Polls: GOP losing grip on Senate

McClatchy News ^ | 10/2/6 | Steven Thomma

[SmithL]

Democrats must gain at least six seats to grab control - a feat that is suddenly not so farfetched.

WASHINGTON -- Democrats are within striking distance of taking control of the U.S. Senate on Election Day, a series of new polls for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC showed today.

Democratic Senate candidates are tied, have a slight edge or an outright lead in every one of 10 pivotal battleground states. No Democrat trails in those races; no Republican leads. Democrats must gain six seats to capture control of the 100-member Senate.

Democratic candidates have a strong chance to win all seven at-risk Republican Senate seats -- with their candidates tied in Virginia and Missouri, holding a slight edge in Ohio, Rhode Island and Tennessee, and leading in Montana and Pennsylvania.

Democrats are also in position to hold their three most vulnerable seats -- with a slight edge in New Jersey and leading in Maryland and Washington.

This in-depth, state-by-state look at the political landscape of 10 Senate battleground states five weeks before Election Day, Nov. 7, is based on a series of polls by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, Inc.

Seven were conducted for McClatchy Newspapers and MSNBC, and three for other newspapers were made available to McClatchy. Each state poll was conducted by phoning 625 likely voters in the final week of September. The error margin is plus or minus four percentage points.

"These numbers look very encouraging for the Democrats to take control of the Senate," said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker.

Democrats are faring well and Republicans are on the defensive for several reasons: dissatisfaction with President Bush, disapproval of the war in Iraq, anti-incumbent sentiment and some anxiety about the economy.

[SmithL]

[Perdogg]

Allen and Talent win. I think Santorum pulls it out. Menedez may have to withdraw.

[Fenris6]

I hope the Left trusts MSNBC. How about that exit polling Kerry?

I go with Rasmussen. Even on the bad days:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/BalanceofPower.htm

[Hazcat]

I have a feeling that Foley was the 'straw'.

[FlipWilson]

That the races might be tightening, I will buy. That the dems will win enough to gain control is a harder sell.

[Disturbin]

"Each state poll was conducted by phoning 625 likely voters in the final week of September"

What are the chances that those were "registered" voters?

[MaestroLC]

Polls are useless and biased to Dems. However, if the Senate is lost, I blame John McCain and his RINO cabal.

[RockinRight]

Steele has a shot.

These polls are nuts...GOP doing better, Dems doing better, back and forth...

[Gone GF]

Agreed that Allen will win.

[SDGOP]

I love how w hen republicans are tied with democrats or close, the media makes no acknowledgement of it. (like our minnesota, washington, new jersey and maryland races) Just saying that democrats are ahead or republicans have no chance.

[MaestroLC]

I have a feeling that Foley was the 'straw'.

These polls were conducted before the Foley thing broke.

[MNJohnnie]

Hmm, funny thing. Gallup just did a 48&D-48%R LIKELY voter poll. They found all this supposed Democrat strenth VANISHES when you quit over sampling Democrats in your Junk Polling.

Another intresting thing. Even a significant portion of Democrats do NOT agree this election is all about Bush. In Gallup's last poll of 48%D-48%R Likely voters, only 32% of respondents felt their vote this November 7th, would be a vote against the President.

SO even 1/3 of Democrats do not buy the Democrat Noise Machine's propaganda that it is all about Bush. But then I guess we should not be too hard on the Democrats. Their pets in the American Junk Media skipped right over this part of the poll. The only people who even mentioned this aspect of the last Gallup poll were the European press and then they only mentioned it in passing.

[FlipWilson]

Hmmm, isn't it funny how a month ago we were hearing that the dems had already won the House and now suddenly there is no mention of the dems winning the House. Now the MSM is harping on the Senate as a shoo in for the dems.

Seems to me that wherever the dems have the best chance is what the MSM paints as being a shoo in. Two weeks ago the economy was THE issue, then gas prices dropped and suddenly Iraq is THE issue.

[Always Right]

The Dems would have to run the table to pull this out. I think they are being a bit optomistic on several of the races, but they do have an outside chance.

[Perdogg]

I would be concerned about the Senate if we didn't have a bunch RINOs in the Senate.

The ideological balance will not shift in the Senate in this election.

[wagglebee]

I think the way the GOP leadership has handled the Foley matter (calling for investigations, not defending him, etc.) will actually wind up helping the GOP.

[cousair]

All of this does one thing if true...it puts Pelosi three heartbeats from the Presidency...scary to say the least. Polls are never honest...and there is still time..so lets not panic!!!!!! The Democrat Party is one thing for sure.....totally dishonest when it comes to gaining power. They beg, borrow,steal and will kill for it...so beware! They did it last time in Washington State for Governor...three recounts...count em...three...and the votes they needed which won the office, came from an address at the Court House!!

[in hoc signo vinces]

Exactly...and 625, or even 1000, as a sample size is oh so representative /sarcasm.

Polls are only good for strippers.

[MNJohnnie]

Actually it will almost certainly shift against us. For example, if Allen and Santroum lose it is a major shift to the Left. Every Senate seat the Republicans lose makes the RINOS that much more powerful since the balance between Dems and Repbs will be that much closer.