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Green shoots are bursting out. Or so we are told. But before concluding that the recession will soon be over, we must ask what history tells us. It is one of the guides we have to our present predicament. Fortunately, we do have the data. Unfortunately, the story they tell is an unhappy one. EDITOR’S CHOICE Tight rules helped mitigate crisis in Brazil - Jun-16 Economists’ forum - Oct-01 Opinion: The three steps to financial reform - Jun-16 In depth: Global financial crisis - Sep-04 Economics: How the world economy might recover its poise - Jun-15 Two economic historians, Barry...

So far, the collapse of the world economy since mid-2008 has been worse than it was in the Great Depression. In fact, one glance at the fall world output, trade, and stock prices really puts the "green shoots" in perspective. The government policy response to the collapse, however, has been much more aggressive. Thus, we will soon collectively learn whether the economic historians are right that the original Great Depression was caused by "policy errors" after the collapse...or whether, as some suspect, there is simply no way to avoid catastrophe after a financial bubble the size of the one we...

<p>If you look hard enough, you can find some green shoots, but here's the truth. The decline in world industrial output is tracking very close with what we saw during the Depression. This chart was put together by economists Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O'Rourke, as part of a broader study comparing this downturn with the Great Depression. The good news, they say: The policy response has been much better this time around.</p>

The Grapes of Wrath, published exactly 70 years ago, can be seen as a prophetic novel - rooted in the tragedies of the Great Depression, but speaking directly to the harsh realities of 2009, writes Steinbeck scholar Robert DeMott. Steinbeck's epic novel, which traces the harrowing exodus of Tom Joad and his family from blighted Oklahoma (where they are evicted from their farm), across the rugged American south-west via Highway 66, and on to what they mistakenly hope will be a more promising future in California, is considered by many readers to be the quintessential Depression-era story, and an ironic...

RGE Monitor MEDIA ALERT: Nouriel Roubini predicts the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the worst U.S. Recession in the last few decades. New York, July 15, 2008- In a series of recent writings on the RGE Monitor Nouriel Roubini - Chairman of RGE Monitor and Professor of Economics at the NYU Stern School of Business - has argued that the U.S. is experiencing its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and will undergo its worst recession in the last few decades. His analysis leads to the following conclusions: This is by far the worst financial crisis...

So much for that second-half rebound. Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal. It ain't gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter. This thing's going down, fast and hard. Corporate bankruptcies, bond defaults, bank failures, hedge fund meltdowns and 6 percent unemployment. We're caught in one of those vicious, downward spirals that, once it gets going, is very hard to pull out of. Only this will be a different kind of recession --...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Sales of existing homes fell to a record low in October, according to the latest reading on the battered housing market by an industry trade group released Wednesday, as even the largest drop in home prices ever wasn't enough to revive moribund sales. The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of homes by homeowners fell to an annual pace of 4.97 million in October, down from the revised 5.03 reading in September, which was the previous record low since the trade group started tracking sales on that basis in 1999. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had...

Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week as rates on some adjustable loans soared to their highest levels in more than two months, according to data from an industry group Wednesday. RELATED LINKS Comments Lift Sentiment Stocks Open Higher Durable Goods Orders Fall for Third Straight Month Mortgage Applications Fall as Rates Soar The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity declined 4.3 percent to 652.5 in the week ended Nov. 23. Rates on one-year adjustable-rate mortgages that include many jumbo loans climbed 26 basis points to 6.24 percent, the highest since the height...

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumers, battered by a steep downturn in housing and a severe credit crunch, slowed spending growth in September to the weakest performance in three months. The Commerce Department reported Thursday that consumer spending rose by 0.3 percent in September, slightly lower than the 0.4 percent increase that analysts had been expecting. Incomes grew by 0.4 percent, matching the August gain, and in line with analysts' forecasts. Video More video The latest in business news with the CNN.com business bulletin. Play video Economists are worried that consumers, the main support for the economy, may cut back on their...

