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To: Attention Surplus Disorder

I have most of my money in 100% growth stocks over the course of the next 20 years. Any need to re-evaluate in your opinion?


4 posted on 06/28/2008 12:48:01 AM PDT by eyedigress
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To: eyedigress

I don’t think you’ll find many allocation models suggesting that strategy is OK even if your your 20’s..


22 posted on 06/28/2008 5:34:20 AM PDT by EVO X
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To: eyedigress

Well, I’m not a financial advisor. But, I would say the following. Generically, I’d say yours is probably a fairly undiversified port. What are “growth” stocks? Many of what were growth stocks in the 90’s do not appear today to be growth stocks. Why is that? Because so many companies jumped on “growth” in the 90’s that “growth” became commoditized. For example, computer memory; which as far as I can see is more often than not engaged in competitive price reductions in order to gain market share. I think that’s an exquisitely important dynamic. When too many manufacturers get into so-called growth, the next or next-next phase is that they see the market was overestimated, is now overpopulated, and in order to survive, those players have to lower their pants further and further just to stay alive. Gazelle turns into goat.

Another aspect is that growth stocks typically sell at highish PEs as a reflection of their projected growth. IOW, they are expensive. You are buying air. Well, when you buy an investment that’s expensive, there’s an increased chance it will become less expensive. Expensive, you understand, is not absolute price. Expensive is buying growth that may not pan out according to the way the Wall Street hucksters pump it.

Yet another aspect is that growth stocks (and it should be clear by now that I don’t exactly know what you mean by “growth” stocks) rarely pay dividends. Dividend income and fixed income investments are VERY important parts of a balanced port, and they have been pooh-poohed for many years as stodgy things for old people and you should jump on growth. Many financial advisors think the younger you are, meaning, the more years you have to have your investments grow, the more wild bets you should make. There is SOME truth to that, but those many years of div or coupon accumulation, at compound interest, can produce staggering gains over long periods of time. No need to do only one or the other. The idea is to judiciously participate in both.

We’re in a clearly DRAMATICALLY shifting investing environment, and I say that not because of what may happen to the DJIA Monday, next week, or for the rest of the year. In our networked, DNA’ed, GPS’ed, bar-coded and RFID’ed world, we are coming to the realization that horrible, ugly, crappy businesses like coal and fertilizer and steel and PARTS of the oil biz and mining and farming are not only things we cannot get along without, they also cannot be dreamed up by two dudes in their dorm room. The producers require years of permitting, remediation, and typically infrastructure buildout to bring their goods to market. There is also consideration as to the relative quality of the goods. The best example to me are coal stocks, which I am gaga over. Coal?? Yes, coal! Steam coal from the Appalachian mines happens to have a very high BTU content, typically > 12,500 BTU. It sells for between $110 and $150 a ton. Coal from PRB Powder River Basin has much lower BTU content, about 25% less, 8500-9K BTU. And it sells for $10-$14 a ton!! Huh? PRB coal is far more distant from shipping terminals than App. coal, which has existing rail lines to Harper’s Ferry, VA, a huge port.

And finally, what means “growth”? Is it...growth within an existing market, IOW, an increasing market share? What about if that market is declining? I mean, the #1 buggy-whip manufacturer isn’t such great shakes. Is it being first or second to market in a yet-to-be-established market? Is it...margin expansion by production impovement? Or is it acquisiton of other producers and growth by virtue of economy of scale? Of some combo of the above?

Now, as to growth stocks TODAY. What train(s) are your growth stocks hitched to? China? Brazil? The US? What sector? You have to really really dig down and answer that question and be sure about the nature and long term sustainability of that train.


28 posted on 06/28/2008 11:09:24 AM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (Congrasites = Congressional parasites.)
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