The Trouble with Russia

American Thinker ^ | March 06, 2008 | Herbert E. Meyer

[neverdem]

Each year a group of KGB Commissars would get together for a weekend of bear hunting.  A helicopter would fly them to a clearing deep in the forest, leave them with their guns and camping gear, then pick them up two days later.

Now the hunting weekend has ended, and the Commissars are waiting in the clearing with their equipment and with the carcasses of three bears. The helicopter swoops in and lands, the pilot steps out and takes one look at the waiting cargo.

"Comrade Commissars," the pilot says.  "I'm sorry, but I cannot take all three bears on board.  The helicopter can carry only two.  Please decide which one you wish to leave behind."

Two Commissars grab the pilot's arms, while a third slaps the pilot hard across his face and says, "Captain, this is precisely what you told us last year.  As you no doubt will remember, that led to an unpleasant afternoon of beatings and threats against your family if you didn't take all three bears on board.  In the end, you did as we ordered. Surely it won't be necessary to repeat all that again?"

The pilot nods glumly, then gets busy loading everything on board and they take off.

Ten minutes later the helicopter crashes.  One of the Commissars is killed, and another has two broken legs.  A third Commissar crawls out from the wreckage and drags himself over to the dazed pilot, who is lying on the ground nearby.  The Commissar slaps the pilot across his face, sits him up and asks, "Captain, where are we?"

The pilot looks around and says, "Same place we crashed last year."

In the Cold War years we learned a great deal about KGB Commissars, and it turns out they all share the same two qualities: They are thugs -- and they are incapable of learning from experience.

Vladimir Putin has the heart and soul of a KGB Commissar -- which, of course, he once was.  He's a thug, and he's learned nothing from his country's history.  So he's driving Russia into the same ditch the communists drove it into back in the twentieth century.  He's creating a one-party dictatorship in which the country's wealth will be owned or controlled by the State.  Like all dictators, he's trying to gin up a foreign enemy -- that would be us -- to justify his domestic policies.  And he's embarking on a course to achieve his communist predecessors' dream of imposing a sort of Pax Sovietica on the world.

The rigged election of Dmitri Medvedev as Russia's president on March 2 was, of course, merely window-dressing to show that Putin is obeying his country's constitution by limiting himself to two consecutive four-year terms.  Putin himself will take the lesser post of prime minister, but there's no doubt he's the man in charge.  The general assumption is that Putin will return to the presidency when Medvedev's term expires, or sooner should the presidency become vacant before then.  (A friendly word of advice for President Medvedev: Get yourself a food-taster, and send a flunky out each morning to start the car.)

Russia's Three Objectives

All this means trouble for us -- at least in the short term.  That's because Russia now has three global objectives, and in the coming years it will move fast to achieve them all:

First, Russia wants to position itself not merely as a leading supplier of energy, but as leader of the world's energy-suppliers.  Given its own vast reserves of oil, natural gas and coal, Russia today is growing rich as a major energy provider in Europe.  But now Russia is reaching out for raw materials beyond its own borders; for example Gazprom, the Kremlin-controlled energy giant, is actively bidding for the rights to develop Nigeria's vast and untapped natural gas reserves.  And diplomatically, Moscow is maneuvering in the Mideast and with Venezuela's Hugo Chavez to effectively transfer the leadership of OPEC to the Kremlin.

Second, Russia wants to get back control of what it calls the "near-abroad" - those countries that once were part of the Soviet Union and now are independent.  This includes Ukraine and Georgia, whose current instabilities are due, in large part, to Moscow's meddling.  It includes the Baltic countries and also Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.  And down the road it may well include countries like Romania and even Poland.  Putin and his Kremlin team probably won't launch a direct military attack.  Why should they, if they can gain control of the "near-abroad" nations by working covertly to ensure that Moscow's friends win elections or, when that fails, by covertly undermining freely elected governments.  Their objective is a de facto restoration of the old Soviet Union, under the Kremlin's leadership.

