Astronomers Monitor Asteroid to Pass Near Mars (odds are now 1 in 25 of an impact)

NASA media ^ | Dec. 28, 2007 | NASA

[Lokibob]

Updated Dec. 28, 2007 -- Astronomers have identified asteroid 2007 WD 5 in archival imagery. With these new observations, scientists at NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif have refined their trajectory estimates for the asteroid. Based on this latest analysis, the odds for the asteroid impacting Mars on Jan. 30 are now 1-in-25 -- or about 4 percent.

[Lokibob]

Well, they have revised the odds downward of a Mars strike to 1 in 25 from 1 in 70.

I think it is likely we will see an impact the end of Jan.

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

Is there an asteroid WD40?

[Diogenesis]

This proves GLobal Warming.

[Karliner]

ACK....where’s the danged cartoons and the hairy unkempt street corner guy with the sign, “ The world is coming to an end.”??

[Vaquero]

I’ll just destroy it with my Uranium PU-36 Explosive Space Modulator.

[Karliner]

(The End of the World..)

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Wouldn’t that be revising the odds up? “Up” implying more likely, “down” less likely?

BTW, if the probability of an event is 1 in 25, the odds against are 24 to 1. (Odds in favor 1 to 24). [Probability is the ratio of a favorable outcome to all outcomes. Odds are the ratio of favorable to unfavorable outcomes.]

I trust the “astronomers” that it’s unlikely (1 chance in 25) that this asteroid will hit Mars in late January, 1980. Since you think it’s likely, would you care to post a friendly wager at even odds? (Terms to be mutually agreed.)

[CindyDawg]

They said it wouldn’t bother us but I’m skeptical about that.

[Lokibob]

You are, of course correct. I should have said that the probability of an impact was lowered to 1 in 25.

Last week NASA was saying 1 in 70, so this is really getting better of a great display.

BTW, I said last week that I had a feeling NASA was hedging their bets on an impact, so this lowering of the PROBABILITY was no surprise.

.....Bob

[Always Right]

This proves GLobal Warming.

Probably all those space probes we put up there.

[Kitanis]

You beat me too it.. that was the first thought for my reply to this thread

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Bob, the probability of impact went from 1/70 to 1/25.

1/25 > 1/70, ergo (Latin for “see!!”) the probability increased ;)

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Global Warming Theory (GWT) [whatever the Hell it is] is extremely robust with respect to data, all observations confirm it with probability 1.0.

[alicewonders]

By any chance, are you a math teacher?

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Read my profile.

I’m an engineer who “does that sort of thing” for a living. I actually get paid to [inter alia] calculate orbits based on measurements and make estimates of the probabilities of events associated with those calculations. Not interplanetary orbits and not quite the same kind of events, but a not very distant cousin.

[rocksblues]

I want to speak to the person that stated 1 in 25 or about 4%.

Did he take a poll and include a margin of error?

[fanfan]

I trust the “astronomers” that it’s unlikely (1 chance in 25) that this asteroid will hit Mars in late January, 1980.

I would say that there is a statistical improbability that this asteroid will hit Mars in January, 1980.

;-)

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

I caught that on re-reading, too late. For some of us, it’s always January 6, 1980 00:00:00 UTC.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

I would say that there is a statistical improbability that this asteroid will hit Mars in January, 1980.

I'm using the proleptic Vulcan calendar, of course.

[montag813]

ACK....where’s the danged cartoons and the hairy unkempt street corner guy with the sign, “ The world is coming to an end.”??

Paging Michael Bay...