Posted on 01/13/2006 6:50:55 AM PST by Willie Green
For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use.
The Labor Department reported the economy added 108,000 payroll jobs in December. The consensus forecast was 207,000, and my forecast, published by Reuters was 180,000.
Unemployment fell to 4.9 percent, mainly because fewer adults chose to participate in the labor force.
In the fourth quarter, 438,000 jobs were added, and this is consistent with GDP growth in the range of 3.0 to 3.5 percent
Economic growth appears to be moderating from the red hot numbers posted in the third quarter, and if the Fed does not push interest rates too much higher, the economy will grow at a 3.5 percent pace the first half of 2006.
Wage increases were moderate, despite fears that labor markets are too tight.
Wages were up 0.3 percent. Wages are advancing less rapidly that productivity, indicating that a tightening labor market poses little threat of igniting inflation.
In light of recent productivity gains, this moderate wage growth should dispel any notions the Fed may hold that labor markets and spiraling wages could reignite inflation.
In 2005 wages grew 3.1 percent, while inflation exceeded 3.5 percent.
It was a year of big bonuses and hefty raises for highly skilled professionals and executives but slim pickings for the ordinary working Joe.
Such tepid wage growth is particularly disappointing given the strong productivity advances posted by the private business sector over the last year.
Moderate wage growth and strong productivity growth should soon convince the Fed to end its cycle of interest rate increases soon. The Fed will increase the federal funds rate to 4.5 percent on January 31 but increases beyond 4.5 percent are less likely.
Manufacturing employment increased 18,000; however, employment in that sector has been unchanged since June and down 51,000 since last December.
Inexpensive imports, especially from China, are holding down employment in manufacturing and some service activities, clamping down on wages even as the economy grows.
The continuing competitive woes of General Motors and Ford compound the damage inflicted by the trade deficit.
Together, the trade deficit and troubles of U.S. automakers cast a long shadow over the job market.Overall, the manufacturing sector has shed three million jobs since 2000, and by this point in the recovery, two million of those jobs should have been recovered.
Paradoxically, an overvalued dollar plays a key role in slow wage growth and the inverted yield curve, which has recently captured the headlines.
To keep their currencies cheap against the dollar, China and other foreign governments buy billions of dollars of U.S. government securities. Foreign government purchases of U.S. securities drive down long-term interest rates, and these make possible inexpensive mortgages and home equity loans. However, those foreign government purchases of U.S. securities also subsidize U.S. imports and stifle the growth of jobs offering good pay and benefits.
What is America's total assets?
Please sheck out the site before you hit the reply button. Detailed graphs and statistics are posted on it answering most of your questions. Household net worth is $ 51 billion? Does that assume real estate values stay at inflated values? U.S. saving rate is negative. Does net worth include the value of automobiles? Used or new? Made in the U.S. or Japan or Germany? What happens when real estate falls an average of 20% nationally? 30%? 38%? 40%? Household net worth in reality may be only $ 35 trillion. Wow! Can you multiply negative numbers?
I perhaps should have phrased the question about capacity in manafacturing to focus on metals, machine tools, along with fabrication plus the skilled pool of labor necessary for these trades.
High tech has not completely replaced boots on the ground in the waging of war. Tangible weapons such as tanks and guns are still needed for our defense. While I do not doubt America's current ability to retool for war manafacturing, I fear if the decline is real and continues, the US may face economic sanctions by other
nations that will prevent us effectively using military
options when needed.
The better question may be this: will the Globalization of the American economy lead to the loss of American sovereignty?
I checked out the site. The word asset isn't there.
U.S. saving rate is negative.
The savings rate doesn't include IRA or 401k contributions. It doesn't include capital gains. It does subtract capital gain tax payments. Seem a bit incomplete to say the least.
Does net worth include the value of automobiles? Used or new? Made in the U.S. or Japan or Germany?
Yes, part of consumer durable goods. Page 110 of 124
What happens when real estate falls an average of 20% nationally? 30%? 38%? 40%?
Please ping me when that happens. LOL!!
Household net worth in reality may be only $ 35 trillion.
Reality? That's funny considering the sites you link to. I'm still waiting for your answer. What are America's total assets?
Perhaps you have a source that shows our capacity in these areas has decreased?
The better question may be this: will the Globalization of the American economy lead to the loss of American sovereignty?
No.
You're arguing with a guy who has oversized shoes, pancake makeup and a big red nose.
I believe that housing is 38% to 45% over-valued in Oregon. Real estate is more over-valued in California. My reasoning is based on personal experience investing in real estate. The real estate bubble already burst in Boston < $ 100,000 per house or about < 20%. We will see who is right and who is wrong in the next six months. A blow up is quite likely on the West Coast. As for myself, I plan to move out of state in 2007. Cheap foreclosures are just around the corner. America's total assets? That depends. Everything is still up in the air. Floating like pigs with wings.
Well there you have it. Mentioning our debts without mentioning our corresponding assets is meaningless. And I suspect that a lot of the scary business debt that silly website is referring to is based on swaps and counting 100% of a swap as a debt that needs to be repaid is as silly as the rest of your real estate predictions.
Then when asked for assets, he only counts personal/individual net worth, excluding government and business.
No matter how well things are going in the economy, Chicken Little is going to keep screaming "The sky is falling! The sky is falling!"
It's worse than that, he provided no asset numbers. And why exactly is corporate debt a problem for the average citizen? I guess I could post articles which prove corporations hold record levels of cash, but he'd find some reason to ignore that too.
Good question. Another good question is how is that debt structured? If they are saying our debt is $40 trillion, does that mean the total cost of the loan, including interest, over the life of the loan? What exactly makes up that number?
Interesting observation.
The National Debt has increased faster than household net worth.
Ballpark figures: National Debt +30%, household net worth only 25%.
Thanks for pointing that out.
It clearly shows how Dubya's policies are slowly dragging us down.
So National debt up $2 trillion, household net worth up $10.4 trillion. Yeah, we're doomed. LOL!!
If each $2 trillion increase in debt gives us 5 times that in net worth, I'd think even the mathematically challenged could get behind it. What do you say?
"Now a pink slip, a bad diagnosis, or a disappearing spouse can reduce a family from solidly middle class to newly poor in a few months."
http://www.harvard-magazine.com/on-line/010682.html
"America’s once mighty job machine is struggling as never before. The combination of subpar job creation and real wage stagnation puts extraordinary pressure on the income-generating capacity of the world’s most aggressive consumer.
"Of course, you’d never know that from the spin that followed the release of the latest monthly labor market surveys . . . . "
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060109-mon.html#anchor0
Ahhh the doom an gloom articles that seem to defy observation or all the other articles counter to them.
Never post anything in this forum from Harvard Magazine, please...it screams hit piece on the administraion.
Yep, the sky is falling...SKWAAAAAAAAK....the sky is falling!!!!!!
Hey buddy, can you spare a dime?
Geeeeshhhh...to think some of these folks are posting in a conservative, facts oriented forum, what's up wit dat?
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