Posted on 02/20/2008 3:50:13 PM PST by blam
US Not Set Up To Trace Nuclear Terrorist Device In Aftermath, Report Says
ScienceDaily (Feb. 20, 2008) — A terrorist nuclear explosion devastates Manhattan, but no group takes credit. The pressure on the U.S. president to retaliate is intense. Acting on sketchy information, the president orders an attack, but it turns out to be the wrong terrorists, in the wrong country. Things go downhill from there.
To avoid that and other nightmare scenarios, a group of 12 scientists with extensive nuclear expertise, headed by Stanford physicist Michael May, is urging an international push to improve the science of nuclear forensics.
May is a research professor emeritus and former co-director the Center for International Security and Cooperation. He also is the former director of the U.S. nuclear weapons design laboratory in Livermore, Calif. Other members have experience in nuclear intelligence and defense research. One member, Jay Davis, was a United Nations inspector in Iraq.
They say there is an urgent need for more nuclear detectives, armed with science PhDs and instilled with the instincts of an investigator. And those detectives will need training, advanced equipment and stronger ties to intelligence agencies, political leaders and law enforcement.
With the right mobile equipment, nuclear detectives could sift through the debris and the radioactive cloud of an attack in this country or elsewhere and quickly glean crucial information, the scientists argue in a 60-page report was discussed Feb. 16 at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Boston.
Using radiochemistry techniques and access to proposed international databases that include actual samples of uranium and plutonium from around the world, the nuclear investigators might be able to tell the president--and the world--where the bomb fuel came from, or at least rule out some suspects.
"Nuclear forensics can make a difference," May said in an interview.
But the U.S. capacity for such investigations has deteriorated since the end of the Cold War, when the capabilities were well supported at the nuclear weapons laboratories. "Presently available trained personnel are highly skilled, but there are not enough of them to deal with an emergency and they are not being replaced," according to May. "A program to refill the pipeline of trained personnel should be undertaken."
There's also a need for development of new equipment, both in the lab and on the street, which could provide a faster analysis during a crisis. The authors also recommend more coordination between scientists and law enforcement; even simple steps such as trading phone numbers could prove crucial. "You really want the top decision makers to know where to get information," May said.
The remnants of an atomic explosion carry a host of clues, even at the microscopic level, including crystal structures and impurities.
Uranium, for example, varies in isotopic composition and impurities according to where it was mined and how it was processed. Weapons-grade plutonium can be exposed during its production to different neutron fluxes and energies, depending on the particular reactor used. It is also possible to establish the length of time plutonium spent in the reactor.
In some cases, it may be possible for scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory or Los Alamos National Laboratory to use their experience, intelligence data and software codes to reverse-engineer a nuclear bomb from its debris and learn telltale details of the design of the explosive.
These clues would not be the equivalent of fingerprints or DNA, May said, but would in most cases allow officials to at least rule out or in broad classes of possible sources.
Tracing bomb material to its source may be only the beginning of an investigation, rather than the end, as the authors acknowledge. Discovering that a terrorist explosive was made of uranium stolen from a specific site in Russia, for example, does not identify the terrorists, but it does provide a starting point, especially if there is suspicion that the bomb makers had inside help.
In their report, the scientists recommend that atomic sleuthing be applied also to radioactive materials seized by law enforcement agencies or border guards. Tracking the substances back to their source might prevent or deter attacks, they said. The authors note that the International Atomic Energy Agency's Illicit Trafficking Database contains 1,080 confirmed events involving illicit trafficking in nuclear and other radioactive materials between 1993 and 2006.
Convincing the nuclear states to share database information about their own uranium and plutonium may be difficult, May said. He suggests that the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has databases of its own, could play an important role.
Key recommendations from the report are listed below.
Advanced Lab and Field Equipment and Numerical Modeling
Forensics technologies need to be developed to allow for more rapid field measurements and accurate laboratory analysis. Also, improvements in numerical simulations that can provide weapon design information are needed.
Workforce Development
There are about 35 to 50 personnel working on nuclear forensics at the national labs, not enough to deal with an emergency, and many are reaching retirement age. A program to develop trained personnel should be undertaken that could include: funding research at universities, graduate scholarships and fellowships, internships at the labs and incentives that stimulate industrial support of faculty positions.
International Cooperation and Sample-Matching Database Development
The speed and accuracy of nuclear forensics would be significantly enhanced through a comprehensive global sample-matching database.
Exercises
The existing counter-terrorism exercise programs must test the actions, coordination, communications and policies that would be needed at all levels in the event of a nuclear detonation anywhere in the world. Exercises should be structured to illustrate the strengths and limitations of nuclear forensics, as well as to test capability and coordination in light of both the time urgent needs of the situation and also the ability to communicate to the public and manage expectations.
Review and Evaluation Groups
The U.S. Government should establish two panels of independent experts: one to systematically review, evaluate and keep records on the exercises recommended above; the other to advise the U.S. government in real time of the results of nuclear forensics and what they mean in the event of an emergency.
The report, Nuclear Forensics: Role, State of the Art, Program Needs, was written by a joint working group of the AAAS and the American Physical Society. The authors of the report are as follows.
