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Antarctic Snowfall Snafu Derails Climate Models
National Science Foundation ^ | 11 Aug 2006 | National Science Foundation

Posted on 08/11/2006 9:42:17 PM PDT by Marius3188

An improved method of measuring Antarctic snowfall has revealed that previous records showing an increase in precipitation are not accurate, even over a half-century. In the August 10 edition of Science magazine, researchers explain that their analysis of ice cores and snow pits revealed that precipitation levels in the Antarctic have in fact remained steady. The upshot of the study is that models assessing climate-change may need to be revised, as they can no longer be deemed accurate.

The multinational Antarctic team comprised 16 researchers who wanted to amass snowfall data going back 50 years to the International Geophysical Year (IGY). The data taken from the IGY is regarded as the first real study of the Antarctic, which has been ongoing ever since. This time around, however, the team found that their data contradicted computer models used to calculate global climate change, where most predict an increase in precipitation as atmospheric temperatures increase. "There were no statistically significant trends in snowfall accumulation over the past five decades, including recent years for which global mean temperatures have been warmest," said lead author Andrew Monaghan, a research associate with Ohio State University's Byrd Polar Research Center.

During the expedition, the team used data from ice core samples, networks of snow stakes and meteorological observations. Not satisfied with this data alone, the team also included ice core records from the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE), another multinational research program that began in 1990 in order to reconstruct the continent's climate history. The latest team's voracious accumulation of data coupled with a thorough analysis provides the most accurate study to-date of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and the thicker East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS).

Recent observations of the WAIS, a marine ice sheet with a base below sea level, show that vast quantities of ice are melting at a faster rate than previously recorded. Many observers consider this and an increase in calving icebergs along the Antarctic's margins to be evidence of global warming. The team's findings also counter climate-change skeptics who consider a thickening of Antarctica's enormous ice sheets has stemmed the gradual rise in global sea levels.

The new study shows that current climate-change models need to be revamped if scientists are to have a more accurate representation of Antarctic weather patterns. "The year-to-year and decadal variability of the snowfall is so large that it makes it nearly impossible to distinguish trends that might be related to climate change from even a 50-year record," said Monaghan.


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; Unclassified
KEYWORDS: antartic; climate; climatechange; godsgravesglyphs; precipitation; snowfall
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1 posted on 08/11/2006 9:42:19 PM PDT by Marius3188
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To: Marius3188

Al Gore's going to need to find a new line of work.


2 posted on 08/11/2006 9:43:28 PM PDT by My2Cents (A pirate's life for me.)
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To: My2Cents
Al Gore's going to need to find a new line of work.

Poor guy...how many times can a guy his age keep starting over??? Maybe he can go invent something....like "cell phones" or "the horseless carriage".

3 posted on 08/11/2006 9:47:39 PM PDT by txroadkill
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To: My2Cents
Al Gore's going to need to find a new line of work.

He will be okay. He and his audience run off of faith, not science. :)
4 posted on 08/11/2006 9:50:08 PM PDT by P-40 (Al Qaeda was working in Iraq. They were just undocumented.)
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To: txroadkill; My2Cents
"Poor guy...how many times can a guy his age keep starting over?"

Don't underestimate him. One important thing most people keep forgetting...when he first wrote his book the scientific community had proven their theories about Global "cooling".

5 posted on 08/11/2006 9:50:33 PM PDT by CWOJackson
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To: Marius3188
Do not fear. Unlike failed "Global Cooling" model from 20 years ago, the global warming model predicts anything that happens; increase, decrease or no change..
6 posted on 08/11/2006 9:52:13 PM PDT by fso301
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To: My2Cents
Al Gore's going to need to find a new line of work.

I doubt that. He will do what liberals always do with facts that are contrary to their opinion:

Ignore them or claim a political agenda.

7 posted on 08/11/2006 9:56:53 PM PDT by technomage (NEVER underestimate the depths to which liberals will stoop for power.)
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To: technomage

Or just plain lie...


