Well, I'll be!
What worries me is that we might get to Storm Omega...
Tropical Storm Stan Discussion Number 4
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 02, 2005
Tropical Depression Twenty attained tropical storm status just off
the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This is based on 850 mb
flight level winds of 50 kt within a band of very deep convection
to the southeast of the broad circulation center... which is
characterized by a fairly large area of weak winds. The flight
level winds correspond to about 40 kt at the surface. The central
pressure fell to about 1003 mb. Satellite imagery indicates the
center is now making landfall south of Tulum... so the advisory
intensity remains 40 kt... but Stan is expected to weaken while
spending almost the next 24 hours over land. Conditions are still
expected to be conducive for restrengthening over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico... and the official forecast anticipates a hurricane
by 72 hours... in accordance with the SHIPS model after accounting
for interaction with land in the short term.
Stan continues moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt... although
this is a little uncertain given the difficulty in specifying the
exact center of the broad circulation. The new official forecast
is very similar to the previous advisory... only a little slower
late in the period due to a lack of models actually showing final
landfall on the Gulf Coast of Mexico. This solution is followed
for continuity and since the various model solutions beyond 48
hours are so diverse. There would appear to be enough ridging over
the Gulf of Mexico to force Stan westward across the entire Bay of
Campeche.
Forecaster Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 02/0900z 19.6n 87.5w 40 kt
12hr VT 02/1800z 20.1n 88.9w 30 kt...inland
24hr VT 03/0600z 20.7n 90.9w 35 kt
36hr VT 03/1800z 21.0n 92.9w 45 kt
48hr VT 04/0600z 20.9n 94.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 05/0600z 20.5n 96.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 06/0600z 20.0n 97.5w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 07/0600z...dissipated
"Make a new plan,Stan".
-Paul Simon