk of the merits of “bottom-fishing” - especially by investment bankers trying to persuade private equity bidders and sovereign wealth funds to snap up cheaper-looking UK assets.
8. There will be sucker rallies. The bounce in share prices in May proved to be just that as investors took too sunny a view that the credit crunch was easing.
sucker-fishing with the talk of "bottom-fishing" and "the worst is over." Happening right at FR.
Ping!
I think we have to realize that tough economic times historically favor the election of Democrats/socialists who promise salvation. And since we have the Messiah running on the Dem side, it’s even more likely./s
The possibility that a shellshocked electorate inflicts this POS upon itself as alleged savior, ignorantly committing an act of partial suicide, scares the hell out of me.
I have most of my money in 100% growth stocks over the course of the next 20 years. Any need to re-evaluate in your opinion?
6 months ago I made a $100 bet with a co-worker that a Democrat would be elected President following an “Its the Economy, Stupid” campaign. My bet is looking good.
11) Goldman Sachs, whose egos believed they were exempt from the subprime and credit mess by bankrolling it while shorting it at the same times takes it up where the sun doesn’t shine as so richly as they deserve.
Just like everyone else on wall street, they got caught chasing the yield curve and eventually got bit by what it was feeding. Welcome to the party you created.
Most who try to pick a bottom end up living in van down by the river.
Let the suckers try to pick the bottom. Wait for a bottom to occur, watch the blood flow, and then start going long once the carnage is over.
Oh, scares the dickens out of me as well. Higher taxes. Destroying our health care sector. Even the recent Heller decision from SCOTUS — look for 3 more Ruth Bader Ginsbergs on the court after Osama Obama is done with us.
And what an empty suit he is. Every lib who plans to vote for Osama Obama should be forced to watch the movie “the Candidate.” “What do we do now?”
The only time to buy is when the prevailing attitude is that you’d have to be crazy to buy. We’re a long way from that point.
I’m already hedging against what I pay at the pump by investing in natural resources in my retirement account. Has paid off nicely and will for decades to come.
I’m not sure I get your point but you would be crazy to buy. House prices keep falling. Houses that were selling for $350,000 a year ago are going for $150,000. I used to think that was the bottom but someone shortselling at $139,00 for the same house.
They have had lookers and seemed optomistic they would get out only having lost $100,000 on the sale.
9. dow 7250.
Is this your wild guess or calculation based on some analysis? The number seems rather specific. Or is there some coded message in this number?
7
2
5
0 dds
My Forex trading buddy says “only monkeys pick bottoms.” XD
“””sucker-fishing with the talk of “bottom-fishing” and “the worst is over.” Happening right at FR.””””
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“sucker-fishing”, lol, we used to fish for suckers on Upper Lake Michigan with a bow and arrow.
A couple of posts above mentioned a DOW 7250, I believe, maybe they said 7500. But that’s about exactly the target I have in mind. 7250-7500 corresponds with DOW lows from Sept 1998, Oct 2002 and March of 2003.
I would not be bottom fishing here unless you plan on waiting 10 years or so to get even again.
Now, since everybody on FR loves GOLD, (sarc), how’s about that nice $65 move in the barbarous relic in the last two days and a 13% increase in gold/silver stocks over the same two days.
Yeah, those boys won't take gold as payment, even if all currencies disappear.:-)
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