Third, Russia wants a global veto.  In other words, Russia wants a world in which nothing of consequence will happen -- such as treaties, trade agreements, regional military alliances, or wars -- unless Russia approves.  Russia's quest for a global veto reflects the single most striking difference between it and the United States.  While we struggle to lead, Russia wishes merely to obstruct.  Alas, today there are a lot of countries -- including ones that we Americans like to think of as allies -- whose primary foreign-policy objective is to weaken the US.  They are as frightened by our economic productivity and our technological prowess as by our military strength and, whether or not it makes sense, they want to see the US brought low.  Russia will maneuver to unify and lead this effort.

With episodes such as Medvedev's rigged election, last year's natural-gas cut-offs to Ukraine and Georgia, the ongoing diplomatic rows with Great Britain over extradition and the work of the British cultural missions, its sale of advanced surface-to-air missiles to Iran, its deliberately provocative flyovers by long-range bombers of Western territories and US naval formations -- and the untimely, violent deaths of so many Kremlin critics -- a clear picture of what Russia will be like to deal with in the coming years has already developed: it will be brutal, surly, petulant, and generally a pain in the civilized world's rear-end.

How to Deal with Russia

The question is: What should we do about Russia?  And the answer is: We should treat Russia as though it were a condition to be endured, rather than a problem to be solved.  Dealing with Russia in the coming years will be like dealing with a chronic bad back.  Mostly you ignore it and go about your business despite the occasional flare-up; sometimes the pain becomes so intense you've got to gulp down a couple of pills, or a shot of whiskey, and then lie down until the pain subsides; and over time you learn that there are some activities which -- no matter how tempting -- you really must avoid.

Simply put, we should do whatever we think is in our country's best interests and pay as little attention to Russia as possible.  Of course, Russia will always be there -- rather like a bad back.  This means that everything we try to accomplish -- stabilizing the Mideast, deploying a missile-defense shield, assuring the flow of energy to consumers worldwide and all the rest -- will he harder, take longer, and cost more.  Too bad for us, and for the civilized world, but that's just the way it's going to be in the years that lie ahead.

It sounds odd to say this, but a sense of humor will help enormously.  That's because Putin's Russia, unlike the old Soviet Union, is thin-skinned and simply cannot stand to be ridiculed.  For instance, a few months ago the Russians sent a submarine below the North Pole, dropped a Russian flag to the ocean floor -- and then declared that by doing so they had established sovereignty over the Arctic Ocean and its vast mineral wealth.  Then some genius pointed out that if planting a flag conveys sovereignty -- the US owns the moon.  We haven't heard a word since from the Kremlin about its claims to the Arctic.

Unfortunately, it won't always be possible to determine in advance just which US policies and initiatives are going to cause minor flare-ups, and which are going to cause excruciating pain.  This will be a trial-and-error sort of process in which experience, common sense and good judgment will be not merely helpful, but necessary.  (For instance, let us not be too surprised if our support for an independent Kosovo, over Russia's strenuous objections, turns out to ignite a more serious conflagration than we're expecting; it was Russia's total and inflexible support for Serbia in 1914 that started World War I.)

Our efforts to keep Iran's mullahs from getting their hands on nuclear weapons will likely bring us into serous conflict with Russia, and it will take all the fortitude and skill our next President can muster to keep this conflict diplomatic rather than military.  But in the years to come the real focus of our trouble with Russia will be -- as usual -- western Europe.  And -- as usual -- the Europeans won't be helpful to us.  Today they are as frightened by a cut-off of Russian energy supplies as they used to be by a Soviet missile attack.  As the continent's economic power wanes, and as its demographic problems mount, Europe wishes merely to be affluently comfortable as it continues its descent into history.  Our so-called allies will always take the path of least resistance, and we can safely assume that their fear of Russia, and their lust for money, will exceed their courage to face down Russia or to side with us to keep Western civilization moving forward.

Indeed, this is already happening.  As the dollar slides down against the Euro, American tourism is dropping fast and so are American purchases of European products.  Today the European hospitality and luxury-goods industries are actively re-orienting their marketing campaigns from American tourists and consumers to Russia's emerging, energy-enriched middle class.  (You can see the impact of this re-orientation as you pass through the airports in London, Paris and Rome.  You are fairly engulfed by Russian tourists and shoppers -- in their designer clothes, with their Gucci luggage and their gold Rolex watches, and loaded with purchases from Europe's swishiest shops -- as they curse at you and muscle their way past you to the front of the security line.  And the Russian men are even nastier.)