<p>BOSTON (CNNMoney.com) -- For those in the real estate industry and for those looking to buy or sell a home, it could take until 2009 to catch a break.</p> <p>That's the forecast from Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), who will present his outlook to an auditorium full of real estate professionals on Wednesday morning.</p>

<p>NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Builders continued to slam the brakes on new homes in September, as the government's latest reading on the battered market out Wednesday showed housing starts and permits were weaker than expected at levels not seen for more than a decade.</p>

<p>NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The meltdown in the mortgage market in August dried up the supply of buyers for homeowners looking to sell their homes, as an industry group report showed the lowest level of homes under contract on record.</p>

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The bullhorn message from the government to mortgage lenders has been: Bend. Do what you can to help struggling homeowners. The message to troubled homeowners has been: Call your lender. You may be able to work something out. Despite the persistent blare, there is not a whole lotta "loan modifying" going on yet. A survey by Moody's found that most loan servicers this year had modified only about 1 percent of their adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) that had reset to higher rates by the end of July. At the Consumer Credit Counseling Service (CCCS) of San Francisco,...

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Demand for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in August by the largest amount in seven months, with widespread weakness signaling a slowdown in the nation's industrial sector. The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that orders for durable goods, everything from commercial jetliners to home appliances, fell by 4.9 percent in August, the biggest decline since a 6.1 percent fall in January. It was far larger than the 3.5 percent drop that economists had been expecting and resulted from across-the-board decreases in a number of categories. The concern is that the steep downturn in housing and turbulence in financial markets...

NEW YORK - U.S. home prices fell 3.2 percent in the second quarter, the steepest rate of decline since Standard & Poor's began its nationwide housing index in 1987, the group said Tuesday. The decline in home prices around the nation shows no evidence of a market recovery anytime soon. MacroMarkets LLC Chief Economist Robert Shiller said the declining residential real estate market "shows no signs of slowing down." The index tracks the price trends among existing single-family homes across the nation compared with a year earlier .

<p>NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The binge that many housing markets went on in the early- to mid-2000s is over, and some of the hottest markets like California are now experiencing the worst hangovers.</p> <p>But other areas, especially many that recorded slower home price growth earlier this decade, have seen little increase in foreclosure rates, according to the latest data released Tuesday from RealtyTrac, the online marketer of foreclosure properties.</p>

<p>NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- American consumers are defaulting on their credit cards at a sharply higher rate compared to last year, in what could be another consequence of the recent subprime mortgage market crisis, according to a report published Tuesday.</p>

<p>Waiting to see big banks piling into the mortgage business a la Bank of America (BAC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating)? Don't hold your breath.</p> <p>BofA surprised Wall Street last week by making a $2 billion bet on struggling Countrywide (CFC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating). The news, announced after the close last Wednesday, gave Countrywide's sinking stock a one-day reprieve.</p>

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Former US Treasury secretary Larry Summers said Sunday it was too early to declare the financial markets crisis over and said chances had risen sharply of an economic downturn in the United States. ADVERTISEMENT Despite interventions by the US Federal Reserve last week which appeared to reverse heavy selling pressure over the collapsing US housing debt market, Summers said the risk of recession was its highest since the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks. "We certainly saw some repair and some return to normality this week, but I think it would be far premature to...

<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Countrywide Financial Corp Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo said on Thursday the U.S. housing downturn is likely to lead the country into recession, but that the largest U.S. mortgage lender will survive.</p> <p>In an interview, Mozilo also said that to promote liquidity, the U.S. Federal Reserve should cut the rate it charges banks to borrow.</p>

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- In a clear sign that the credit crunch is still affecting the nation's largest financial institutions, the Federal Reserve agreed this week to bend key banking regulations to help out Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (Charts, Fortune 500), according to documents posted Friday on the Fed's web site. The Aug. 20 letters from the Fed to Citigroup and Bank of America state that the Fed, which regulates large parts of the U.S. financial system, has agreed to exempt both banks from rules that effectively limit the amount of lending that their federally-insured banks...

<p>The last politician who took advice from the bond market was Bill Clinton. When he pushed for a tax hike back in 1993 to cut the budget deficit, it was under the assumption that bond investors would respond by bringing down interest rates. (The theory here is that deficits are inflationary. Inflation is bad for bonds.) Yet long-term interest rates surged from 6.45 percent when Clinton signed his tax-hike bill on Aug. 10, 1993, to 8.16 percent on Nov. 7, 1994, the day before the midterm congressional election where Republicans won back the House and Senate.</p>

NEW YORK - Bad credit has supplanted terrorism as the gravest immediate risk threatening the economy, a key national research group reported Monday. Borrowers' withering ability to pay their bills and the subsequent fallout in the credit markets this summer topped the list of short-term risks on peoples' minds, according to a survey of 258 members conducted by the National Association of Business Economics. NABE, a Washington-based association, said 32 percent of its surveyed members cited loan defaults and excessive debt as their biggest near-term concern. Only 20 percent of members cited defense and terrorism as their biggest immediate worry,...