8 posted on 08/11/2006 10:02:01 PM PDT by HeartlandOfAmerica (Middle East Interactive Map: http://interneticsonline.com.dish5009.net.ibizdns.com/MEMap.html)
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To: Marius3188
Well, hope these guys were close to retirement, because that's the last grant they will ever get.

-ccm

9 posted on 08/11/2006 10:04:13 PM PDT by ccmay (Too much Law; not enough Order)
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To: fso301
Do not fear. Unlike failed "Global Cooling" model from 20 years ago, the global warming model predicts anything that happens; increase, decrease or no change..

The Gorebots were sure quick to attribute last year's hurricane season to global warming. I wonder what they have to say now that we are about halfway through the season and there has still not been even one hurricane?

-ccm

10 posted on 08/11/2006 10:06:18 PM PDT by ccmay (Too much Law; not enough Order)
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To: Marius3188
Were doomed, again!


11 posted on 08/11/2006 10:08:24 PM PDT by operation clinton cleanup
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To: fso301

Your right. From Environment News: "Gore chose January 15, 2004, one of the coldest days in New York City’s history, to rail against the Bush administration and global warming skeptics for their insistence that science should guide public policy, rather than the other way around. Global warming, Gore told a startled audience, is causing record cold temperatures."


12 posted on 08/11/2006 10:10:15 PM PDT by Brad from Tennessee (Anything a politician gives you he has first stolen from you)
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To: ccmay
The Gorebots were sure quick to attribute last year's hurricane season to global warming. I wonder what they have to say now that we are about halfway through the season and there has still not been even one hurricane?

Yes, I seem to remember that Robert Kennedy Jr was out there within a day or two of Katrina hitting, going on about how global warming and Bush's refusal to sign the Kyoto treaty had caused Katrina. Just lies - Kennedy's most recent lie is to convince the American people that GWB has destroyed everyone's faith in the electoral process by stealing elections over and over with his backdoor into the Diebold machines. You know this is a warm up to the results coming from Nov 2006 when they loose big again!!

13 posted on 08/11/2006 10:11:54 PM PDT by AZConser
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To: My2Cents
No, he'll just have to find a new line.

Personally, I might try to announce my theory of Global Thermic Oscillation before they beat me to it.
14 posted on 08/11/2006 10:11:59 PM PDT by Sofa King (A wise man uses compromise as an alternative to defeat. A fool uses it as an alternative to victory.)
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To: txroadkill

Al Gore invented the iPod.


15 posted on 08/11/2006 10:14:13 PM PDT by Richard Kimball (The most important thing is sincerity. Once you can fake that, everything else is easy.)
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To: ccmay

"we are about halfway through the season and there has still not been even one hurricane?"

Not to defend them but don't the majority of the Hurricanes come in the end of the season. Warmer water and all that...


16 posted on 08/11/2006 10:15:56 PM PDT by JSteff
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To: Richard Kimball
"Al Gore invented the iPod."

No, but he did help write the compression standard for MP3s.
17 posted on 08/11/2006 10:17:42 PM PDT by Private_Sector_Does_It_Better (The UN did such a great job with Oil for Food in Iraq, let's let them run the whole country)
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To: Marius3188

"16 researchers who wanted to amass snowfall data going back 50 years to the International Geophysical Year (IGY)."

My physics prof recomended me to Cal Tech to go on that expedition but luckly I was edged out by a guy that was a ham operator.

Looking back 50 years i'm thankful that I took up racing and hot rodding instead of being a ham!


18 posted on 08/11/2006 10:19:06 PM PDT by dalereed
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To: Marius3188

I have always questioned why only the Arctic is used to support the lie of global warming and not the Antarctic. The reason why has now been aired. We can now await Al Gore's sequel. I imagine his title would be something like "Down Under, But Not Out".


19 posted on 08/11/2006 11:11:30 PM PDT by taxesareforever (Never forget Matt Maupin)
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To: AZConser

Robert Kennedy Jr is especially loathsome.


20 posted on 08/11/2006 11:12:40 PM PDT by Aetius
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