Posted on 09/27/2006 1:25:28 PM PDT by okstate
Republican Sen. John Ensign retains a lead of more than 20 percentage points over his Democratic challenger, Jack Carter, according to a new Review-Journal poll.
The poll, conducted last week by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., found Ensign supported by 58 percent of those surveyed and Carter by 35 percent.
The 23-point lead for Ensign is a good sign for the incumbent, who has consistently performed strongly in the Review-Journal's polling, although some other surveys have found him to be more vulnerable. A Mason-Dixon poll last month gave Ensign 54 percent of the vote; one in April put him at 60 percent.
"Carter's gotten his name recognition up, but Ensign's staying over 50, which is a very good place to be," Mason-Dixon Managing Partner Brad Coker said. "There's nothing (in these results) to put this race on the upset screen," that is, to put it on the list of contests being watched nationwide because the incumbent might lose.
The poll surveyed 625 Nevadans considered likely to vote in November and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. One percent of respondents supported the Libertarian candidate, and an Independent American Party candidate did not get a statistically significant number of votes. Six percent of those surveyed were undecided.
Carter, a businessman and the son of former President Jimmy Carter, noted that various polls have put Ensign ahead of him by widely varying amounts, from just 3 percentage points to the current gulf of 23 points. He said he simply doesn't believe any of the numbers have a bearing on the race because it hasn't really started yet.
"What difference does any poll make when you've got six weeks to go, and you've been out of commission for a couple of weeks?" Carter said. "He (Ensign) hasn't weathered any kind of criticism yet."
Carter was recently hospitalized for two weeks, half of the time in intensive care, with severe colitis, an inflammation of the colon. He said Monday he was not 100 percent well but "in the high 80s."
Carter noted that Ensign, who has had a big fundraising advantage according to campaign finance disclosures, has been airing television commercials since Labor Day. The two ads, airing frequently across the state, put a positive spin on Ensign's record and his previous career as a veterinarian, even showing him wearing a lab coat and cuddling a puppy.
Carter aired commercials for a short time before last month's primary but is not currently on the air. And none of his previous ads went after Ensign. Carter said the race will really turn around when he goes on the attack.
"There's been no real conflict between Ensign and I so far," he said. "Everybody knows who he is, but I bet you not 10 percent of them know that he has a 96 percent record of voting with President Bush. I don't guarantee to beat this guy, but I do guarantee to tell people about his record."
Ensign campaign chairman Mike Slanker acknowledged that Ensign has had a free ride so far. "I'm certain that Jack Carter is going to start spending money very soon," he said.
"We have and always will take this race very seriously," Slanker added. "We've seen numbers all over the place. We're running a very serious campaign, and we intend to win."
Ensign doesn't want to be seen as taking victory for granted, but there doesn't seem to be much chance he can lose, said University of Nevada, Las Vegas, political scientist David Damore.
"That's a blowout," Damore said of the poll numbers. "Apparently, Carter's got the Democrats and no one else."
According to the poll, Carter had 69 percent of Democrats, just 4 percent of Republicans and 29 percent of independents. Ensign, on the other hand, enjoyed strong crossover support: 21 percent of Democrats, 93 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of independents.
Polls such as this one ought to discourage Carter because they decrease the chances he'll be seen as worthy of help from national Democratic sources of funding, Damore said. Ensign's seat has never been seen as particularly vulnerable by national pundits, and with each successive poll putting Carter at a big disadvantage, that perception solidifies, Damore said.
"This (the poll) is bad news for Carter. He's going to get no help from the national (Democratic) party. He's on his own," Damore said.
Carter, like many Democratic challengers across the country, has tried to frame the election as a choice between the Bush administration, personified by Ensign, and forces of change, represented by Carter. Most political analysts expect national sentiment to hurt incumbent Republicans and help Democratic challengers, but in Carter's case that won't be enough, Damore said.
"For the anti-Bush ripple to take effect, it has to be a competitive race to begin with," he said. "Ensign's just not vulnerable, and Carter's not a strong candidate."
LOL. Plus, the Carters are hell on Talibunnies....
"Carter's gotten his name recognition up, but..."
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