Posted on 01/07/2006 2:47:45 PM PST by avile
Edited on 01/07/2006 3:09:30 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
The massive stroke that cut down Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon late Wednesday night not only throws Israeli politics into turmoil. It marks the likely starting point of the coming nuclear showdown that will pit the Jewish state and the Free World against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
How do the Iranians ensure their nukes don't just hit Gaza, the West Bank or East Jerusalem and the Temple Mount.
Very difficult. Based upon recent Iranian statements, they don't care as long as 1M Jews are also killed and Israel is destroyed.
Its sad because the Persians and Jew s are nutural and historic allies.
Logic would dictate that an ancient proud people like the Persians would want to vomit out a foreign religion schtuped up their a-s by conquering arabs.
How do we know that these exercises concerned the uses of nuclear/biological/chemical weapons? I mean, they didn't drag them out of hiding to show us, did they?
The quote from the article, "Jan. 4, three battalions of the IRGC ground forces began three days of NBC military exercises in Semnan Province", did not suggest that the exercises concerned the uses of nuc/bio/chem weapons. Did I miss something?
For awhile I thought that Achmadinejad was not irrational enough to actually launch an attack against Israel, for to do so would mean instant national suicide. I confess I wonder about how rational Achmadinejad really is. He just will not shut up about this 12th Imam business. If he is really that much of a fanatic there is no telling what might happen.
"Unilateral Israeli action, without provocation from Iran, could unleash a diplomatic, economic and military backlash such as the Jewish state had never witnessed since 1948, Mr. Sharon argued."
Sharon, was of course, correct.
"After meeting with President Bush at his Texas ranch last April, Mr. Sharon made a strategic decision -- against the advice of his own generals and intelligence staff -- to place his bets on U.S.-backed nuclear negotiations with Iran led by the European Union."
It is precisely *because* such an attack would provoke a huge backlash that would send Israel back many decades - IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN. IT WON'T HAVE TO. THE US WILL SEE TO IT.
Israel will defer to the US. The US is deferring to the EU since 2004 by letting the 'negotiations' track move along and stumble, the EU to Russia on proposal. Bad news? NOT AT ALL. You see, EU depends on the US being the 'bad cop' in international relations, but now suddenly their hand at bringing them to the table has played out; now they are faced with a nutball Iranian govt buying missiles that can reach Europe. And Russia, promising help on Iran's 'civilian nuclear program' offered and got spurned to be the parner to do nuclear reprocessing. Now even Russia has to admit that Iran is stringing everyone along. Here's what everyone misses: Iran's missiles (when they get them) may hit Tel Aviv, but they can reach Moscow, or Berlin, or Rome.
THIS MEANS WE NOW HAVE A UNITED FRONT THAT DOES NOT WANT IRAN TO HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND RECOGNIZES THAT IRAN IS TRYING TO DEVELOP THEM. For several years, Russia was denying the obvious and EU wanted to pursue talking.
Our patience was necessary anyway in order to avoid a 2-front war while Iraq is ongoing, and while the 'neo-cons' in the US are right to raise alarm bells, they are wrong about the timeline, which can be measured in *years* not months.
"The same day Mr. Larijani made those remarks, the Islamic Republic authorities sent an official letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, announcing their intention to resume enrichment at various nuclear sites across Iran Jan. 9."
Yes, this is even more good news, ironically. Iran *could* have been more sneaky and subtle, but by being in your face, they are enabling the US to enlist UN support and get IAEA to confirm Iran's intentions. Again, this makes unilateral action by Israel both unwise and unnecessary (at this time).
The only country that would veto UN action is China, based on economic ties. But even China is a covetous nuclear power. None of them want a new nuclear power on the block.
Hence sometime between now and 2009, this will get referred to the UN security council, sanctions will be imposed and wont work, and the US will get a figleaf resolution and take out the facilities. Some in the Arab world will be outraged, and it may help consolidate Iranian Government at home. They cant and wont use the 'oil weapon' since they (a) need the revenues for their state budget and (b) are pumping below their quota anyway and (c) have as their customers China and India.
It will be over in 12 hours and Iran's nuclear program will be set back another 10 years ... hopefully by that time the long-awaiting reawakening of Iranian freedom and democracy will happen. rinse, recycle, repeat.
I thought NBC meant "nuclear/biological/chemical."
"• In addition to a recent $1 billion arms agreement, announced last month, Russia is now negotiating with Iran's Revolutionary Guards to modernize Iran's fleet of MiG-29 fighters with state-of-the-art radar, electronic countermeasures and reconnaissance systems, specifically to counter the threat of Israeli aircraft.
A Revolutionary Guards buying mission will visit Lukhovitsy and Kalayazin in Russia to view these new systems in February 2006. The Russians have also agreed to sell Iran S-300 anti-missile systems, believed by most experts to be superior to any comparable system available on world markets."
As I've often said, Putin/Russia is an enemy of the United States as they continue to support, offer weapons to and embolden those who wish to destroy us.
"But as reality sank in about what an effective military strike against 60 to 70 Iranian sites would require, Prime Minister Sharon -- a long-time battlefield general -- had second thoughts."
PS. Think the first night of the Gulf War I. The US could do it.
Yikes! Am I dense or what? LOL But hey, "NBC" could have been the American liberal media sponsor for their military exercises. har har ;)
LOL - don't know if the liberal alternative to NBC exists in Iran - probably underground.
The defense minister of Israel was on the news about a week ago. He was asked how far Israel would go to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons. His reply was, "About 2,000 kilometers". He then explained that 2,000 kilometers was the distance by air from Israel to the Iranian capital. The reporters got a good chuckle out of his answer.
I suspect the Mullahs of Iran have watch all the grotesquely stupid partisan politicking by the Democrats lead by Kerry, Murtha, Pelosie Dean et al; seen the spineless appeasement in Old Europe, read our Junk Journalists and really figure the US lacks the guts to do anything to them. I suspect that they also BELIVE all the disinformation spewed forth by the Western "Journalists" about the "quagmire in Iraq". The situation is SO ripe for either them or us to make a mis-calculation. It is like watching a car sliding on ice in slow motion. The crash is inevitable. The ONLY thing that MAY save us is Bush. They have the object lesson of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein to look at. Bush does NOT bluff. However, how do you coexist with someone who BELIVES his god wants you dead?
The only possible "rational" option for him is to have his people plant the bomb inside Israel, then disavow the attack after it happens, leaving no one for Israel to attack.
2009?
Zackly.
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