Obama Won Texas? (Based on delegate count)

NPR ^ | March 8, 2008 | Tom Regan

[kenn5]

Texas Two-Step Leaving Dems Flat-Footed

The Clinton campaign may go to court. The Obama campaign wants to take its delegates and get out of town before sundown. The Texas Two-Step is overheating an already fired up Democratic presidential contest.

The Newsblog mentioned this on Wednesday but there is a very good chance that winning the Texas primary might not mean that Sen. Hillary Clinton gets to take away the most delegates. That because after the primary -- which she won 51-47 percent -- come the caucuses and it looks like Sen. Barack Obama may win those.

Here's where the delegate count gets funky. NPR's Wade Goodwyn and Robert Siegel report that Clinton's primary win means she snapped up 65 delegates to Obama's 61. Not a big difference, but a difference nonetheless. But if the numbers in the caucus vote hold up, then Obama will win 37 more pledged delegates to Clinton's 30. So Obama would have 98 delegates and Clinton 95 and he would leave Texas with three more delegates that Clinton

But wait, there's more. It might not all get sorted out until summer ...

"The end result of the Texas caucuses was that attendees picked delegates. These delegates will then go on to attend a county convention in late March to caucus. Then, the delegates from the county convention must go to the state convention and hold another caucus. The whole Texas process will not be wrapped up until June."

The Clinton camp is none to happy about this development and is threatening to take legal action because it said it won the state. The Obama campaign is trying to retroactively claim victory in a place which many news organizations had already reported that Clinton won.

Somewhere John McCain is smiling.

[kenn5]

I am looking for a better source of this information, but I have yet to find one.

[BunnySlippers]

DU is covering this extensively.

[BunnySlippers]

Lots of articles in Google News:

http://news.google.com/news?client=safari&rls=en&q=texas+delegates&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&um=1&sa=N&tab=wn

[SaveTheChief]

This keeps getting better and better.

[CindyDawg]

I don’t think the Texas Dems are going to take this very well. As a conservative, I don’t like it either. We are not Florida and don’t want outsiders coming in and counting chads in Nov. and telling us how to do stuff.

[USS Alaska]

I am looking for a better source of this information, but I have yet to find one.

Go over to DU, not for better information but just for the pure fun of it.

The crazies are going bonkers, posting all sorts of info regarding the klintoons with crooked money, chinese money, saudi money etc.

The looney left has JUST DISCOVERED THE EARTH IS NOT FLAT, and the klintoons are grifters and thieves.

They are psoting as if this is new stuff. It must really hurt their eyes to look at the truth and say, "Wow man, where has all this been for the last 15 years. We never would have known this if obama, the one whose middle name can't be spoken, didn't reveal the truth and light to us.

obama akbar.

[COUNTrecount]

It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.
Joseph Stalin

[MarkeyD]

I didn’t like it at first, but I now think Limbaugh was right to delay this as long as possible.

[neodad]

My mom is a Democrat with conservative leanings. She went to her precinct caucus here in El Paso. It was 13 Clinton delegates to 7 Obama delegates. She went specifically to vote against Obama.

[gridlock]

DU is covering this extensively.

Ya' think?!? < SNORT>

[kjo]

Don’t trust anything you hear on NPR. Everything they report is based on furthering their agenda.

[McLynnan]

I couldn’t have said it better but on the plus side it gives Hillary and Obama more time for infighting and is potentially very damaging to the Democratic party going into their convention. It doesn’t look like they will have a clear cut winner. It will be interesting to see how the super delegates shake out.

[sanjacjake]

Once the Clintons get the first message out....it is
ALL IN THEIR FAVOR FOR WEEK OR TWO-...if it is wrong,
the damage is done..and old news,etc. sneaky and
logical, for their game...do anything to win..period. JK

[CindyDawg]

My Mom is a Dem too. I think she voted for Huckabee though to shut me up:’) As for as conservative, she’s about as conservative as you can get for a Dem.

[Richard Kimball]

This is classic Democrat in action. They make arcane and silly rules, then try to change them in the middle of the election cycle to benefit a specific candidate. The caucus-primary hybrid is unusual, but no more silly than Iowa (caucus only.) It provides a combination of popular vote, while weighting towards party activism. Hillary didn't build any party machine in Texas, Obama out-organized her, and got people to the caucuses. Hillary got the casual voters, while Obama got the "true believers."

Democrats are challenging every outcome that doesn't suit them in court. Dittos for Florida and Michigan delegates.

[rod1]

Just remember all the primary and causcus structures, division of delegates, etc. have been set up for tyhe RATS by the RAT state and national parties. If they want to complain guess what...they can blame themselves.

