Posted on 06/09/2005 6:11:20 AM PDT by UCAL
In 2006, the most important Senate race in the nation is Pennsylvania. This is not only because it is considered a prime pickup opportunity in an important swing state, but also because Rick Santorum clearly has Presidential aspirations. In fact, with Frist seriously damaged, and with Brownback engaging in a strange bout of self-immolation with the conservative netroots, Santorum could be well positioned to seize the support of the theocons in the Republican primary. A victory in Pennsylvania in 2006 is also a national victory in 2008. However, things are not looking so good for little Ricky:
>Favorable / Unfavorable
Poll Date Santorum Casey
Keystone 6/5 42/26 40/9
Pew 5/27 49/28 52/13
Q-poll 4/18 36/25 40/6
Trial Heats Santorum Casey
Keystone 6/5 37 44
Keystone 3/20 43 44
Q-poll 4/18 35 49
Q-poll 2/14 41 46
Casey's favorables are remarkable. Despite a name ID hovering in the low sixties, very few Pennsylvanians have a negative or unfavorable opinion of him. By contrast, with a name ID in the mid-seventies, Santorum's favorables are still decent, but nowhere near as good as Casey's. Considering this, right now, I think it is fairly safe to conclude that Casey is leading poll after poll in Pennsylvania not because people dislike Santorum, but because people really like Casey.
The trends also look good. Casey has widened his lead on Santorum in both the Q-poll and the Keystone poll.
Further, an incumbent at 37% is extremely poor, but since he is probably facing Casey who has been previously elected to statewide office, the incumbent rule does not apply to this race to nearly the same degree. That is not to say that Casey cannot benefit at least somewhat from being the challenger, since his name ID is about 15 points lower than Santorum's. This means that Casey has more room to grow than Santorum.
Still, here's the real kicker in the Keystone poll. While Santorum is down seven points to Casey, facing a negative trendline, losing the favorable struggle and has less room to grow, he is still heavily over-performing in uber-Democratic Philadelphia:
Does Rick Santorum Deserve Re-election?
Region Yes No
Philly 39 39
NE 37 39
Pitt 32 55
SW 44 48
NW 44 45
Central 46 35
SE 38 51
Santorum is actually doing better in this poll in Philadelphia than he is in Pittsburgh, the Philly suburbs, or Northeast PA. Philadelphia, however, is going to vote at least 75% against Santorum. Considering this and the other factors I listed, if we blow this one, we are not going to win pretty much anywhere else in the country in 2006.
They wouldn't be able to handle a candidate who doesn't hide from his past.
Well, maybe, in a few years, after the statute of limitations. . . LOL
Define 'good' republican. ;-)
Time will tell, won't it?
What you want, and what is REALITY are two distinct things.
So, 15 folks, by your estimation are to the right of Santorum.... in a body of 100 folks... SO in your mind, because 15 folks are to teh right of him, and 84 folks are to teh left of him, he should be removed... som someone who is definately going to be more to the left of him can take his place?
Uh, yea, that makes so much sense.
As I've said before, if you think Santorum is the problem in the Senate, you aren't paying attention.
Just today I saw Santorum on EWTN and CBN condemning the arrests of Christians in Saudi Arabia, and their desecration and intollerance toward any religion other than Islam.. and calling for an end to such things and the hypocracy of their stands.... something that most folks in the Senate won't touch with a 10' pole, and even BUSH will dodge the issue if he can.
Your argument that Santorum is to blame for Specter is again false and idiotic. Toomey was afterbirth in the general election, he was going to be spit out by Philly like yesterdays garbage... Santorum for all you may dislike him WINS, and WINS STATEWIDE IN GENERAL ELECTIONS... you don't have to like it, but that's reality.. Toomey doesn't and isn't going to anytime soon. Someday he may, but he isn't remotely baked enough to pull it off.
Get over the sour grapes.. Toomey lost.. all your spite and anger isn't going to change that.
It always does.
Then in your eyes I'm an idiot. And based on your posts I kind of consider that a badge of honor.
Your personal attacks fail to mask what stands out most from your posts:
You desire a party label, the "letter R", more than you desire conservatives. If Bernie Sanders, the socialist running for the Senate had an "R" next to his name, you would be content.
Since 1995 when the Republicans caved-in on the government shutdown, this nation and the Republican party have moved left. They have moved left because principles have been sacrificed just so "Rs" can get elected.
I care about the nation's future--you care about party label.
I care about the principles of limited government and a conservative agenda--you care about party label.
Finally, I post like an adult--you engage in personal attacks, right out of the playbook of liberal tactics.
The casey campaign thanks you, so does hillary.
Santorum may deserve to get beat, but not because he is a socialist. He isn't.
Let me know when you've cleared Pennsylvania of Republicans and we'll get you started on the rest of the country.
SANTORUM TROUBLES [Jack Fowler]
Arlen Specter’s buddy seems to be in deepening re-election trouble according to a new Keystone Poll out this week(as Buzz reported; here's the whole poll): the incumbent Republican now trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr. by a 44% to 37% margin in the 2006 Senate match-up. In the previous Keystone survey conducted in March, Casey led Santorum 44% to 43% -- the son of the late popular governor may not be moving ahead, but the incumbent (whose “favorable” numbers aren’t) is falling behind. This one is going to be a doozie.
