Victor Davis Hanson: Has Bush — or the World — Changed? About "Cowboy Diplomacy"

There is as much relief from realists as there is disappointment from neo-Wilsonians over a perceived change in U.S. foreign policy — what Time magazine clumsily dubbed “The End of Cowboy Diplomacy.” It is true that there is now a regrettable new quietism about promoting democracy in the Middle East. And the United States also insists on multiparty talks with the ghoulish regimes in North Korea and Iran, in a fashion that purportedly seems much different from the go-it-alone caricature of 2001/2.

But think hard: Has George Bush, or the world itself, changed in the last five years?

One obvious difference from the first administration is the added nuclear component to the most recent pressing crises. Taking out the Taliban and Saddam Hussein did not involve an immediate threat of nuclear retaliation. Preempting against North Korea does run such risk — and perhaps very soon Iran will too. That requires a different strategy.

The second change from the immediate past is oil. For most of the first administration, the price of petroleum was around $20-$30 a barrel. We are now well into the era of $60-$70, and the threat of constant shortages.

This energy frailty has had two pernicious effects on U.S. foreign policy. Our allies in Europe and Japan now view almost any American initiative with Russia, the Middle East, or Latin America in terms of the potential fallout on their own energy costs and supplies.

In addition, the consuming nations are now providing a windfall of several hundred billion in extra profits to the likes of the House of Saud, the Iranian theocrats, the Gulf Sheikdoms, Hugo Chavez, and Vladimir Putin. Not only are some of these billions recycled in nefarious ways in arms purchases and terrorist subsidies, but also the intrinsic failures of theocracy, autocracy, and neo-Communism are masked by such accidental largess.

Worse still, there is now a growing new relativist standard of international behavior for roguish regimes: The degree to which a non-democratic nation has either oil or nukes — or preferably both — determines its perceived legitimacy. Any individual action the United States now undertakes may spike oil prices, and thus endanger the livelihood of its allies or neutrals while further subsidizing our enemies.

A third difference is the fading memory of September 11 as we reach the fifth anniversary of that mass murder. As the anger of the American people subsides, weariness with the counter-response grows, and the very human desire not to rock the boat permeates national life — especially when we have not had, as predicted, another 9/11. It is hard to keep reminding the American people for five years that we alone must lead the world against the terrorists and their state sponsors.

So part of Mr. Bush’s dilemma derives also from his very success. The audacious removal of Saddam Hussein and the Taliban — coupled with the killing of thousands of Islamic terrorists abroad, together with a revolution in security procedures at home — have combined to prevent another jihadist attack. Now in our complacence, we think our recent safety was almost a natural occurrence rather than the result of national sacrifice and ordeal that must continue. And, again, such a return to normalcy makes the lonely task of prompting reform in the Middle East seem rather unnecessary, if not irrelevant.

Fourth, the rock has already been thrown into the Middle East pond, and the ripples are still on the water. One can argue about the effects of the Iraqi democracy on the larger Middle East — the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, the about-face in Libya, democratic peeps in the Gulf, or the end of the career of Dr. Khan — but the worst two governments are now gone, and the Middle East is in flux dealing with the detritus of these fallen regimes. Iraq is messy, but its chaos is no longer novel. And for all the violence, its democratic government just keeps chugging along, its enemies so far unable to derail it.

Fifth, the old lie that American bellicosity incited the Islamists has been shattered by a series of events that have had nothing to with Iraq. The French riots, the threats to Danish and Dutch artists, the plot to behead a Canadian prime minister, the Indian bombings, and on and on, have combined to educate the world. The violence reminds everyone that billions of Christians, Jews, Hindus, secularists, atheists, and modernists are hated for reasons that have almost nothing to do with U.S. efforts in Iraq. Therefore, allies are starting to renew their cooperation with us, realizing that their studied distance from America has brought them no reprieve. Moreover, the daily griping, victimization, scapegoating, and violence of the Islamic Arab world, whether directed against us in Iraq, or the Indians, Europeans, and Russians, for many has had the aggregate effect of tiring people, perhaps best characterized as a feeling like: “Forget them — they are hopeless and not worth another American soldier, dollar, or thought.”

All these considerations apparently allow — or sometimes force — the Bush administration to assume a supposedly less visible, more multilateral profile. There is one important caveat, however.

What progress we have made since 9/11 — thousands of terrorists killed, al Qaeda scattered, Europe galvanized about Islamism and sobered about the consequences of its cheap U.S. rhetoric, Iran’s nuclear antics revealed, democracy birthed in the Middle East, Palestinian radicals exposed for their fraud, the United Nations under overdue scrutiny, America much better defended at home — all that came as a result of an often unilateralist posture that risked global alienation by challenging the easy appeasement of the rest of the world. Nothing there to apologize for or change — but much accomplished to be proud of.

Of course, it is possible, and perhaps even understandable, to coast for a while and advisable to cool the rhetoric about bringing democratic change through “smoking out” and hunting down terrorists “dead or alive.” But we shouldn’t forget that the global village gets back to normal only after a Shane or Marshall Will Cane is willing to take on the outlaws alone and save those who can’t or won’t save themselves. So, remember, when, to everyone’s relief, such mavericks put down their six-shooters and ride off into the sunset, the killers often creep back into town.

I think we have to realize our own domestic failures in not implementing more policies to reduce our dependence on foreign petroleum.

IMO, Congress and the President could have and should have shown more leadership in this matter.

Actually it seems that conservatives and radical environmentalists might be able to make common cause on this matter, albeit for different reasons.