Subprime-battered mortgage lenders are shutting down, fewer homes are being built, and even some of the big U.S. retailers are planning conservatively for Christmas holiday sales. It will take a few months to show up in the economic data that Wall Street and the Federal Reserve watch, but the slowing U.S. economy is hitting the job market, and economists say it is only a matter of time before unemployment ticks up. "Growth is skimming along at around 2 percent, and that is not strong enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising," said Brian Bethune, U.S. economist with Global Insight...

Until a few months ago, it seemed that anyone who could fog up a mirror could get a mortgage. Now, with a credit crisis roiling the industry, some consumers might think they have a better chance winning the lottery than finding a home loan. The truth is that you can still get a mortgage. It just may not be as easy--or as cheap--as it was over the past few years. "If you have good credit, can document your income and have money for a downpayment, it’s largely business as usual," says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. Borrowers seeking...

Countrywide CEO: Mortgage Crisis Persists Despite BofA Stake Topics:Subprime Lending | Mergers & Acquisitions | Banking | Mortgages Companies:Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc | Countrywide Financial Corp | Bank of America CorpBy CNBC.com | 23 Aug 2007 | 01:31 PM ET Font size: The chief executive of Countrywide Financial told CNBC that Bank of America's $2 billion investment in the struggling mortgage lender was a "priceless endorsement" for Countrywide but said the crisis in the housing and mortgage markets isn't getting any better. "It's a great endorsement of Countrywide," CEO Angelo Mozilo told Maria Bartiromo in an exclusive interview. "It's important...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Bond remained higher Friday despite a surprisingly strong durables goods reading as credit worries continued to trouble investors. The dollar fell against the euro and the yen. Video More video Luke Newman joins CNN to explain how a private investor can build a balanced portfolio in uncertain times. Play video The 10-year benchmark note gained 8/32, or $2.50 on a $1,000 note, to yield 4.62 percent, down from 4.64 late Thursday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. Bernanke: The un-Greenspan The closely watched three-month Treasury bills, which have been the focus of the market...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Jennifer Falke and her family had been in their Columbus, Ohio home for nearly 12 years when they hit a rough patch in 2006. Falke was out of work and fell behind on the mortgage. Falke said a flood of mailings and flyers then arrived at her door promising help from foreclosure rescue companies claiming to act as an intermediary between her and her lender to keep her from losing her home. According to Falke, the company she contacted, Foreclosure Assistance Solutions (FAS), simply took her money and did nothing for her. And by delaying a...

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The chairman of the Senate Banking Committee is urging the Bush administration to push through changes in a federal housing program that he says could help save troubled borrowers from foreclosure on their homes. In a letter to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Alphonso Jackson, Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., said the U.S. is experiencing record foreclosures and that it's "essential" that the Federal Housing Administration act to preserve homeownership for as many Americans as possible. The administration is studying the idea of allowing the agency to refinance troubled loans, something it's not...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Ford CEO Alan Mulally became the latest high-profile business executive to suggest that the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates, according to a report published Friday. Noting that credit conditions were posing a "big headwind" to the company's turnaround plan, Mulally told the Financial Times he is concerned about the state of the larger economy. Next victim of mortgage mess: Auto sales Video More video Fortune's Sue Callaway reviews and compares the Audi S4 and the BMW M5. Play video "It is a really important job to manage inflation and economic growth [but] focusing on...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Countrywide Financial, the nation's biggest home lender and one of those most affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, found itself the target of stinging criticism Thursday from an organization trying to help homeowners in peril. The Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America said Countrywide (Charts, Fortune 500) was not doing enough to help people who took out subprime adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) over the past few years and now may lose their homes. Subprime loans are issued to borrowers with poor credit histories who often lack the funds to make large down payments. Justin Urquhart Stewart of Seven...

As the carcasses of subprime mortgage-backed securities lie rotting on Wall Street, the buzzards are circling heretofore untouchable prey: the rating agencies. Critics say the ratings industry was too late in downgrading mortgage-backed securities, echoing cries after past crises involving Enron, WorldCom and Russian debt, among others. But the current episode comes with a different twist: Rather than merely third-party observers, some sources say Moody's (MCO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Standard & Poor's and their smaller rival Fitch Ratings played active roles in structuring MBS and related securities. Therefore, they could be deemed underwriters and exposed to...

