Posted on 07/28/2007 10:00:07 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
WASHINGTON: Independent security experts in Washington are not convinced by the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that accuses Pakistan of facilitating the relocation of Al Qaeda in its tribal areas. They say that the people on the job at the CIA are “incompetent” and not sufficiently experienced to give such sweeping “findings”.
“Approximately half of the analysts at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) have less than five years on the job,” said Larry Johnson, a former employee of the CIA and the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. “Most of the new hires came on board after 9/11, were new to the Agency and are in their 20s, and have no prior experience in the intelligence field. The reason there are so many new hires in these positions is attrition.”
According to former intelligence officials, the inexperience of these young analysts is one reason why the conclusions of the much written about the newly released National Intelligence Estimate, which paints an alarming but unspecific picture of Al Qaeda resurgence in North Waziristan, should be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism.
While it is true that the NIE is a consensus-analysis provided by the entire US intelligence community, the CIA’s contribution to this document is a crucial one.
Among the reasons for concern is that there are no clear or concrete details provided in either the public or classified versions of the new NIE pertaining to specific locations of Al Qaeda training camps in Pakistan.
The same sources are concerned that the NIE’s findings are largely made up of conjecture, speculation and opinion as opposed to hard intelligence data, and that there is a glaring gap between the report’s content and the alarming summary of its findings. Indeed, these sources confirm that if any hard intelligence existed with regards to locations of these training camps, the US would have bombed these targets long ago regardless of the wishes of the government of Pakistan.
“The lack of concrete targets in the tribal areas, a region roughly the size of Belgium, has raised serious worries about the efficacy of such a move”, said one of these officials, who asked not to be named.
Another former intelligence official, who also asked not to be named for security reasons, said that the NIE’s findings are not lack specificity, but could actually damage the relationship between the US and Pakistan if American troops or NATO planes are sent into Waziristan to bomb unspecific targets. This act could, says the official, be perceived by the Pakistani people as an act of war, and further, that the Pakistani government is not prepared to “commit suicide” for the Bush regime. With the political situation in Pakistan extremely delicate, all the officials Daily Times spoke to stressed that a bombing or any other type of raid could permanently damage the relationship and destabilise not only the Musharraf government, but the entire region.
There is also concern that the saber-rattling on display by certain elements of the Bush administration, particularly Homeland Security Advisor Frances Townsend, is the administration’s determination to hold the line domestically. With President Bush’s approval ratings in free fall and the war in Iraq progressing badly, the NIE’s findings of an Al Qaeda resurgence for which Pakistan is to be blamed rather than the Bush administration seems quite convenient.
Republicans running for reelection in 2008 are desperate for good news at all costs, and sending war planes to take out alleged Al Qaeda in Pakistan would resonate with the “get them over there before they come over here” slogan. But, say independent, this short-term ‘solution’ could lead to serious consequences as well because they have not been thought through by the administration and are not being questioned thoroughly by the American press. They said intelligence sources are concerned that a bombing raid could ultimately destabilise the man in whose basket the US has placed all its eggs.
fyi
Reports: Pak Army strikes in Waziristan(Nine locations struck)
Dems fighting back...
I’m not going to argue with the part about CIA incompetence.
The Leftists sure like to use him as a CIA expert.....Isn’t he working for Hillary now?
“They say that the people on the job at the CIA are “incompetent” and not sufficiently experienced to give such sweeping “findings”. “
So if I understand this correctly, the CIA are incompetent boobs unless they find something that hurts the administration. Then they are brilliant analysts.
Indeed, these sources confirm that if any hard intelligence existed with regards to locations of these training camps, the US would have bombed these targets long ago regardless of the wishes of the government of Pakistan.
What does he base this on?
I think our Mr Johnson needs to remember all the successes his crew gave us.
There’s a media offensive against the CIA; the local shill sheet had a story about lawsuits brought by women fired from CIA jobs because of their foreign connections (that’s what they claim — the CIA says they were fired because they were piss poor). Thanks Ernest.
CIA leak: Now it can be told; Novak reveals in new book how the secret unfolded
Chicago Sun-TImes | July 8th, 2007 | Robert D. Novak
Posted on 07/09/2007 1:36:02 AM EDT by FreedomCalls
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1862853/posts
I’ve never seen any reason to trust anything coming out of Larry Johnson, but he might be right here as in a stopped clock, twice per day.....
I wondered when the NIE came out whether the “Al Qaeda resurgence” theme might have been exaggerated from political motivations — certainly some of the MSM distortions of it (AL Qaeda is so powerful we haven’t made any real progress since 9/11, etc.) have such an agenda.
Don’t know why Larry Johnson would bother de-bunking something that seems to hurt the admin., except that his claims about CIA ‘attrition’ are probably meant to be blamed upon this admin.
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