Regardless, the country ought to be able to come together and find ways of significantly reducing our dependence on foreign oil, quickly and radically. If we have the will, we can find a way.

It's truly amazing to me that increasing domestic production hasn't been on the front burner since September 12, 2001.

To me as well. Actually, it's been fairly obvious since at least 1973 that depending on foreign sources is a national security risk.

I think we also have to do more to encourage development of alternatives as well, however.

I'm not so sure that making common cause with radical environmentalists would be possible, given their rice bowls and irrationality.

They have been calling for less use of petroleum and greater use of alternatives, mostly because of global warming. They also oppose "blood for oil".

The reasoning may differ, but all sides should approve of finding alternatives and radically reducing our dependence on foreign oil.

What we need to see is more leadership and initiative at a national level.

The time is long overdue to go on the offensive against them.

The time is definitely overdue for a real initiative towards energy independence, rather than the current lip service.

Reporter on F&F this morning says that sentiment in Lebanon is with the Israelis, realizing that clearing out the Hezbollah from southern Lebanon has to be done.

Nuggets from Lebanese Bloggers
http://www.bigpharaoh.com/2006/07/14/nuggets-from-lebanese-bloggers/

Topics: Uncategorized
Below are comments I read posted by Lebanese bloggers.

Ramzi is asking Hizbollah's Nasrallah whether he is happy now:

You care not for this country nor it's citizens.
You are blind to the borders and the fate of this nation.
And you thrust me into the unknown and ask me to follow you?!

Wake up and smell the burning runways…

Doha comments on the speech by Israel's ambassador to the UN:

Today I heard one of the most historical addresses by the Israeli UN ambassador on Lebanon.

Just quickly: he quoted Marwan Hamadeh, Elias Atallah and another unnamed Minister saying yesterday that Lebanon has been taken hostage by regional forces (Iran and Syria) and by terror (form Hizbullah).

He looked the Lebanese UN representative in the eye and said: I would like to make an appeal to Lebanon's representative. You know deep down that if you could, you would add your brave voice to the voices of your brave compatriots in Lebanon. You could be sitting next to me now to negotiate a solution. If we succeed, it will be beneficial for all of us. Lebanon has an opportunity to be a free, prosperous democratic Lebanon.

The Lebanese representative claimed what the government statements have been saying: that the government did not know, is not responsible and does not endorse the attacks by Hizbullah on northern Israel. But also said that Israel is brutally attacking civilians and infrastructure in Lebanon and that the attacks do not equate in magnitude to what they claim they want to do, which is target Hizbullah's military base.

By the way, the Israeli ambassador said that Hizbullah is launching its rockets from civilian houses with children and women acting as hosts of such rockets.

This is truely a brutal way of operating by Hizbullah. I hate violence and death. Enough is enough; the Lebanese government needs to take a stand. My country is wounded.

Abu Kais saying Nasrallah has sacrificed the entire country for his lone cause:

Lebanon is being destroyed, I repeat, Lebanon is being destroyed.

Nasrallah has proven that he is no match for Israel. He will go down in history as the man who invited destruction to Lebanon, along with Yasser Arafat, thanks to the generous support of his allies, Syria and Iran, who, for allies, have so far done nothing to defend their holy partner.

At least two pundits this morning on LBC agreed that Israel has successfully changed the rules of the game, hinting that Nasrallah was wrong for thinking his rockets could establish a defensive “balance of terror.” In essence, Nasrallah has sacrificed the entire country for his lone cause, and for the eyes of Bashar and Ahmadinejad.

Jamal is angry at Israel:

So Olmert woke me up at 3 am, made my mom freak out, made my sister weep uncontrollably, made me take a cold shower with no water pressure this morning, and he expects me to support his effort to eradicate Hezbollah.

But let's talk about Peace.

I've noticed a high number of Israelis on Lebanese blogs these days claiming they want peace. They say we deserve what we are getting for supporting a violent group like Hezbollah.

Show me an Israeli politician with a fair peace plan, someone who's not a racist oppressive pig, and I'll be first in line to shake his hand.

Mustapha posts a letter his friend received from an Israeli friend:

Dear (name of Lebanese guy)
How are you?

I am writing to you because of what happened last night in Beirut. I feel very sorry for that and I really hope none of your relatives or friends were close to the airport or are located in the area where the problems happened. I know it is very delicate to talk about this, but since we are friends and ex-flatmates, I can’t but be concerned.

I won’t try to justify the attacks, but you probably know that Lebanon is not innocent from the problems in Israel.

I just want to tell you this: Whatever happened in the world, wars, terrorists attacks, etc, I will never consider you as my enemy, because we are friends and nothing is stronger than friendship and love. It is our strength not to be intimidated by these acts (acts that we can't understand because we aren’t informed properly) and continue being friends and talk about it.

Only the youth can change the world, so we need to continue raising our hands to defend our feelings and continue crying when innocent people are dying, whatever their religion, race or nationality. A human being is a human being.

I hope you understand my feelings.

In the name of my nation and religion, I am sorry for the innocent who died last night and for the ones who will die in the next days, months, years and centuries. Hope you feel the same when innocent Israelis die. Never forget, that all together, WE CAN CHANGE THE WORLD.

Peace, Salaam, Shalom,

Your brother,
(Name of Israeli Guy)

He also thinks Israel should go after Syria instead of Lebanon:

Many Lebanese are very surprised why Israel is leaving Syria alone. In fact, one of the most commonly held conspiracy theories in Lebanon is this one: Israel and Syria had this worked out together in a perverse deal to hurt Lebanon.
Nobody knows why, but unless Israel goes to the source, more people will believe in this particular conspiracy.

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