Remember when Wall Street would obsess over the next leveraged buyout candidate, and hedge fund masters of the universe could raise ungodly war chests with just a handful of phone calls? What a difference a few months make. Lately, hedge fund implosions have replaced the LBO parade as the market's signature event. Investors have seen huge setbacks at funds run by Bear Stearns (BSC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), UBS (UBS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Goldman Sachs (GS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), among others, as the credit environment has grown fraught...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Fallout from the mortgage mess and lower home prices may have started to creep into the credit card arena, judging from July payments and some initial moves by issuers to tighten the screws on cardholders. After falling for three consecutive months, delinquent payments on credit cards -- defined as more than 30 days late - increased slightly in July, to 4.64 percent from 4.62 percent in June, according to CardWeb.com. A year ago, the delinquency rate was 4.18 percent. The amount of credit card debt consumers are paying off, meanwhile, has fallen. The portion of outstanding...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In another sign of how dire the subprime mess has become, mortgage lenders shed about 18,000 jobs this month, according to one estimate. But while the crisis has been largely contained to mortgage lenders and financial services firms, some economists see subprime-related labor trouble spreading to other parts of the economy in the months ahead. The number of casualties has already been significant. The collapse of New York-based American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. earlier this month resulted in the loss of nearly 7,000 jobs. On Wednesday, Accredited Home Lenders (up $0.14 to $6.24, Charts) said it...

CHARLOTTE, N.C - At the North Carolina offices of mortgage lender HomeBanc Corp., Archie Clark is the only employee left. But in a few days, he’ll be gone, too. “It’s pretty much a ghost town over there,” Clark said. “Somebody went in and took the furniture from the lobby. I don’t know who did that. I put some of the other stuff in the back and locked it up.” When Clark finishes helping movers from the company’s Atlanta headquarters collect computers and other property, he’ll join the more than 25,000 workers nationwide who have lost jobs in the financial services...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Tens of thousands of frightened homeowners looking to get out from under the crumbling walls of the subprime mortgage collapse have found refuge in a variety of programs. When Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd mentioned the national Homeowner's HOPE Hotline in comments Tuesday, it triggered some 3,000 calls. An announcement in April that the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America would be offering $1 billion in rescue money to beleaguered borrowers has prompted more than 50,000 inquiries, according to the organization. And in Ohio, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland and other states, distressed mortgage holders are clamoring...

Fretting about bonus money is Wall Street's latest fixation, but investment bankers may soon have more pressing worries. September could bring a wave of layoffs as big banks aim to bounce back from the summer's credit market swoon. Mass firings now could help brokerage firms cut costs and show investors they're taking decisive action to compete better in a tough market. It also may have dawned on banking honchos that cutting staff will help preserve whatever's left of their dwindling bonus pools. "I think [bank execs] are thinking, if I cut right now maybe I save some of this bonus,"...

The New York investment bank will cut 1,200 positions in 23 locations as a result of the closing of BNC Mortgage. It will take an after-tax charge of $25 million and a goodwill write-down of $27 million, it said. Lehman said that poor market conditions in the mortgage space of late have "necessitated a substantial reduction in its resources and capacity in the subprime space," according to a release. The company said earlier this summer that it was combining its two non-prime residential mortgage businesses - Aurora Loan Services of Littleton, Colo., which specializes in Alt-A mortgages, and BNC Mortgage...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Investors who are counting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sometime in the next month or so may end up badly disappointed. The credit crunch of the last month has convinced many on Wall Street that a cut in the central bank's key short-term interest rate is basically a lock. Stocks jumped Friday after the Fed announced a surprise cut in the little used discount rate that the central bank charges on loans made directly to banks - and again on Tuesday on bets the Fed will cut its other key rate, the fed...

H&R Block Inc.'s (HRB:H&R Block, Inc News, chart, profile, more Last: 19.79+0.59+3.07% 9:15am 08/22/2007 Delayed quote dataAdd to portfolio Analyst Create alertInsider Discuss Financials Sponsored by: HRB19.79, +0.59, +3.1%) Block Financial Corp. unit withdrew a net of $650 million from its working capital lines of credit to cover capital needs during the credit crunch. The Kansas City, Mo., company said it withdrew $200 million on Aug. 16 and an added $850 million on Aug. 20, using the money to pay off the previous loan. The company said in recent weeks "the credit market has become increasingly constrained and unstable," cutting...

