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A Provocation By Iran Could Have A Major Influence On Our Election
The Day ^ | January 16, 2008 | Bridget Johnson

Posted on 01/16/2008 12:54:23 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

IIn the movie “Die Hard 2,” a terrorist is laying out his nefarious plans to the air-traffic control chief — played by one Sen. Fred Thompson — at Dulles International Airport.

“Dammit, you can't do this!” an aghast Thompson tells the terrorist character.

“I am doing this!” snarls the terrorist.

With similar melodramatic aplomb, the Iranians played a potentially deadly game of chicken just as all eyes were fixated on Thompson and the rest of the New Hampshire hopefuls. As Iranian speedboats confronted U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf, a radio transmission intoned in the speaker's best Darth Vader English, “I am coming to you. ... You will explode after ... minutes.”

Considering the timing of their provocation — when press attention was turned elsewhere, as were the eyes of Capitol Hill — what meaning did their actions hold?

Considering recent U.S. military history — aka the suicide-boat bomber plowing into the USS Cole off Yemen in 2000 — the Iranians knew very well that speedboats zipping toward ships constituted a provocative act, regardless of where the accompanying audio originated. If we assume — as cannot be refuted by Iran's release of a five-minute video supposedly detailing the 20-minute incident — that Iran's speedboats were messing around with the warships, this high-seas bullying would be backed up by the pattern of British sailors being taken hostage in 2004 and 2007.

And, finally, consider that if Iran provokes us into a response with its dangerous games, it could alter the course of the election.

For all of the Ramsey Clark fringe lefties that have insisted we're just dying to attack Iran next, being goaded into battle by the Islamic Republic would turn into mainstream left-of-center ammunition charging that Republicans are uncontrollably militaristic and not — dare I say — “change agents.”

Iran desperately needs an anti-war president to win in 2008. It needs the heat off its back, particularly as it proceeds with its nuclear “energy” program and forges alliances with anti-American regimes in Latin America. “We must get ready to rule the world ... the Islamic government in Iran is the prerequisite for a worldwide Islamic state,”Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in fall 2006.

In its Jan. 8 coverage of the New Hampshire primaries, the Islamic Republic News Agency focused solely on Barack Obama's poll lead over Hillary Clinton going into the day's vote. “But I don't want to just end the war, I want to change the mind-set that got us into the war,” IRNA quoted Obama, apparently from a rally the day before the primary. No doubt IRNA eagerly interpreted this as a de facto acceptance of American blame.

Obama had already earned points last summer, though, by stating he would meet with rogue leaders including Iran, thus offering legitimacy to a regime that obsessively trumpets “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.”

The Iranian provocation made it to the debate stage Thursday night in South Carolina, where the GOP contenders were asked whether Bush made the right move in not blowing the speedboats out of the water.

“One more step and they would have been introduced to those virgins. ... Iran was testing us,” Thompson said.

Rudy Giuliani added, “This incident should wake a lot of people up.”

“Maybe the Iranians think we're weaker because of the NIE,”John McCain said. “... Don't think this wasn't a serious situation.”

Ron Paul crowed the line that the mullahs are tickled to hear: “People are looking around for an excuse to bomb Iran.” The audience laughed.

You know the Iranians were watching and taking notes as they plot their next unabashed ploy. “IRGC Deputy Commander in charge of Naval Forces Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi said on Thursday that the U.S. administration needs to make hue and cry to achieve its political goals and cover up the failed visit of the U.S. president to the Middle East region,” IRNA reported Thursday about the boat incident.

Iran's goal in Campaign 2008 is to paint the pro-defense candidates as paranoid and reactionary. With acts of provocation that it then hotly contests, it plants sympathetic seeds in the minds of voters who had been leaning against any possible U.S. military intervention in the future.

If Iran can pull off a well-timed provocation between now and November, it could affect who becomes our next president.

Maybe next time the Iranians choose more high-seas high jinks, they can even get Oliver Stone to direct the video version. Or at least get Sean Penn to narrate.


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 2008; ahmadinejad; antiwar; barackhusseinobama; barackobama; caliphate; defeatocrats; democraticparty; democratparty; democrats; dhimmicrats; dhimmis; election; electionpresident; elections; fredthompson; gop; gwot; iran; islam; islamofascism; jihad; jihadists; mahmoudahmadinejad; middleeast; mideast; muslims; navy; nuclearweapons; obama; persiangulf; persians; provocations; republicans; revolutionaryguards; shiite; terrorism; terrorists; war; wot
Very probable scenario.
1 posted on 01/16/2008 12:54:24 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If Iran does that, it could backfire on them.


2 posted on 01/16/2008 3:11:45 AM PST by Biggirl (A biggirl with a big heart for God's animal creation, with 4 cats in my life as proof. =^..^=)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It is mindboggling to me that our citizens are so self obsessed that they refuse to see the world around them. We are living in a very dangerous time. Free health care, the economy, alternative fuel and global warming amounts to a hill of beans when there are so many rogue counties all with intent of bringing us down.


3 posted on 01/16/2008 3:32:28 AM PST by panthermom (DUNCAN HUNTER 2008)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
As Iranian speedboats confronted U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf, a radio transmission intoned in the speaker's best Darth Vader English, “I am coming to you. ... You will explode after ... minutes.”


4 posted on 01/16/2008 7:59:40 AM PST by G8 Diplomat (Creatures are divided into 6 kingdoms: Animalia, Plantae, Fungi, Monera, Protista, & Saudi Arabia)
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To: panthermom
Free health care, the economy, alternative fuel and global warming.

You are so right! non of the issues will matter if we are brought down.

Women will wear Burkas, the men will kneel and bow 5 times a day and the air will be filled with the obscene chant of the call to prayer.. God help us if that happens.

5 posted on 01/16/2008 10:07:48 AM PST by oswegodeee (Dee ( Born and raised in the south, yummy corn bread and BBQ ))
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To: panthermom

Oh yeah I forgot, they will have a hay day with public executions starting with the gays, then the prostitutes and finally most of Hollywood for their immoral behavior.


6 posted on 01/16/2008 10:11:01 AM PST by oswegodeee (Dee ( Born and raised in the south, yummy corn bread and BBQ ))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Could be. The Presidential tour of the Arab oilfields was partly to pull the teeth out of this scenario. Saudi especially don’t want anything like this going on.


7 posted on 01/16/2008 10:13:11 AM PST by RightWhale (Dean Koonz is good, but my favorite authors are Dun and Bradstreet)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Simple answer, if it helps the bitch get elected, it happens. Check with Clinton political machine to understand if it will happen.


8 posted on 01/16/2008 10:15:31 AM PST by Beatthedrum
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To: Beatthedrum

I hope Iran does something and people actually get to see what a Hillary CINC looks like. Even her hen base will be alarmed.


9 posted on 01/16/2008 10:21:01 AM PST by txhurl (Yes there were WMDs / Thompson/Netanyahu '08 / Yes you will vote against Clinton)
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To: txflake

I imagine any attack would come before the election, if it would make Bush and by association republicans look bad. The bitch could start yelling about how safe are we really, blah, blah, blah !!!


10 posted on 01/16/2008 2:24:21 PM PST by Beatthedrum
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