The Cold War Won't Return

Although our relations with Russia won't be pleasant -- to say the least -- there isn't going to be a second Cold War.  Despite booming energy revenues that are now spreading wealth throughout much of Russian society, the country is dying.  Literally.  Today the average life span of a Russian male is under 58 years of age; that puts Russia in the Haiti-Bangladesh category, and nowhere near the modern-industrial-world level.  Moreover, because the birth rate in Russia is just 1.3 (the replacement level is 2.1) today the number of deaths in Russia vastly exceeds the number of births.  Indeed, today in Russia the number of abortions exceeds the number of births.  The country's population is dropping fast, from about 143 million now to about 110 million in 2050.

Russia covers nearly one-sixth of the earth's land surface.  There simply won't be enough working-age Russians to keep things going and to support the country's huge aging population.  Even now -- and with very little publicity -- just like the countries in western Europe Russia is relying heavily on imported workers to keep the place going.  For example, several million Kazakhs and Uzbeks are now doing the menial but vital jobs in Russia that other Moslems are doing today in, say, France, Italy and Germany. More importantly, in the coming decades there won't be a sufficient number of young Russian males to sustain the kind of army Russia will require to defend its far-flung borders.

Finally, Russia seems once again to have an chosen economic model that just isn't compatible with achieving and sustaining global power.  In effect, Russia wants to become a sort of snowy Saudi Arabia in the sense that it will rely for its wealth on energy exports, rather than on the entrepreneurial talents and technical prowess of its people.  And Russia's approach to industrial modernization cannot possibly deliver the kind of long-term productivity gains that drive economic success in today's fast-moving, technology-driven world. For example, the giant Russian automaker GAZ just purchased an entire factory from Daimler-Chrysler that is already 15 years' obsolete.  Russian productivity inevitably will fall further and further behind US productivity, which means that despite its energy revenues Russia won't be able to sustain the kind of decades-long, high-tech military competition that a second Cold War would require.  And if the US and its allies ever get serious about developing alternate energy sources Russia -- like Saudi Arabia -- will be finished.

While the Putin regime means short-term trouble for us, it also means that another long-term tragedy is looming for the Russian people.  Once again, they are living in a police state.  Even now, the Kremlin is busily re-building the dreaded Gulag and packing it with Russians whose only crime has been to oppose Putin or to speak out publicly against the dictatorship he and his cronies are tightening every day.  And If you're wondering why Russia has squandered the historic opportunity it had to join the civilized world when the Soviet Union collapsed back in 1991, the answer is depressingly simple: Countries are like people; some learn from their mistakes and move on, while others keep making the same mistake over and over again.

Genius in the Genome

The only good thing to emerge from Russia's bleak future will come from the humor, courage, and astounding genius that lie deep within the Russian genome, and that only adversity brings to the surface.  Russia's next generation of dissidents will give the world yet another collection of poems and novels that will become among the twenty-first century's greatest works of literature.  With a bit of luck, we may even get another bunch of those marvelous Russian jokes in which the individual is always defeated by the boundless, pitiless stupidity of the State.

The patriotic young lieutenant joined the KGB to protect the Motherland from its enemies.  But he's having his doubts.  Could all these people he's been arresting, torturing, sending to the Gulag and shooting really be foreign spies?

Unknown to the lieutenant, he's being carefully watched by the KGB Commissar in charge of his unit.  The wise and experienced Commissar understands that his lieutenant is young and idealistic -- just as he once was.  Indeed, the Commissar himself sometimes thinks the regime goes too far.  But he has long since learned not to question his Kremlin masters, and instead to devote his energies to rooting out the State's enemies wherever they may be hiding.  One afternoon the Commissar invites the young lieutenant for a drink after work.

Now the two officers are sitting in a bar, with their tunics unbuttoned, their ties loosened, drinks in one hand and cigarettes in the other.  After a few pleasant moments talking about sports and women, the Commissar leans across the table and speaks very quietly.

"Lieutenant," he says, not unkindly.  "I know you're having doubts about our system.  At your age, so did I.  Sometimes even now I think we go too far.  But our enemies are everywhere among us, and to protect our beloved Motherland we must be vigilant and ruthless."

"Thank you for confiding in me, Comrade Commissar," the lieutenant says gratefully.  "I want to assure you that my views are precisely the same as yours."

