AP Poll Biased: Anti-Bush, Anti-Republican [left-wing media stay busy]

NewsBusters ^ | January 7, 2006 | John Armor

[charrisGOP]

Today (Saturday) there are stories in numerous papers based on an AP-Ipsos poll just released. Typical of the lot is an article in the New York Post, whose lede and third paragraphs are here:

Dissatisfied with the nation's direction, Americans are leaning toward wanting a change in which political party leads Congress - preferring that Democrats take control, an AP-Ipsos poll found. Democrats are favored over Republicans 49 percent to 36 percent.

President Bush's job approval remains low - 40 percent in the AP-Ipsos poll, with only one-third saying the country is headed in the right direction. Bush also remains low on his handling of Iraq, where violence against Iraqis and U.S. troops has been surging.

This and other results in this poll would be bad to very bad news for the Bush Administration, if the poll were statistically accurate. It is not. The poll is stacked in most of its demographics to favor pro-Democrat results.

Source: http://breakingnews.nypost.com/dynamic/stories/P/POLITICS_AP_POLL?SITE=NYNYP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2006-01-07-02-06-45

Another AP story drawn from the same poll and published on the Internet, had this lede and third paragraph:

A majority of Americans want the Bush administration to get court approval before eavesdropping on people inside the United States, even if those calls might involve suspected terrorists, an AP-Ipsos poll shows.

Yet 56 percent of respondents in an AP-Ipsos poll said the government should be required to first get a court warrant to eavesdrop on the overseas calls and e-mails of U.S. citizens when those communications are believed to be tied to terrorism.

Source: http://apnews.excite.com/article/20060107/D8F02GJO6.html

AnkleBitingPundits did the heavy lifting to examine the inputs for this AP-Ipsos poll. Only 81% of respondents were eligible to vote, with no indication whether even those were registered and did vote in the last election. Respondents were 52-40 percent Democrats over Republicans, even though in the last election the split was 37 each (the rest being unaffiliated or third party).

Every single one of the following crosstabs from the poll are wrong, and in every instance the error favors the Democrat responses. Each is compared to actual voters in 2004. Religion: 19% said they had “none,” versus 10% in 2004. Age: 31% were 18-34, versus 17% for 18-29 (closest available data). Income: 15% under $15,000, versus 8%.

Marriage: 56% married, versus 63%. Geography: 17% rural, versus 25%. Race: 71% white and 12% Hispanic, versus 77% and 8%. (Remainder were black, and other.)

Source: http://www.anklebitingpundits.com/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=2916&mode=nested&order=1&thold=0

A first-year student in statistics would be flunked for turning in poll results as obviously bad as this AP-Ipsos poll. Yet thousands of articles will appear in all media, across the nation and the world in the next few days, based on this poll.

At the very least, the AP should withdraw the poll and apologize for it. At worst, those who purchase the “news” services of AP should demand their money back.

John_Armor@aya.yale.edu

[charrisGOP]

I'm shocked ... shocked, I tell you < /sarcasm mode off>

[NormsRevenge]

thanks ap/ipsos or should I say

bogus polls 'R us

[saganite]

ping

[Names Ash Housewares]

There should be an effing law just like side effects in drug commericals to report the damn internals of political polls. Yeah I think oversampling democrats by 12% might just make a teeny weeny difference in the results.

[Petronski]

[Nathan Zachary]

What we have here is the left thinking out loud, publishing their wishful thinking.

When they say "the American people" they really mean that little group who post at a web site called DU.

It's comforting to see the circulation and stock value numbers dropping through the floor at The New Duranty Times

[ncountylee]

To maximize the damage AP wrote an article that will be carried by hundreds of papers:

Poll: Most Want Court OK for Gov't Taps

By KATHERINE SHRADER Associated Press Writer Posted January 8 2006, 3:28 AM EST

WASHINGTON -- A majority of Americans want the Bush administration to get court approval before eavesdropping on people inside the United States, even if those calls might involve suspected terrorists, an AP-Ipsos poll shows.

[Sam Hill]

AP Rigs Poll To Show Republicans Are Doomed | Sweetness & Light
http://www.sweetness-light.com/archive/ap-rigs-poll-to-show-republicans-are-doomed/

AP Milks Rigged Poll For A Second Story | Sweetness & Light
http://www.sweetness-light.com/archive/ap-milks-rigged-poll-for-a-second-story/

[Berlin_Freeper]

WASHINGTON -- A majority of Americans want the Bush administration to get court approval before eavesdropping on people inside the United States, even if those calls might involve suspected terrorists, an AP-Ipsos poll shows.


