Posted on 04/06/2006 8:36:17 PM PDT by LdSentinal
TRENTON, N.J. - Republican Tom Kean Jr. can thank New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine's unpopular budget proposals for his slight edge over Democrat Robert Menendez in the 2006 U.S. Senate race, according to a poll released Thursday.
A Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll gives Kean Jr., a state senator, a 42-38 percent lead over Menendez, who was appointed by Corzine to serve out the remaining year of his U.S. Senate term.
Last month, Menendez led Kean by five points in a PublicMind poll, 42-37 percent.
Poll director Peter Woolley said that right now voters' preferences for the candidates are being driven by news events.
"Last month, Sen. Menendez got wide and positive exposure for his opposition to the Dubai Ports World taking over the facility in Newark," Woolley said. "This month, Tom Kean has the opportunity to respond to the governor's unpopular budget proposals affecting taxes and spending."
In a PublicMind poll released Tuesday, 36 percent of voters disapproved of Corzine's job performance, compared to 16 percent in a poll taken March 8.
The record $30.9 billion budget Corzine proposed on March 21 includes provisions for increasing and expanding the sales tax, raising taxes on cigarettes and liquor, cutting funding to higher education, and funding schools and towns at last year's levels, likely prompting local property tax hikes.
Democratic strategist Rick Thigpen said Thursday's poll suggests that Menendez is "being punished by certain segments of the electorate for the governor's proposed budget."
Republican strategist Mark Campbell said Corzine's budget, in which he broke several campaign promises, sent a message to voters that New Jersey Democrats don't keep their word.
"As property taxes in New Jersey are going up, Bob Menendez is going down," Campbell said.
The poll released Thursday also indicated that Kean Jr.'s name recognition has increased, up by 10 points to 72 percent, compared to 62 percent last month. Kean Jr. is the son of former Republican Gov. Thomas Kean.
Menendez's name recognition remained even at 63 percent.
The poll of 685 registered voters was conducted by telephone from March 27 to April 2 and has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
I wish that it was only 28% for Menendez, but it's 38%. Still, a lead is nice.
I don't think it's a very good time to be running with a name like Menendez right now, either.
Shame Salazar isn't up for re-election in Colorado.
SLIGHT EDGE? Kean 42 Menendez 28
It's a 4% advantage -- not a 14% advantage. My bad.
Well, so the liberal media's calling 42 to 28 percent a slight edge! Oh, okay, it's actually 42 to 38 percent. Yay!
What a disappointment! I wanted it to be 28%. ;)
Only 4, not 14. What a gyp. I was about to wake the wife up to tell her.
Oh great. Here comes Lincoln "Spineless Jellyfish" Chafee II.
Good news. How are we looking in MN, anyone know?
Senate amnesty should hurt Menendez too.
Amazing how things are looking brighter for Republicans for Governor seats and Senators in states like MD, NJ, PA, and AZ. All races the rats had hopes of taking. While the GOP is portrayed as fractured by the media the rats can't seem to capitalize on it. Which leads me to suspect the media funded polls that prove the GOP is fractured. In a short while the media will start polling registered voters instead of just adults. A few weeks from the election they'll start polling likely voters and it will become clear that we will pick up seats in the House and Senate.
again.
*ping*
My take is that at present the GOP has a good shot to take one Dem Senate seat, with Maryland, New Jersey and Minnesota in play, as an offset to GOP losses. Pennsylvania will go Dem, and probably Montana too, despite all the noise about illicit sex, etc., and Burns having a primary opponent. Montana isn't Utah or Idaho. Ohio bounces in and out of real trouble, depending on the poll you read. But I just can't quite see why Dewine will be bounced.
Yeah right.
I believe MN will be our best shot, especially since it has not been averse to electing Republicans to the Senate since 1978 (I believe had Rod Grams been able to match Dayton dollar for dollar, he might've been able to retain his seat back in 2000). NJ may be the second-most likely if Kean remains ostensibly competitive. It has not elected a Republican since 1972. MD may be the third-most in the bunch, last electing a Senate Republican in 1980 (though Mac Mathias was so leftist, as was Clifford Case, that they were de facto Democrats), but the question remains there which 'Rat gets the nod (probably Cardin), and the likely voter fraud the 'Rat legislature has given the thumbs-up to (as was voiced by Gov. Ehrlich).
I would've agreed with you on PA going 'Rat, but I think that Casey, Jr. is springing major-league leaks in his campaign and peaked months too soon. If the election were held now, Casey would win, but I think Santorum is starting to right his campaign. I think Burns will lose narrowly in MT even in the absence of REAL substantive proof of wrongdoing, I still wish he would step aside. I still believe MT is basically a GOP-leaning state that is overrepresented by Democrats (the legislature was deliberately gerrymandered by Democrats in control of the redistricting process to obtain a majority that is fraudulent).
DeWine will probably hold on in OH, but it's hard to overstate the damage the establishment GOP has done to the state and the genuine anger by the electorate there. It will be interesting to see if we manage to retain all the statewide offices as we have for, what, 12 years ?
Also, not mentioned is Michigan. I believe we're going to capture the governorship and may have a similarly strong Senate candidate (which unfortunately won't be Rev. Keith Butler, who truly got shafted by Liddy Dole). The horrid Stabenow is going to rue the day she stood next to a sign reading "Dangerously Incompetent."
I'm not touching FL with a 10-foot pole, lest certain individuals flip out, but you and I are on the same page where that contest is concerned.
DeWine only won this seat with 53.4% in the GOP tsunami election of 1994 as the sitting Lt. Gov. against a 2nd tier opponent. In his 2000 reelection he only took 60.1% against a real estate broker.. There is a general consensus that Ohio has shifted toward the Dems since 2000, and even more so since the 1994 midterms.
Furthermore, the scandal-wracked Ohio GOP has plunged to its lowest approval ratings in recent memory. This implies an in-state Dem wave on top of a likely national Dem wave. Wave elections generally happen primarily when the losing party's voters stay home. There is much to suggest that will be the case amongst Republicans in Ohio in November.
And therefore, coming around full circle to the above, it is quite likely that GOP turnout need be depressed merely 3.5% - a modest dip that would actually be little more than removing the uptick of the past two elections, and this actually by comparison to the even more powerful GOP showing of 1994 - in order for DeWine to lose. All else being equal.
Do you see it now?
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
That should say, GOP turnout need be depressed merely enough to shave about 3.5% off the GOP percentage of the electorate.
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