"In that case," the Commissar replies, with a sigh, "I arrest you on a charge of anti-Party deviationism."

Herbert E. Meyer served during the Reagan Administration as Special Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA's National Intelligence Council.  He is host and producer of The Siege of Western Civilization and author of How to Analyze Information.

[Centurion2000]

Simply stated, Russia has become a fascist state.

By 2010, I expect the US to be even more fascist.

[eleni121]

NO you keep your own eyes open...I suggest you take just one course in Russian history for example...a survey course for starters.

[eleni121]

It’s really clear from your vacuous posts that you have no actual experience in either living in or studying Russia and Russian cultural/political history.

Most of the stuff you post is just so over the top Leftist stuck in the mud cold war rhetoric with no basis in reality claptrap.

Get a clue first and then we can discuss more fruitfully.
Dosvidanya

[wideawake]

It’s really clear from your vacuous posts that you have no actual experience in either living in or studying Russia and Russian cultural/political history.

Any personal comment will suffice for elenil21, as long as it can shift attention from her failure to adress the facts.

Most of the stuff you post is just so over the top Leftist stuck in the mud cold war rhetoric with no basis in reality claptrap.

This demonstrates a bit of confusion.

During the Cold War, leftists were supportive of Russia's dictatorship and conservatives were critical of Russia's dictatorship.

Now a KGB man sits in Stalin's chair and once again, conservatives are critical of Russia's dictatorship. And that KGB is attempting to revive the Cold War through his rhetoric and actions.

America is more than ready to move on - Russia is "stuck in the mud" with its tinpot KGB strongman.

Get a clue first and then we can discuss more fruitfully. Dosvidanya

It's interesting that someone who ignores the facts would ask someone who has provided them with many, many clues to "get a clue."

Good day to you too.

Oh, and tomorrow, Russia will still be 10% Muslim and will still have a KGB dictator calling the shots. And those two facts will not change no matter how you pout.

[eleni121]

During the Cold War, leftists were supportive of Russia’s dictatorship and conservatives were critical of Russia’s dictatorship.

---

This is precisely where your vacuous argument falls apart. This is where your Russophobia rear its lizard head.

Leftists did NOT and have never supported Russian people. The reveled in the destruction of millions of Russian people druing the cold war. They supported the Soviet State. Just as they now criticize Russia. And you too.

As i have prodded you earlier-—a survey course in Russian history will be a tool for your much needed enlightenment..but I suspect your anti Russian biases will preclude any rational discussion on your part.

[wideawake]

This is precisely where your vacuous argument falls apart.

Except, as we shall soon see below, you could not even follow the argument.

This is where your Russophobia rear its lizard head.

Always with the melodrama. "Russophobia" means "fear of Russians." I do not fear Russians - I feel sorry for them. I pity the Russian people.

Leftists did NOT and have never supported Russian people.

I didn't say they did. I said they supported the Russian dictatorship - and they did support the Russian dictatorship wholeheartedly. As you do now.

The reveled in the destruction of millions of Russian people druing the cold war.

Again, I didn't say they didn't. What I did say was that they supported Russia's dictatorship. Which they did, and which you do as well.

They supported the Soviet State.

That's exactly what I told you in the first place. The left supported the Russian dictatorship. In their case the Soviet Union. And who were the enforcers and preservers of the Soviet dictatorship? Why, the KGB of course. And who controls Russia today? Why, a KGB man named Vladimir Putin.

As i have prodded you earlier-—a survey course in Russian history will be a tool for your much needed enlightenment..but I suspect your anti Russian biases will preclude any rational discussion on your part.

I admit that I am no expert on Russian history, but I can say that I know more about it than you do.

However, the real issue isn't history but current reality.

And the current reality is that Russia is controlled by a KGB dictator, that Russia is 10% Muslim and that Russia is aligned with the Islamofascist regime in Tehran that sponsors Hezbollah.

[eleni121]

Silly arcane responses...not even attempting to address the real issue which is your underlying hate for the Russian people AND your inability to grasp the fundamental difference between ethnicity and ideology.

You are hopelessly stuck. Hint once more: survey course. Or maybe pick up a Solzhenitsyn book...that might help you get over whatever your demons are.