[MNJohnnie]

Pass the popcorn please!

[SouthTexas]

Heard this on a local talk radio show Thursday afternoon. Couldn't find any verification then and I I guess that's still the case since you can't either. ;)

They did say they would probably be "finalizing" the count for the next three months. LOL

[deport]

The following is how The Green Papers have broken out the delegate totals so far with only about 41% of the precinct caucuses reporting:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/TX-D.phtml

Contest				Clinton			Obama
	Pop Vote	Qual Vote	Del	Vote	Alloc	Del	Vote	Alloc	Del
SD1	90,660	86,165	4	50,423	2.341	2	35,742	1.659	2
SD2	89,741	88,663	4	44,098	1.989	2	44,565	2.011	2
SD3	95,414	90,591	4	57,029	2.518	3	33,562	1.482	1
SD4	90,596	88,121	4	47,887	2.174	2	40,234	1.826	2
SD5	102,864	99,926	4	48,414	1.938	2	51,512	2.062	2
SD6	56,069	55,564	3	35,828	1.934	2	19,736	1.066	1
SD7	81,085	80,758	3	37,261	1.384	1	43,497	1.616	2
SD8	95,302	94,883	4	42,207	1.779	2	52,676	2.221	2
SD9	73,498	73,132	3	31,393	1.288	1	41,739	1.712	2
SD10	106,340	105,766	5	44,591	2.108	2	61,175	2.892	3
SD11	84,866	83,999	4	44,689	2.128	2	39,310	1.872	2
SD12	90,220	89,681	4	46,302	2.065	2	43,379	1.935	2
SD13	121,458	120,952	7	31,935	1.848	2	89,017	5.152	5
SD14	151,377	150,382	8	54,848	2.918	3	95,534	5.082	5
SD15	80,423	79,990	4	30,118	1.506	2	49,872	2.494	2
SD16	80,849	80,404	4	37,842	1.883	2	42,562	2.117	2
SD17	93,234	92,520	5	42,107	2.276	2	50,413	2.724	3
SD18	102,713	99,578	4	52,428	2.106	2	47,150	1.894	2
SD19	87,515	84,802	4	53,442	2.521	3	31,360	1.479	1
SD20	99,810	98,130	4	68,380	2.787	3	29,750	1.213	1
SD21	120,745	117,622	4	82,096	2.792	3	35,526	1.208	1
SD22	70,494	69,044	3	39,336	1.709	2	29,708	1.291	1
SD23	117,612	116,971	6	31,606	1.621	2	85,365	4.379	4
SD24	64,492	63,208	3	33,629	1.596	2	29,579	1.404	1
SD25	128,392	127,449	6	57,688	2.716	3	69,761	3.284	3
SD26	90,402	89,407	4	55,439	2.480	2	33,968	1.520	2
SD27	88,669	86,871	3	61,782	2.134	2	25,089	0.866	1
SD28	71,036	67,065	3	40,709	1.821	2	26,356	1.179	1
SD29	98,821	97,124	3	68,039	2.102	2	29,085	0.898	1
SD30	75,219	72,913	3	45,513	1.873	2	27,400	1.127	1
SD31	44,506	43,354	2	26,392	1.218	1	16,962	0.782	1
Delegates			126			65			61

Here is how we estimate the statewide delegate count (based on partial and preliminary results of the 4 March 2008 Precinct Conventions from a party source [as of 7 March 2008 at 1:46 AM CST -- 3,380 of 8,224 (41.10%) of the precincts reporting]):

1. A candidate must receive 15% or more of the total popular vote to qualify for delegates. Discard votes cast for those candidates who do not qualify.
2. Allocate Senatorial District delegates from the qualified vote in each district.
3. In each jurisdiction (CD and statewide):
   1. Total qualified vote = total votes cast for the qualifying candidates in the jurisdiction.
   2. Allocation = (delegates for the jurisdiction) × (candidate's popular vote) ÷ (total qualified vote).
   3. Assign each candidate the WHOLE NUMBER of delegates.
   4. If delegates remain, allocate each of the remaining delegates to those candidates with the LARGEST REMAINDERS.

Contest				Obama			Clinton			Uncommitted			Other
	Pop Vote	Qual Vote	Del	Vote	Alloc	Del	Vote	Alloc	Del	Vote	Alloc	Del	Vote	Alloc	Del
PLEO	42,582	42,538	25	23,918	14.057	14	18,620	10.943	11	38			6
At-Large	42,582	42,538	42	23,918	23.615	24	18,620	18.385	18	38			6
Delegates			67			38			29