Posted at 09:40 AM http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/05_06_05_corner-archive.asp#065779
SANTORUM TROUBLES [Jack Fowler]
Arlen Specter’s buddy seems to be in deepening re-election trouble according to a new Keystone Poll out this week(as Buzz reported; here's the whole poll): the incumbent Republican now trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr. by a 44% to 37% margin in the 2006 Senate match-up. In the previous Keystone survey conducted in March, Casey led Santorum 44% to 43% -- the son of the late popular governor may not be moving ahead, but the incumbent (whose “favorable” numbers aren’t) is falling behind. This one is going to be a doozie.
Posted at 09:40 AM http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/05_06_05_corner-archive.asp#065779
A. "Apparently, it's a way of making "Christian" sounding scary. "
Q. To whom, Theophobes?
Now for the report on your inane post:
You make the claim that Toomey was dead meat state wide because of the heavi democrat edge in registration, but then you turn right around and claim that is why Santorum is NOT in trouble. You seem to want it both ways.
Many, if not most or all, of Ricky's supporters backed Toomey. Many of even expected and accepted some mild level of endorsement. Ricky went all out for him. Now, whether you like it or not and whether you agree with our reaction or not, the reality is that WE ARE PISSED OFF and we will not support Ricky again.
Soooooo, in this state with a heavy registration edge held by his opponent's party, and never having won by substantial margins to begin with, and being abandoned by his disenchanted base, the only way for him to win is for the Dems not to turn out. This race is Casey's to lose.
Since you can't, don't, or won't see it, I'm here to point it out for you 18 months out from the election.
Are you willfully being blind and deaf to the numerous posts showing that Ricky doesn't vote with us as much as we think? Do you see the crap his supporting and proposing? It's pure socialism. he doesn't 'have' to do this stuff. He's doing it to buy votes with our money and our liberty. He's not doing this to be altruistic. Altruists use their own money. Government thieves do their good deeds with money taken from us at gunpoint and only do it to preserve their position and to increase our dependence on them. This has been Ricky's record of late.
Why are you missing this point? He's changed. He is not the same person that we sent to DC. He has Potomac Fever. All I want to do is see him get cured and that usually means leaving DC.
Again, you miss the point that we don't want Casey. We don't want a Democrat. We also don't want a Republican who has been behaving as a democrat and promoting socialism. WE don't want a big government socialist no matter what party label he wears.
I want him to step down and get promoted to some cushy job so that a trustworthy, conservative republican can win.
I have also made this point many times. A primary challenge would accomplish nothing and hurt Toomey in the long run.
Ricky is damaged and it's self inflicted damage. I just hope that he realizes that he can't win and gets out of the way in time or we will soon have 2 Democrat senators.
Is that why Bush lost too? [Oh, wait...]
Let's see. . .
Senate -- 100 Senators, each with 1% of the total vote.
President -- ONE President, with 100% of the power of that office.
Do you see the difference? Do you understand it? Probably not.
No, Santorum has a track record of getting votes, and getting votes from Dems crossing party lines.. Toomey doesn't... Toomey couldn't even win the primary of his own party, with a campaign that was basically "I'm not specter"... He was goose crap statewide in a general.
All of Santorums supporters did NOT back Toomey, if they had he would have won.. he didn't. The primaries in the Republican party always overrepresent the more conservative wing of the party, just like primaries for the dems overrepresent the radical communist wing of their party... and even with an overrepresentation of the far right conservatives Toomey still could not win his parties nod state wide... You again are just making false statements not based on reality but your feelings. Toomey did not have most or all of Santorum's supporters behind him.
You think a guy whos in the top 20% of conservatives in the Senate is damaged goods and bad for america, and should be tossed out of office, well then, there just really is no hope for ya. Cut off your nose to spite your face.
No, we're not naive. You aren't being honest or you are blind and stupid.
If it a bad idea, it's a bad idea every day, every where. It's not suddenly a good idea of you are talking to a union member.
Just the other day, Ricky told the Teamsters that he is still working with "...my good friend Ted Kennedy because this must be passed."
You call it politics. I call it lying or pandering. Do you ever wonder why people think politicians are just liars? You tell them it's okay to lie.
Did you read my post????? I said I voted for Bush and anyone who knows me knows full well that I did. I persuaded others to vote for him as well.
And BTW, your Mr. T act is not impressive and less than convincing.
You haven't a clue about how I view the political landscape. I want to see more conservatives elected to office and I want to get rid of some party hacks fully realizing we will never get rid of them all, an impossible feat I wouldn't dream of attempting. Unfortunately there will always be people in the Republican party, exactly like you. Fine. But hopefully, fewer and fewer of you will be holding positions of power.
As to perfection, I gave up on expecting it from anyone regarding anything long, long, ago. But if I can help it, I will not accept anyone who is less than a loyal conservative.
You stick with your Rino's, traitors and party hacks. I'll stick with loyal conservatives, at least ones that don't sell us out to the likes of a snake like Specter, an egregious offense given the importance of getting conservative judges on the bench.
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