WASHINGTON - Plummeting stock prices. Mortgage lenders filing for bankruptcy or shutting down. Layoffs at homebuilders and banks. Soaring foreclosures and loan defaults. Damage from the nation's slumping housing market is evident throughout the economy and permeates financial markets. Add real estate agents to the growing list of victims, although they know few tears will be shed for them. The National Association of Realtors expects membership rolls to decline this year for the first time in a decade. The group ended 2006 with nearly 1.4 million members — almost double the roughly 716,000 it had in 1997 — but expects...

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Already-battered U.S. auto sales could be the next victim of the problems with mortgages, declining home and stock prices as potential car buyers delay purchases due to uncertainty. Industrywide U.S. auto sales in August could be off 10 percent from a year ago, according to an early read from sales tracker Edmunds.com. That follows July sales that were 19 percent below year-earlier levels. Video More video Justin Urquhart Stewart of Seven Investment Management joins CNN to talk about mortgages and the markets. Play video Video More video CNN's Gerri Willis offers tips for weathering the mortgage...

Countrywide Financial (CFC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) isn't the only big bank threatened by the deepening real estate crisis. An analysis of the largest 20 banks and thrifts by TheStreet.com Ratings shows that four institutions are under-reserved for possible credit losses, a red flag as the economy slows and mortgage defaults rise. Perhaps more troubling, the numbers show that one of those institutions -- Washington Mutual (WM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) -- could join Countrywide in facing serious liquidity problems as worries about the housing and mortgage markets multiply. Meanwhile, another big lender, National...

As markets went on a rollercoaster ride last week, our economy is coming close to a day of reckoning for loose credit policies being followed by the Federal Reserve Bank. Simply, foreign banks we have been relying on to buy our debt are waking up to the reality of much higher default rates than predicted, and many mortgage backed securities have been reduced to “junk” ratings. Wall Street fears the possibility of tightening credit and the tightening of America’s belts. Why, they say, “if Americans spend only what they can afford, think of the ripple effects throughout the economy!” This...

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- A prolonged U.S. housing slump is causing a surge in the number of job losses announced by U.S. financial services companies, consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said Tuesday. The financial industry has announced 87,962 job cuts so far this year, 75 percent more than the total of 50,327 in all of 2006. Of this year's cuts, 41 percent related to troubles in the mortgage market, including riskier subprime mortgages, Challenger said. In August alone, there have been 20,957 announced job cuts, including 11,040 since Friday, Challenger said. Since Friday, Bear Stearns Cos Inc. (up...

Two years ago, my wife and I sat at a long conference table in a mortgage-title office in Bethesda. Sitting next to us: our real estate agent, who drew up our bid on a townhouse in Germantown two days after showing it to us. We didn't get an inspection, and I don't recall going back for a second look. We had to act fast or someone else would get it. Our bid won the house -- our very own first home -- and now we had to close the deal. The owners sat across the table. They seemed more nervous...

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Capital One's shuttered GreenPoint Mortgage is the latest mortgage banking explosion to bump Wall Street's panic meter up a notch, and industry insiders say it is just another indicator that retail banks will be stung by the credit mess they helped create. "Banks are not going to want to be in the mortgage business after all this is over," says Richard Wilkes, a mortgage industry veteran who ran First Nationwide Mortgage before it became a part of Citigroup. More from FORTUNE The Bear truth Where were the cops? Subprime on the Rhine FORTUNE 500 Current Issue...

(Fortune Magazine) -- What could the collapse in the subprime mortgage market possibly have to do with whether Dr. Jeffrey and Madeline Stier get full price for their four-bedroom house in the wealthy New York City suburb of Larchmont? Not much, you would think. After all, the people who live in Larchmont tend to be lawyers, doctors, and Wall Streeters. Generally speaking, they aren't the credit-challenged borrowers who must resort to subprime mortgages to finance their homes. Reduced: The asking price for this house in affluent Larchmont, N.Y., was recently reduced from $2.5 million to $1.99 million. More from FORTUNE...

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- Job cuts have begun at Bear Stearns and that could mark the start of a broader wave of layoffs across Wall Street as firms survey the damage caused by the recent downturn in financial markets. Some 240 employees at a Bear Stearns lending unit were laid off Wednesday, according to a company spokesperson. Video More video Carlos Slim: World's Richest Man Play video The pink slips come a little more than a month after two of the firm's hedge funds blew up, ultimately costing Bear Stearns co-president Warren Spector his job. The meltdown in financial markets is...