Posted on 03/12/2008 1:24:57 PM PDT by The_Republican
Based on RCP data if you crunch Dem Delegate Count, its clear they have more delegates than are needed by either one of them.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
Total Pledge Delegates Available - 2687
Total Super Delegates Available - 796
Total Delegates Available - 3483
So Far Pledge Delegate Counts are:
Obama - 1403
Hillary - 1240
Going Forward Assuming MI and FL WILL be Do-Overs this is what they can and IMO will show up at the Convention:
PA - 158 Delegates - 54% Win for Hillary (85-H - 73-O)
Guam - 4 Delegates - 51% Win for Obama (2-H - 2-O)
North Carolina - 115 Delegates - 52% Win for Obama ( 55-H - 60-O)
Indiana - 72 Delegates - 53% Win for Hillary (38-H - 34-O)
West Virginia - 28 Delegates - 54% Win for Hillary (15-H - 13-O)
Oregon - 52 Delegates - 53% Win for Obama (24-H - 28-O)
Kentucky - 51 Delegates - 54% Win for Hillary (28-H - 23-O)
Puerto Rico - 55 Delegates - 56% Win for Hillary (31-H - 24-O)
Montana - 16 Delegates - 54% Win for Obama (7-H - 9-O)
South Dakota - 15 Delegates - 54% Win for Obama (7-H - 9-O)
Florida - 185 Delegates - 54% Win for Hillary (100-H - 85-O)
Michigan - 128 Delegates - 54% Win for Hillary (68-H - 60-O)
That would bring Total Pledge Delegate Counts for each to (Going Forward):
Obama - 419
Hillary - 460 (Netting 41)
Overall Totals would become:
Obama - 1822
Hillary - 1700
Pledge Delgates Needed for Each for 2025 count:
Obama - 203
Hillary - 325
As you can see, they would both easily exceed the 2025 number. Then I guess it would be decided with Maximum count.
I believe Hillary WILL take the POPULAR VOTE LEAD. Also the Strings of Late Victories and Victories in Big Blue States, even if Obama's Super Delegates Hold (RCP has Obama with 211 and Hillary with 247), All Hillary needs is 122 more Super Delegates among remaining 338.
CONCLUSION - HILLARY SHOULD WIN
I think it would be easy for Arkansas Mafia to win the Super Delegate battle. All she needs is the score of 215-123 among the undecided SDs and she WOULD have the BIG STATES and POPULAR VOTE WINS behind her.
Its possible that she nets even more Delegates then my ASSUMPTIONS above. But I don't think difference would be anything more than +- 10-15 votes from my counts.
Its also possible that Obama dishes out a knockout blow. However he is RUNNING OUT OF CHANCES to do that. He would have 3 more chances that could win him the Nomination.
He has to Either win PA and then it would be quick and painless. Or give her a blow in Indiana, which would be considered HER Territory. Or somehow pull out Michigan. (Talking about Popular vote count here).
She could knock him out if she somehow carries North Carolina.
NOTE: Assumptions I made above are based on how they have already performed in different regions. How voters lean in those states. Like Oregon is Vermont of the West. North Carolina has Significant African American Population and Obama has shown strenght in Western Mountain States.
Hillary on the other hand is playing RACE CARD and she has edge in States where Ed Rendell Voters exist.
Leni
Forget the primaries, and caucuses that are left. It’ll all come down to what they do about Florida and Michigan.................
Each has a different count of their own, hence discrepancies.
There are differences. I checked Obama’s own website - He has exact 10 more delegates, BOTH for himself and Hillary. I think that makes this data from RCP slightly more believeable.
Hillary winning the Pop Vote would be a massive boost to her case.
If he is honest (Chaos and not choosing Hillary was the intention) he should.
No. It’s better for Hildabeast to be the RAT nominee because it will drive the moonbats nuts and send them to Nader. The black vote will riot and then stay home in Nov.
Last time GOP managed to beat either of the Klinton was for Attorney General office in Arkansas.
Klintons and Media know what buttons to push to bring Black back to the Reservation.
If she is the Nominee, she WILL be the President.
GOP has NO chance of Flipping ANY of the Gor/Kerry States against her. She would on the other hand FLIP Arakansas, Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio. She would also give McCain run for his money in Coloradao, Nevada, Tenessee, and Virginia.
Young Voters (Moonbats?) not showing in record numbers would make this election, just like any other election. There loss is not end of the world for Hillary.
Again, Blacks, even now they can’t wait to kiss Massa Klinton’s foot. They will apologize for this primary season.
The vote to ban affirmative action passed by a wide margin.
You are correct. It does have about 15% Black Population. Obama also had Union Backing.
However, I am assuming by that time Hildabeast would have STRONG WIND behind her. The “new voters” would be abandoning USS Obama at that point. Could be wrong.
I hate Klintons and want them to lose. I also think our best bet is to beat Obama with everything else we have to overcome in this election cycle.
We’ll just have to disagree. I think Hildabeast is easy to beat in Nov.
In Dearborn, he could campaign as B. Hussein Osama - and win big over there...
The “2025 needed” number is based on NOT seating the Florida and Michigan delegates. If they seat those delegates, the total needed will go up accordingly.
I am so glad Hillary and Obama are a) bloodying themselves up, b) spending more time and LOTS of resources on each other, c) every time they rip the other or respond, they’re giving ammo and sound bites to be used against whichever one is the final candidate.
Divide and conquer. The dems have done this so many times to us - hell they helped us get McCain. They screwed us, we need to screw them back.
ROFL!
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