Rhino wings?
Posted on 02/03/2008 10:36:28 AM PST by proudofthesouth
A brokered convention refers to a situation in United States politics where there are not enough delegates obtained during the presidential primary and caucus process for a single candidate to obtain a majority for the presidential nominating convention. Since no candidates receive enough votes on the first ballot to win the nomination, the convention is brokered through political horse-trading and multiple ballots.
Background
Before the era of presidential primaries, conventions were routinely brokered. Adlai Stevenson in 1952 for the Democratic Party and Thomas Dewey in 1948 for the Republican Party were the last two candidates selected through a brokered convention.
Since then, there have been many years where brokered conventions were projected, but did not come to pass. In 1988, a brokered convention was predicted for the Democrats since multiple candidates won the Super Tuesday primaries that year.[1]
Several factors encourage decision in the primary process. First, candidates tend to get momentum as they go through the process, due to the bandwagon effect. Thus, one or two candidates will be portrayed by the media to voters as the front runner due to their placement in the first primaries and caucuses, and as also-ran candidates drop out, their supporters will tend to vote for the leaders. [2] Theorists have identified two types of political momentum, piecemeal and all-at-once, with different impacts on front-runners and those right behind them. [3] Secondly, political parties wish to avoid the negative publicity from a brokered convention, as a candidate nominated from the brokered convention will be seen as weak and must climb additional hurdles to gain election.
2008
In the 2008 election cycle, the possibility of a brokered convention remains for both parties. On the Republican side, although some states award delegates using the winner take all system, many large states are dividing their delegation by congressional district, which will result in easier splitting of delegates. Pundits argued that with the lack of a front runner in the Republican field and the number of competitive candidates, voters would not coalesce around one or two candidates and a brokered convention could result. This scenario has recently become significantly less likely, however. John McCain's success in the hotly contested Florida primary makes him a strong front runner going into Super Tuesday.[4] On the Democratic side, the current split of support for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama could result in a race where no candidate receives a majority of delegates on the first ballot. John Edwards's withdrawal from the race makes this scenario much less probable.
Sounds a lot like a caucus, only the party delegates are caucusing and wrangling for who they want (not for who their voters wanted). Since this is internal party stuff, it is not controlled by law, but by party rules.
Pierce was a Democrat; he only won because the Whig Party was in the process of breaking up over the issue of the extension of slavery to territories.
None of the RINO triplets have the delegates to win outright.
None of the three RINO wings ( Rocky-Feller wing, Church wing, and the Military wing) wants to give up so the party power brokers take over.
First off they explain to the nutbar wing that he really isn’t one of the wings so he has to go to Texas and be a Doctor or Congressman or sumpin.
Then they explain to the Rocky-Feller RINO that he would lose 3/4 of the Red states so he will have to go back to a blue state and be a Bishop or run the Special Olympics, things like that.
They offer the Church RINO a publicly funded Church/ Wild game cooking show on PBS and he is so happy he can’t stop grinning.
The hard part comes when they are forced to tell the Military RINO that he is....well....Crazy... and he just has to go.
From behind the stage curtain out walks Fred Thompson and the Hall erupts in wild cheers!
Sumpin like that.
That is different from the superdelegates on the dem side (where they are actually called superdelegates). Superdelegates vote in the convention and are not beholden to the states' primaries. Republican alternate delegates are mostly there as a perk for working in their local party, allowing them to go to the convention and party as much as they want. If the regular delegate is unable to perform her/his duty, the alternate steps in.
Just what I was thinking...
Amen. Of course, that Psalm is specifically about Israel, but that doesn’t lessen its more general power.
BTW, the 12th verse has been the impetus for many Jewish people to come to saving grace in the Messiah, Yeshua.
Rhino wings?
Sounds good. Let's stick with the Kings again--how about the man that Ann Coulter calls the best man in DC--Congressman Steve King from Iowa. (He's a closet Freeper)
And they all lived happily ever after.
Thats how I see it...lol
I don’t think any of the candidates were really conservative. The closest to a conservative was Ron Paul, and he had other fatal flaws.
“...CZB-
YOU CRACK ME UP!! LOL!! Well, you could be right...However, it would NOT be Rice or Cheney. No Bush Admin person is going to get the nod from conservatives. 8 yrs is enough, too much, actually...
If they nominated Kansas GOP Chair and GREAT anti-illegal alien laywer Kris Kobach, I’d be in Seventh Heaven...”
A brokered convention that gets beyond the third ballot would be looking for a high profile figure, a “savior” type. The longer everything drags on, the better the Bush administration will look no matter your POV. Just wait until the second year of a McCain or Clinton admin. People will be LONGING for the halcyon days of Bush 43. Laugh all you want but mark these words.
By the same token, if chaos were to overtake the convention, a figure from the Bush administration like Condi Rice, who is high-profile and well-liked in many sectors of the party could fill the bill like no one else. I doubt any of this would happen, I’m just sayin’...
All the RINO supporters on here who support Romney, McCain or Huckabee don’t want a brokered convention because they know their favorite liberal candidate would likely lose out.
. . . but even if you consider Romney unacceptable you have to vote for him is McCain is unacceptable too. And while there certainly are questions about Romney, there are answers about McCain.So vote Romney, and just see how it comes out. I certainly plan to - much good my vote does in NY.
The Liberal Party of Canada’s convention went to 2 ballots in the 1980’s...after the first ballot (as I recall there were 7 candidates on the first ballot), candidates 4-7, one at a time, walked over to candidate #2’s camp.
The candidate leading on the 1st ballot, John Turner, won on the 2nd ballot — despite that the visible brokering anyway went #2’s way.
Turner ended up getting trounced by Brian Mulroney in the general election — Pierre Trudeau had resigned to give Turner a head start, but Turner ended up having one of the shortest prime ministerships on record.
The chances of a brokered convention according to Intrade are 7.4% for the GOP, which is currently lower than the chances for the Democraps at 8.1%. So if you think these chances are low, you could put money down & buy contracts and make money if you end up being right.
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
DEM.NOM.2008.BROKERED
The 2008 Democratic Pres. Nominee to be selected at a Brokered Convention M Trade 5.8 13.9 8.1 264 0
REP.NOM.2008.BROKERED
The 2008 Republican Pres. Nominee to be selected at a Brokered Convention M Trade 7.0 14.9 7.4 310 0
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