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Posted on 11/03/2006 8:10:00 AM PST by SmithL
As Phil Angelides' hopes of becoming governor of California sink to zero, political junkies and interest groups are turning their attention to a handful of other statewide offices that, with less than a week of campaigning remaining, are still in contention.
The big question is whether a very strong re-election vote for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, perhaps even a landslide, will translate into Republican gains in down-ballot contests, especially if Angelides' poor showing depresses Democratic turnout.
As a new Field Poll underscores, Democrats have pretty much sewed up two of those offices, attorney general and treasurer. Former Gov. (and current Oakland Mayor) Jerry Brown is running far ahead of state Sen. Charles Poochigian for attorney general, while Attorney General Bill Lockyer is coasting against Claude Parrish, a member of the Board of Equalization, for treasurer. Republican Steve Poizner, a very wealthy Silicon Valley businessman, meanwhile, enjoys a strong lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante for insurance commissioner.
Money and name identification are factors in all three. Poochigian might have exploited Brown's somewhat erratic political record, including his opposition to the death penalty, but was never able to secure big money. Lockyer, meanwhile, had amassed a large war chest and Parrish has been virtually invisible.
. . . The big surprise of the year is that two conservative Republicans are in serious contention for the remaining two statewide offices, lieutenant governor and state controller, and turnout -- not so much how many vote, but who votes -- could tip the scales on both.
The Field Poll found Democratic Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi and Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock running neck-and-neck for lieutenant governor with relatively few undecided voters, even though the poll also found that Democratic voter turnout is likely to be six percentage points higher than GOP turnout.
(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...
FYI
You know, I'm getting sick of these polls. It's like the hypochrondriac who checks his temperature every two minutes. Of course there are going to be fluxuations but it means nothing unless there is such a trend as in 103 degrees for three hours or something.
The problem with these polls is there is no way to compare one poll to another with any degree of certainty. There are too many variables from the questions, to the latest news headlines, to the time of day polled, to the polling base. The only poll that matters is Tuesday and absentee/early voting. (For instance, we got a call at 10:15 last night supposedly looking for information although I suspect it was a campaign call disguised as a poll. As I told the caller and not politely, you don't call people after 10 pm unless it's an emergency.)
I got called by a poll a few days ago. I told them I didn't do polls and hung up. Wonder how they count refusals, and further, whether the left or the right responds to polls with greater frequency?
I will occasionally cooperate with a poll but sometimes I have found the "poll" was nothing more than a campaign call with questions like "Should we re-elect that current corrupt so-and-so or change the course by electing so-and-so?" That's not a valid poll. I'm much more likely to participate in an internet poll than by phone because it gives me a chance to study the questions before I answer.
McClintock Ping List.
Please freepmail me if you want on or off this list
BTTT
So we are to have the infamous Rose Bird sponsor as Attorney General and, as Treasurer, that useless hack POS, Lockyer.
Great...
Looks like the Great Equivocator lacks coat tails. Or did he endorse those two fools...
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