Michael May, Chair, Stanford University Reza Abedin-Zadeh, International Atomic Energy Agency (retired) Donald Barr, Los Alamos National Laboratory (retired) Albert Carnesale, University of California-Los Angeles Philip E. Coyle, Center for Defense Information Jay Davis, Hertz Foundation Bill Dorland, University of Maryland Bill Dunlop, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Steve Fetter, University of Maryland Alexander Glaser, Princeton University Ian D. Hutcheon, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Francis Slakey, American Physical Society Benn Tannenbaum, American Association for the Advancement of Science
Adapted from materials provided by Stanford University, via EurekAlert!, a service of AAAS.
If there ever is any type of nuclear attack on the US, all of them will get it. And, it would be advisable for all of America's college professors not to get in the way, when that happens.
Congressman Billybob
Yes, because Iran is going to let you “trace” all of their nuclear material so we know for sure that they’re the ones that did it.
I must be a complete idiot because the news lately makes me question the IQ of the presumably intelligent people in our country. I’m no rocket scientist after all.
This could be just a bunch of Global Warming... I mean Global Climate Changing scientists, sensing the public becoming more wary to their agenda, looking for new jobs as Nuclear Forensics Researchers.
If the president orders the elimination of terrorists in such as scenario, how could they be the "wrong terrorists, in the wrong country"? They may not be the group that detonated the device, but under the circumstances described, the president should eliminate all known terrorist groups--and anyone unfortunate enough to be standing within 25 miles of such groups. As for the country harboring such a group, its leaders know the risks of sleeping with cobras.
U.S. policy should be that we will take out the following targets if a weapon of mass destruction is used against the U.S. or its allies. The list should frighten the al-Saud clan because it will turn their Red Sea coast into glass--and it should frighten those nations who harbor terrorists--for example, the Palestinians--because they will all cease to exist. The only way to deal with terrorists is to kill them.
I’m curious how you propose to nuke the Palestinians without causing Israel some serious inconvenience.
I don't think bombing Israel would be a particularly good idea (since that's where most of Palestinians live.) Some Palestinians are in Jordan, but that's also our ally... some are in Egypt, but that's another ally... You can't really bomb an enemy there without taking a few friends out as well. That's why Israel can bomb Lebanon but only can send a few police into Gaza, even if that.
Following the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, the 1949 Armistice Agreements between Israel and neighboring Arab states eliminated Palestine as a distinct territory. With the establishment of Israel, the remaining lands were divided amongst Egypt, Syria and Jordan. The Arab governments at this point refused to set up a State of Palestine. (link)
Its simple really. They kill a million of us, we kill 100 million of them. Stick to or improve on that ratio and the war will soon be over.
ping
Civilization will crumble if barbarians are allowed to posses nukes.
This should leave those hajiis quaking in their boots.
Couldn’t agree with you more. Just settle all their accounts at once. Sort of a Stalin approach to problem solving:
- Problem population
- Only a few are actually guilty of the offending act.
- Destroying them all ensures the guilty parties are, in fact, punished.
- The “innocent” deserve their punishment because they were so careless as to allow themselves to be identified in the same group as the really guilty parties.
Not if Obama wins.
That was the same thing that leapt to my mind. I also thought, "Kill them all. The devil will know his own."
Are you just now gettin' around to questioning that? I've been questioning that for some years now.
I'm no rocket scientist either.
The USA should have announced right after 9/11 that in the event of any kind of WMD attack on US citizens, facilities, and/or allied interests ALL state and transnational sponsors of terrorism may (at our discretion) be subject to any and all kinds of retaliation, i.e., in the uncertain and murky world we will not require definitive proof before taking out any and every govt. that supports terrorists. We should have every Islamo-scumbag government quaking in their slippers, and instead the excrement of Tehran and Damascus, et al still plays games with us.....
THAT would have been a “Bush Doctrine” worthy of respect.
Such a policy would give ever Islamo-scum govt. reason to block other groups and PREVENT major terrorist attacks on the west, since they would have to fear that any jihad morons could bring a massive retaliation upon everyone’s heads.
Congress has done everything in its power to prevent us from protecting ouselves. These traitors have blood on thier hands if God forbid there is another attack!
This is an interesting article because it displays the mind set of a group of influential persons. In their world, one would determine the guilty persons, then determine a proportional response, and execute it (with all appropriate legal “i”s dotted and “t”s crossed). To use a poor analogy, if a wolf ate attacked and killed your child, you would use all available technology to determine the guilty wolf, track in down, and shoot it. All of your actions would be done legally of course. This would include getting the proper licenses permission to enter private or government lands etc.
Another approach is to clearly tell all Heads of State, Dictators, Kings, and other leaders of nations of various types, an extremely simple message. If a group harbored in their nation launches a nuclear strike at the United States, we will retaliate with nuclear weapons. Strike targets will include their major cities and religious sites. I believe that the latter approach would be the most effective in preventing any attack.
Interesting hypothetical. We suspect that the nuclear material within the nuclear device that just destroyed Manhattan, was stolen from Russia with inside help. That provides us with a STARTING POINT ? A starting point to where ? Do they seriously suspect the Russians will cooperate with the investigation ? Just look at how they cooperated with the investigation into the radiation poisoning of their dissident. Nothing will happen. Our politicians wont even be able to figure out who to retaliate against. And even if they do figure out who to retaliate against there will be intense inside pressure to not retaliate at all since so many Politicians in DC are on the payroll of some foreign government. At any rate, if the Russians want to pay us back for Kosovo, they will simply assist some terrorist organization with getting a domestically produced nuclear device from a third party cutout (ex-Iran). So how do you say checkmate in Russian ?
However, Roger Clemmons on steroids is deemed more newsworthy.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.