Posted on 12/07/2005 6:47:16 PM PST by Heartofsong83
Tories failing to make gains in Ontario, B.C. Three main parties virtually tied in Ontario, poll finds
Chris Wattie, National Post Published: Wednesday, December 07, 2005
Canada's two biggest battlegrounds are proving treacherous for the Conservative party in the early days of the federal election.
The Tories' hopes of gaining ground in British Columbia and Ontario -- where the Jan. 23 election is likely to be decided -- have yet to be rewarded, according to a new public opinion poll.
While Conservative leader Stephen Harper has found support in the belt of suburban ridings surrounding Toronto, he is still struggling in the city itself, the poll shows.
And the Tory leader's standing in British Columbia is so precarious that he placed third when voters were asked which leader seemed best suited to dealing with the major issues facing the country. NDP leader Jack Layton came first.
According to pollster Ipsos Reid, Paul Martin and the Liberals are in a virtual three-way tie with the Conservatives and the NDP in Ontario.
The Prime Minister and his party were the choice 32% of Ontario residents, compared with 30% for Stephen Harper and the Tories and 29% for Jack Layton's New Democrats.
The poll asked 800 Ontario residents, chosen at random, which leader and party would do the best job dealing with the election issue they felt was most important to them.
The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, putting the three parties in an effective tie.
"We don't yet have a consensus as to who we should put into government," said John Wright, the senior vice-president at Ipsos Reid. "Nothing's moving out there, yet."
Mr. Wright said that many voters in Ontario are still waiting before committing their support to one party, but said a large share of the province's 106 ridings could swing to any party within a few days. "It really is a very, very tight race right now," he said.
"And it's very volatile.... It will come down to maybe 5% or 10% of the electorate ... and that could swing 25 seats, which will decide who forms a minority government."
The poll found that the Conservatives continue to struggle for support in the "416" area code of central Toronto ridings, where they are listed as the first choice of only 20% of those polled compared with 39% for the Liberals and 32% for the NDP.
However, in the "905 belt" of ridings around the city of Toronto Mr. Harper and the Tories were chosen by 33% of respondents. Mr. Martin and the Liberals were picked by 32% and the NDP was the first choice of 26%.
That represents good news for the Tories, who see the suburban belt as rich with potential.
The poll found Mr. Harper and the Conservatives were most popular in Eastern Ontario, where they were the first choice of 42% of respondents compared with 26% for the NDP and 25% for the Liberals.
In the southwestern corner of the province, they were chosen by 37% of those surveyed, while the NDP was picked by 30% and the Liberals by 27%.
The NDP and Liberals were strongest in Northern Ontario, and all three parties were locked in what amounted to a three-way tie in central Ontario, with 30% of those polled picking the New Democrats and 29% supporting the Liberals and Tories.
In B.C., Liberal leader Paul Martin scored well when voters asked who would be best equipped to keep Canada together, manage the economy or handle international affairs. But Mr. Layton enjoyed his strongest showing in the province, identified as the top overall leader both by male and female voters, and by all age classes except those over 55, who preferred Mr. Harper.
In Ontario, the main election issues named by voters correspond closely to national results, with 32% of those surveyed picking health care as their main concern. That was far ahead of corruption, at 12%, and managing the economy, at 7%.
However, twice as many people in Toronto's "905" area picked gun violence and the criminal justice system as their leading election issue than the provincial or national average.
Mr. Wright said that was not surprising after a recent spate of deadly shootings in Toronto.
The poll was conducted for CanWest News and Global Television between Nov. 29 and Dec. 1 and was considered accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will be larger for results of regional breakdowns.
The suburban 905 area around Toronto is a dead heat between the Liberals and Conservatives. The Conservatives are also leading by a wide margin in Eastern Ontario (613 area code), leading in Southwestern Ontario (519 area code) and pretty strong in Central Ontario (rest of 905 and part of 705 area codes).
The big reason the Conservatives aren't gaining is the 416 area code (City of Toronto), where they weren't expected to get any seats anyway.
Same in British Columbia - solidifying in the Interior, falling in Vancouver.
Considering that Toronto is a write off because the Liebranos have imported hundreds of thousands of 3rd worlders into it these numbers are actually pretty good.
That's how I see it too. If the Conservatives and Liberals are tied in Ontario, the Conservatives will get quite a bit more seats.
Amen to that.
What is the basic philosophy of the NDP? Are they much different from the Liberals?
Left of the Liberals. Out of the mainstream, although they have their niche as a socialist party, mainly catering to urban-hippies, social activists (i.e. gay rights supporters) and traditional unionists (although the former more so nowadays).
Basically, think Ralph Nader when it comes to our NDP.
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie.Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")
That's about how it sums up, although the Liberals and Conservatives are much bigger tents than the NDP. On the equivalent scale to the US parties, our Liberals would range from the mainstream US Democrats to the Kucinich wing (far left Democrats) and left-wing independents. The Conservatives would spread from the mainstream Republicans (although a few would even fit in the conservative wing) to RINOs and moderate Democrats. The NDP are left of any American party.
Noqw hold on a second. I believe the number of freaken Liberals up here in Khanuckistan is 75%.
It would seem that the key is whether the Liberals suffer vote wastage by having their base trapped in more inner city districts ala the Congressional district situation in the US.
Thanks for the explanation. Kind of what I assumed. With that kind of alignment, it hardly seems possible that the Tories could ever win a national election. And come to think of it, I guess they never do, right? Although how did Mulrooney sneak in there? Too much of Trudeau?
Basically a collapse of the Liberals, plus a coalition (although unnecessary in the end - he won an overwhelming majority) with Quebec separatists. He sort of rode the coattails of Thatcher and Reagan as well, although he really fell apart in his second term with the Meech Lake debacle and the GST.
That's what is very much happening.
3-way race likely there...
A tie in Ontario would be a huge victory for the tories, right??
Is it true that the more western provinces have fewer seats per capita?? Wouldn't that be descrimination?? Cause it sure ain't Democratic.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.