Posted on 09/28/2005 9:35:32 AM PDT by Valin
BERLIN — A little over week ago, observers on both sides of the Atlantic and both sides of the political spectrum were calling September 18 a crossroads for Germany: Either Germany would choose the path of free-market reform or continue down the path of status-quo statism. But the observers were wrong. Rather than giving Angela Merkel a mandate to change course or Gerhard Schroeder a mandate to stay the course, the German electorate simply froze in the middle of the intersection. And that’s a dangerous place to be, as anyone who has tried to cross a busy Berlin street knows.
Germany’s political leaders have 30 days to seat a parliament and make sense of this election. But even after they do that, the haze of September 18 will linger. Whether they create a grand coalition or a rainbow patchwork of parties, the result will be the same: an unwieldy and unworkable hybrid that can’t deliver the reforms Germany needs.
As a result of this election with no mandate and no majority, no one can claim victory (though virtually every party has tried to do just that), and no one will concede defeat. Merkel’s Christian Democrats edged past Schroeder’s Social Democrats. But neither of these centrist parties garnered enough support to claim a majority. With the Greens losing ground to the far left, Schroeder lost his pre-election majority. And although the market-friendly Free Democrats earned their highest vote tally ever, it wasn’t high enough to boost the CDU into its own majority coalition.
In short, the splintered German electorate decided not to go left or right, backward or forward. Or perhaps better said, German voters tried to go both left and right, backward and forward, by following the advice of that American sage Yogi Berra, who famously counseled, “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”
Yet the post-election postmortem brings more worries than laughter. On the political front, it is evident now more than ever that Germans may talk about wanting reform but they do not want to endure the change needed to bring about reform. For a majority of Germans change represents not an opportunity but a threat—and it’s enough to paralyze a country. To choose the path of reform is to take a risk on the unknown, a frightening prospect for many Germans. It’s frightening because Germany has lost its confidence, its sense that tomorrow can be better than today.
Quite simply, and sadly, most Germans no longer believe they control their own destiny. As a Pew survey found, 68 percent of Germans say success is determined by forces outside their control. Indeed, both before and after this election with no losers and no winners, I have been struck by the gloomy, even fatalistic attitude prevalent in Germany. Faith in God, or at least faith in the church, faded away in the postwar decades. Faith in the economy evaporated after the euphoria and cost of reunification. And now, faith in the state and its politicians is at an all-time low (as evidenced by the election results).
With no leader, no mandate to lead, and no direction, Germany will continue to flat-line on the economic front. Unemployment will continue to float in the double-digit range. Corporations (and their workers and revenues) will continue to drift to Eastern Europe and beyond. And nearly half of the German population will stay out of the workforce.
On the international front, Germany’s political paralysis will have consequences as well. The United States and European Union need Germany to help fuel the global economy. As European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso puts it, “without a dynamic Germany, Europe cannot recover.”
Likewise, without a “transatlantic Germany,” the transatlantic community cannot recover from the disagreements over Iraq or go forward in unity. Washington needs Germany to return to its historic postwar position as transatlantic partner. From the War on Terror to nuclear proliferation to international arms sales, Germany and the U.S. can achieve much more working together than we ever could in separate camps.
As the election approached, I made sure to ask every German I encountered—shopkeepers and taxi-drivers, hotel clerks and corporate leaders—the same question: “Who is going to win the election?” Surprisingly, they all gave me the same answer: “Nobody.” And they were right. Nobody wins until Germany takes a risk and moves beyond this intersection.
Dan Coats served as U.S. Ambassador to Germany from 2001-2005 and U.S. Senator from 1989-1999. He is co-chairman of the government relations group at King & Spalding, and co-chairman of the Board of Trustees of Sagamore Institute for Policy Research.
Hey why not declare round three ,take on the world again and get yourselves out of that socialist funk your in?
Piffle, the Germans have toiled mightily to turn
themselves into ignorant layabouts. Let them enjoy
the feast of their labors.
YOU ARE GERMANY!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1492681/posts
In other words: the fruits of Socialism.
"The United States and European Union need Germany to help fuel the global economy."
Over time, other European nations will and are taking up the slack. The fact that German companies are moving their jobs east is very telling in this regard. If Germany can't do what it must, it risks ceding it's spot as Europe's economic engine.
Smart businesses are re-locating elsewhere....you reap what you sew, Socialists....soon, you'll have fewer companies and people to tax and regulate to death.
Why do you think Guido Westerschwuler did so well?
First, the FDP was against rising the VAT (though they didn´t tell us how to counterfinance the social insurance policy cuts).
Second, the FDP was the only party that has decided that it will form a coalition ONLY with the CDU/CSU. They were tied to us, and that helped them to gain sympathy votes from us. 40% of the FDP voters explained, that their favorite party is the CDU/CSU. And voting for the FDP posed no risk for a center-right coalition.
Third, many people voted FDP because of compassion. Seriously, lots of voters didn´t the Greens or Commies to be the 3rd largest party.
Bad situation here.
Please keep your fellow FReepers posted on your thoughts about what is really going on, and what you believe will come next - and I would certainly appreciate any pings you would like to give me when you do.
I have not a real list, but I will consider your name on posts, thank you for your trust.
With the exception of the FDP...its a lose-lose situation for almost everyone else. Its doubtful that Merkel will be able to form a government. Schroeder will be a chance after 30 days. He won't be able to form a government, but he will be given the minority run of the government after his initial failure. There will be laughs and jokes about leadership in the country for several months...and new elections in Feb will likely have to occur.
The Greens have lost their Icon...with no real leadership apparent in the next twelve months. The Left party won...but are frozen out of any deals.
And the business sector will see no improvement coming...which will drag the economy even more. It would have been better if no election occurred...sad to say...at least expectations would not have been dashed here.
Now you´ve pointed out the worst case, I will paint things brighter :-).
The Grand Coalition will solve severe problems, like repairing our health system, reforming the Bund-Länder-relations, creating an easier tax system, and the people get back some trust. The ecomomy will recover a bit. Once that has been accomplished, the coalition breaks and we have new elections in 2 years, and a center-right coalition. :-)
Of course, you could be right as well. We´ll see.
I'm not that pessimistic either. As long as the first steps that were taken towards reforms will not be scaled back, the economy will improve. Maybe even Roland Koch will become chancellor. If this will be the outcome the narrow election result might even prove as a plus in the end. I've seen Merkel on TV today. She looks as if she aged 10 years within the last two weeks. Lots of new wrinkles on a very dry skin.
BTW: Thee's an excellent new TV station in Germany. It's called "Das Vierte" http://www.das-vierte.de. Tonight they have an Al Pacino night. Right now they show "Scent of a Woman" and afterwards "Scarface". They are somehow associated to NBC. If you have cable "Das Vierte" runs on the channel were NBC was before.
Yep, I saw das-vierte....but I'm missing my financial channel. Did they move that to a different position on the satellite? Or is it permanently gone?
I think here at me it's gone. TV here is getting worse and worse anway. First BBC had to share a channel with NBC. As a replacement for BBC I got another shopping station. Now I think they removed BBC entirely and instead put this "Das Vierte" on which doesn't seem to be as good as I first thought. I already thought about cancelling TV.
Not surprising given the emphasis the European media have given the "somebody else is to blame" argument for everything from global warming to the price of peas.
It will pass, Michael. This really still is the Germany that gave us Beethoven and Goethe. Keep the faith.
I bet the numbers in Bavaria are different. Everybody can have success - limited depending on his capabilities, but still.
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