6 months ago I made a $100 bet with a co-worker that a Democrat would be elected President following an “Its the Economy, Stupid” campaign. My bet is looking good.
I think McCain's chances are improving, but only on condition that he hang oil and gasoline prices around the democrats' necks. Energy prices are the primary drag on the economy right now. They are also the primary thing spooking consumer sentiment and souring the electorate.
For the last 30 years, one Party has been generally in favor of increasing production of all forms of domestic energy. The other Party has been generally opposed. If McCain can connect the dots, over the opposition of a liberal media that will do everything in its power to muddy the issue, he'll win.