Solzhenitsyn regarding Kosovo: “there is no difference whatsoever between NATO and Hitler.”

[wideawake]

Silly arcane responses...not even attempting to address the real issue which is your underlying hate for the Russian people AND your inability to grasp the fundamental difference between ethnicity and ideology.

Again, I feel sorry for the Russian people and that after enduring 70 years of KGB dictatorships they are once again back under the yoke of a KGB dictator. If I hated the Russian people, I would be cheering Putin. But because I pity the Russian people, I criticize the dictator who currently dominates them.

Or maybe pick up a Solzhenitsyn book

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn was a victim of the Gulag system that broke his mind - a system which was run by the KGB. Just like Russia is now controlled by KGB man Vladimir Putin.

Solzhenitsyn regarding Kosovo: “there is no difference whatsoever between NATO and Hitler.”

As I said, the Gulag broke his mind.

And, Russia remains a 10% Muslim nation in the grip of a KGB dictator.

[eleni121]

Your postings are beyond bizarre-—crock of manure.

Seek help.

[wideawake]

Your postings are beyond bizarre-—crock of manure. Seek help.

Again, you have only invective not argument.

Russia remains a 10% Muslim country under the thumb of a KGB dictator.

[eleni121]

one word comes to mind: Masochist.

Seek help

[wideawake]

one word comes to mind: Masochist. Seek help

You realize, of course that: "claptrap", "seek help", "manure", etc. - no matter how many times you repeat them - are not arguments.

Earlier you were arguing along these lines: that Russia was an upholder of Judaeo-Christian civilization, that Russia was a bulwark against militant Islam and that Russia was unlike "Eurabia."

To recap, I pointed out to you that Russia has no claim to be the vanguard of Judaeo-Christianity. I gave some points earlier, but I'll expand further:

(1) Regarding Christian practice, only a tiny minority of Russians actively participate in the life of the Church, a percentage as small as any secularized European nation.

(2) Regarding Christian liberty, the Russian Church is an active collaborator with the Putin regime and its puppet president, Medvedev.

(3) Regarding Christian morality, Interpol identifies Russia as one of the world's largest hosts of child pornography sites, and Russia leads the world in abortions. Russia is also one of the world's major centers for human trafficking and Moscow is one of the world's major venues for underage prostitutes.

(4) As far as Judaism is concerned, Russia is an epicenter of repeated anti-Semitic attacks, and Russia is the main supplier of weapons technology to Iran and Syria - two countries which sponsor Hamas and therefore teh rocket attacks on israeli cities.

As far as Russia opposing militant Islam, Russia is strongly partnered in civilian trade as well as weapons with Iran, the world's premiere Islamofascist state and sponsor of terrorism.

As far as the "Eurabia" crack is concerned, Russia has a far larger percentage of Muslims than any EU state, with 10% of its citizens being Muslims.

Rather than argue any of these points, you have decided to avoid discussion and have embraced invective instead.

[eleni121]

No other explanation for someone who posts lies and more lies..except to say that he is full of manure. If the shoe fits wear it.. - no logic can fix it—it’s a result of the ID never having been restrained at about age 5.

The only comment worthy of even a brief response is your LIE about church attendance. The other putrid lies about the Orthodox Church only prove your ignorance.

—the churches are full..far fuller than here except for some of the evangelicals.

[eleni121]

Your bumbling remarks about abortion belie more ignorance about the horrors that the Russian people have experienced at the bloody hands of the secular Bolshevik/Commies. But The light strengthens at the end of the tunnel especially since the top leadership of the Russian Orthodox Church including Putin is trying hard to reverse decades of horror - something that our own nation hsa been unwilling to do even with its religious “freedoms”

http://www.physiciansforlife.org/content/view/1135/26/

[Just mythoughts]

NO you keep your own eyes open...I suggest you take just one course in Russian history for example...a survey course for starters.

What are you talking about a survey course? This world is dotted all over with many forms of doctrine claiming Christianity. Even as Christ Himself said many would come in His name... let no man deceived you. That is implicit instruction upon each individual for NOT being deceived. Christ also said I have foretold you allll things. He did not say that any one person would understand alllll things only that He had foretold all things.

