Posted on 12/04/2007 6:27:57 AM PST by nuconvert
The Iran NIE [Michael Rubin]
I'm at a conference overseas and just got a chance to look through the highlights in the International Herald Tribune. A couple quick thoughts:
The NIE appears focused on any indigenous Iranian program only. After the Syria episode, what does import of nuclear weapon-relevant technology do to the timeline?
If Iran was working on a nuclear weapons program until 2003, what does this say about U.S. policy in the late Clinton period and European engagement? Is it fair to say that while Iran spoke of dialogue of civilizations, it was working on a nuclear weapons program?
Iran has staunchly denied it ever had such a program. Will it now detail it? Will the analysts who agreed with Iran come clean and explain how they got it wrong?
What role does the intelligence community place on ideology within the Islamic Republic and its decision-making? Talking strictly of costs and benefits in Middle East decision-making always falls flats, since so many regional decisions do not maximize benefits. Indeed, while Tehran can be pragmatic (both for good and for bad), its actions seldom maximize benefits for Iran and its strategic position.
Many critics of sanctions and democratization policy said simply that there was no time to implement such policies. Doesn't this NIE provide more time for comprehensive sanctions and civil society-building and support to continue, certainly alongside diplomacy?
If pressure works, doesn't it make sense to have a third round of sanctions (which Condoleezza Rice had said would be completed by the end of last month) than relief from pressure?
The NIE settles the issue, Iran stopped processing Uranium but continues to process Uranium. /s
That clears-up everything.
dingy to CIA, make Iran nukes go away.
CIA to dingy, poof they are gone.
Hillary Matters thanks you.
As far as I’m concerned, the candidate selected in the primaries in each of these states is the candidate that should be on the ballot in those states. If that person isn’t the same as the one chosen at the conference, too bad. The dems simply split their own ticket. Or if these states have no delegates, no dem name appears on the tickets for those states. Either point makes Michigan and Florida likely Republican pick ups.
How did my post wind up on the wrong thread?
Frankly, that would not surprise me at all. What do they do if a Pubbie is elected?
Wow! Talk about hijacking a thread! ;-)
But we can’t question their patriotism? ;-)
That would seem to indicate that Iran's program had already progressed to the point that what they are waiting on is the enriched uranium.
That would seem to indicate that any unless Iran has not merely halted efforts at building a bomb, but actually destroyed their research, the continued enrichment of uranium represents an active nuclear weapons program.
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