Posted on 10/21/2006 6:38:01 AM PDT by kellynla
I've been in a tiny minority of late - well, it's been me and Karl Rove and a few others - who worry that the polls indicating a Democratic tsunami taking over both houses of Congress may be vastly overstating the likely result.
When NBC reports that "52% say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 37% who want Republicans to maintain power", that's both a misleading and irrelevant statistic. This is not a national election. It is about 500 individual elections, the vast majority of which are fixed by structural factors including gerrymandering, money, population disparities and the power of incumbency. I've beaten this horse to death , and the great Molly Ivins has picked it up, as have a few others.
This morning I happened upon another significant statistical analysis which states the problem as follows: "After their stunning loss of both houses of Congress in 1994, the Democrats have averaged over 50% of the vote in congressional races in every year except 2002, yet they have not regained control of the House. The same is true with the Senate: in the last three elections (during which 100 senators were elected), Democratic candidates have earned three million more votes than Republican candidates, yet they are outnumbered by Republicans in the Senate as well. 2006 is looking better for the Democrats, but our calculations show that they need to average at least 52% of the vote (which is more than either party has received since 1992) to have an even chance of taking control of the House of Representatives."
(Excerpt) Read more at commentisfree.guardian.co.uk ...
Funny the ultra liberals get it!
Shoot, they're on to us.
That was where I stopped.
I think everyone here at Free Republic is a week to 10 days ahead of the liberal media. The momentum is on the side of the GOP. And I don't believe any dirty trick for here on out is going to change momentum.
Several of us have been saying this for months. It has little or nothing to do with national polling.
Be sure to go to the article for excellent links to more information and data.
Why didn't you stop at "Eric Alterman"? Historian Eric Alterman that is.
Hmmmm. The libs are getting nervous and are "hedging their bets".
I wish I had.
He's blaming the the Black Caucus and saying they are part of the evil VRWC ????
Just found out this morning that Roskam (R-IL6) is now ahead of Duckworth by 4 pts!!
The worm is turning! (if one ever believed the MSM in the first place.)
The numbers are skewed by urban 90-10 and 80-20 districts, though there are many more 55-45 and 52-48 districts nationwide. Where they do their polling is a major factor.
As for congressional districts, they are drawn by state houses and typically for the advantage of incumbents, by putting all the single party majority areas well within single congressional districts, while areas that regularly split their vote almost evenly are salted around a little in each of those, but not enough to make the seat "swing".
As a result, only 10-15% of house seats are actually competitive for both parties. The rest are locks for the party that has them today, pretty much, unless the underlying electorate changes drastically. Which there is no sign it is doing - the last 3 elections have all been within a couple of percent, the country is about evenly divided, etc.
All that said, right now the Dems are still favored to take the house but not the senate. If the republicans lose seats but barely hold on to the house it will be a minor political miracle. And look for RINOs to cast about for the price they can get for selling their seat by switching parties, if it is too close.
IB4RYMBP !!!!!
(...In Before Rove You Magnificent Bastard Pic)...
It's quiet on that side...way too quiet..are they re-loading or searching their pockets for the cyanide?
For the vast number of people throughout the south...these national polls mean absolutely nothing. Its the candidate and their platform at stake. I could care less about some idiot congressman from Florida who who did some stupid stuff. I'm voting for myself and my district.
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