I can find NO Christ instruction in survey taking but He did say "Wherefore by their fruits ye shall know them." And "Many will say to Me in *THAT* day. 'Lord, Lord, have we not prophesied in Thy name? and in Th name have cast out devils? and in Thy name done many wonderful works?' "And the will I profess unto them, 'I never knew you: depart from Me, ye that work iniquity.'

These words cut both ways to any and all who call themselves Christian.

In your own words you have likened Putin to be the head of your church, kinda like claiming Russia has the lead in who is or is not following Christ. Yet you point an accusing finger to anybody who can demonstrate the acts of Putin flying in the face of what Christ literally instructed was required to be a follower of Him.

Now it may well be just as Pharaoh was divinely used when God hardened his heart and refused to let the people go, so that the people would see WHO it was that led them literally to freedom, so be Putin. I won't *judge* Putin in the manner instructed in Matthew 7, but I can tell you that he does not bear good fruit.

[eleni121]

God Bless you and keep you. I have no argument with those who love the Lord. BUT -— from your comments I realize you know little about the Russia and the Russian Orthodox Church.

So don't take a survey course...but do a little research on your own. And remember that nowhere else on earth have so many Christians been killed in the 20th century (apart from infanticide in this country) — Russian Orthodox Christians-— as were killed in the Soviet Union by communists...and still the Church is being reborn there and survives and grows.

[eleni121]

Of some interest perhaps so that you know that this is what Orthodox Christians believe.

• Belief in Deity

Trinity of the Father (God), the Son (Christ), and the Holy Spirit, which comprise one God Almighty, an incorporeal spirit.

• Incarnations

Jesus Christ is God’s only incarnation, Son of God and God.

• Origin of Universe and Life

God created the universe and life. The Bible is not intended to be a scientific revelation, and science is not infallible. There is no desire to create conflict between science and Christian faith.

• After Death

God immediately judges who will experience happiness or unhappiness or temporary punishment. Those who kept faith in Christ, didn’t sin after baptized or repented before death, and did good works will find happiness after death. Those whose faith in Christ was lacking or corrupt, or sinned after baptism without repentance before death, or didn’t do good deeds will find unhappiness after death. Those whose only transgression was not performing good deeds may be punished temporarily. Christ will return to resurrect and judge all for eternity in either heaven or hell. Level of reward is relative to one’s deeds in life.

• Why Evil?

God made humans righteous by nature, but the original sin of Adam and Eve damaged that nature. All have been saved through Christ’s death, but those not “in Christ,” born to God, are vulnerable to being with the devil, born to the devil. Satan and his countless evil spirits work to lie and tempt those not filled with the Holy Spirit to commit wrongs.

• Salvation

All are already saved (Christ’s death and resurrection), are still being saved (through the church), and will be saved in the future (second coming of Christ). Demands faith in and prayers to God and Jesus Christ, and good works. Required sacraments include one baptism at infancy and the Holy Eucharist with confession and repentance. Adherence to moral laws is essential.

• Undeserved Suffering

Some suffering is caused by the inheritance of mortality originating from Adam and Eve’s disobedience to God, which includes vulnerability to illness and disease. Also, Satan rules the earth, causing pain and suffering. Suffering is God’s design to test, teach, or strengthen belief in Him; the greater the suffering of innocent believers, the greater will be their reward after life.

• Contemporary Issues

Abortion is a sin. Homosexuality is a sin. While marriage is considered a sacrament, divorce and remarriage are not condemned if reconciliation attempts are exhausted; however, a remarriage wedding ceremony must include prayer and repentance for the sin of divorce.

[Just mythoughts]

God Bless you and keep you. I have no argument with those who love the Lord. BUT -— from your comments I realize you know little about the Russia and the Russian Orthodox Church. So don't take a survey course...but do a little research on your own. And remember that nowhere else on earth have so many Christians been killed in the 20th century (apart from infanticide in this country) — Russian Orthodox Christians-— as were killed in the Soviet Union by communists...and still the Church is being reborn there and survives and grows.

This dispute has never been about all the wonderful Christians that have been slaughtered for being Christian. And I do know there have been unspeakable hardships for the Christian brethren. That is NOT even the subject. Christ is the head of the church and He and only He is the Saviour.

[eleni121]

Then I must say I misread your posting to me and you did the same about mine. We have no quarrel.