Can you imagine how this question was asked? I bet there was no mention of 9/11 or other vicious attacks we are facing.

The real question should have been like this:

In light of the known fact that the Terrorist's number one goal in life is to mass murder as many Americans as possible, including whole cities with the worst weapons ever known to mankind, do you think we should waste valuable time in the courts or should we be allowed to listen to their phone calls in timely fashion with at least some hope that we can prevent another 9/11 attack?

[Fresh Wind]

At worst, those who purchase the “news” services of AP should demand their money back.

Why? Sounds like the news they bought was exactly what they wanted.

[gaspar]

The AP is a sneaky sewercrawling lot. Just once I would like to see a poll where the breakout is 52% Republican and 40% Democrat.

[randita]

The good news is that ABC doesn't get away with this stuff anymore. Every time they are called out on the carpet, their credibility (whatever is left of it) takes another hit and less and less people trust the media. They are administering their own arsenic.

Just look at the advertising on the ABC Evening News and you'll know who watches the show and it's not the movers and shakers.

[EQAndyBuzz]

"The AP is a sneaky sewercrawling lot. Just once I would like to see a poll where the breakout is 52% Republican and 40% Democrat."

They should be doing this by counties in the USA. Then 83% would be Republican to 17% Democrat. Or Maybe run the poll in a Red state.

Running polls in SF, CHI, NYC, PHI don't mean squat. All political polls should have by law the breakdown, if it is going to be published.

In addition, any article that ediorializes rather than reports only the facts whould say "Editorial".

[reformedliberal]

We haven't watched an alphabet network in 2 years. Tell me who the advertisers are on ABC, please?

[Robert A Cook PE]

Odd.

John Armour's work is usually much more clear, more easaily understood than this.

It's almost like we were reading his working notes, rather than his finished analysis. For example, without careful study (or already knowing the percentages!), you would not be able to understand the pool-taker's jargon and percentage differences between the people polled and the actual "market shares" of typical Americans: numbers of democrats to republicans, numbers of church-goers to those who don't attend, number of low-income (democrats) to low incomes at large, numbers of yuoth (predominnately liberal and heavily under the influence/propaganda of educators!).

Alll of these factors influenced the results of the poll, (as he points out) - but only in the last part of the last paragraph!

This is an important article, and important results, but it seriously needs an editor.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

"Every single one of the following crosstabs from the poll are wrong, and in every instance the error favors the Democrat responses."

I always assume that's a given for any poll numbers released on any given day by the MSM, so I tack on an average of 10 points for the Pubbies and get on with my life. :)

[Dave S]

Im not saying the poll isnt biased but you ought to at least read carefully what they say are doing before you bash them.

They are measuring registered voters, not likely voters and certainly not those who voted in 2004. The comparison that the author is making above is to actual 2004 results which everyone would admit were "abby normal" in that turnout was way higher than normal for both sides... higher for Dems among youth vote and higher for Republicans among those living in the far out suburbs and among religious voters. Those who voted in 2004 may or may not vote again in 2006 or 2008. Taking actual results for 2004 rather than an average of the last couple elections is probably just as biased as oversampling for Dems.

Also realize what the poll is attempting to show. It is reporting and it says it is reporting the beliefs of registered voters. This far out from an election not many polling outfits are going to spend a lot of extra money to determine or estimate likely voters. Be aware that in most off year elections, more party dieharts typically vote and independents say home. With the war and a lot of other issues perhaps resonating with independents they may actually show up and vote this year. Too early to tell.

[Wasanother]

"Founded in 1975, Ipsos is the only independent, publicly-listed company in its field that is managed by research professionals. We have grown beyond our French roots, and achieved continuous improvement, through organic growth and an aggressive strategy of acquiring companies who share our worldview of inquiry and multiple points-of-view."

[Democratshavenobrains]

Democrats only believe polls when they are in their favor.

[randita]

We haven't watched an alphabet network in 2 years. Tell me who the advertisers are on ABC, please?

All stuff geared to "seasoned citizens" -- antacids, Centrum Silver, denture cleaners, ED meds, etc.