Tropical Storm STAN Public Advisory #4

000 WTNT35 KNHC 020854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST... ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM... SOUTH OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAN WILL BE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR MOST OF TODAY... BUT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BUT IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SOON AFTER EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...19.6 N... 87.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.

Tropical Storm Stan Discussion Number 4

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 02, 2005

Tropical Depression Twenty attained tropical storm status just off
the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This is based on 850 mb
flight level winds of 50 kt within a band of very deep convection
to the southeast of the broad circulation center... which is
characterized by a fairly large area of weak winds. The flight
level winds correspond to about 40 kt at the surface. The central
pressure fell to about 1003 mb. Satellite imagery indicates the
center is now making landfall south of Tulum... so the advisory
intensity remains 40 kt... but Stan is expected to weaken while
spending almost the next 24 hours over land. Conditions are still
expected to be conducive for restrengthening over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico... and the official forecast anticipates a hurricane
by 72 hours... in accordance with the SHIPS model after accounting
for interaction with land in the short term.
Stan continues moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt... although
this is a little uncertain given the difficulty in specifying the
exact center of the broad circulation. The new official forecast
is very similar to the previous advisory... only a little slower
late in the period due to a lack of models actually showing final
landfall on the Gulf Coast of Mexico. This solution is followed
for continuity and since the various model solutions beyond 48
hours are so diverse. There would appear to be enough ridging over
the Gulf of Mexico to force Stan westward across the entire Bay of
Campeche.

Forecaster Knabb

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/0900z 19.6n 87.5w 40 kt
12hr VT 02/1800z 20.1n 88.9w 30 kt...inland
24hr VT 03/0600z 20.7n 90.9w 35 kt
36hr VT 03/1800z 21.0n 92.9w 45 kt
48hr VT 04/0600z 20.9n 94.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 05/0600z 20.5n 96.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 06/0600z 20.0n 97.5w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 07/0600z...dissipated

For anyone who feels like being alarmist, a couple of the computer models now show Stan turning due north or NNW right after crossing the Yucatan peninsula (toward LA/MS/AL), and the GFDL has Stan looping around in the Bay of Campeche just short of Tampico, riding the coast of Mexico back to and over the Yucatan, and then headed toward Florida. =)

The only one that does is CLIPER, which is a fundamentally worthless and ancient model; It's not really a model at all (in the sense that current weather conditions are input and future conditions predicted) it's just a statistical database of similar storms in a similar location. But there's no actual data in it of current locations of high pressures to the north, etc.

This storm has basically zero chance of hitting the US.

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