Posted on 10/31/2004 9:23:01 PM PST by crushelits
Scattered Thoughts as We Near the Election
| Do you sometimes get the feeling you are right and everyone else is wrong, that everyone is stupid except for you? We sure do. We get that feeling a lot. So when our story quoting a senior GOP veteran saying the presidential race would tighten and Kerry would actually enjoy a slight, marginal lead this week as voters took one last peek at the alternative to President Bush was greeted with jeers around the blogosphere, you could say we were aggravated. Our aggravation has only been accentuated when we consider that at least the Washington Post tracking confirms our source was spot on. Moreover, there can be few denials that this scenario represents the general trend of the last week. That’s why we’re so thankful to the one lonesome voice in the blogosphere which recognizes just how right we were. We’ve said it before. We’ll say it again until we’re blue in the face … sometimes everyone just needs to shut up and listen! |
| The trend was all Bush. But in a few national polls like Reuters and AP, Kerry has shown some movement. This is disconcerting to some people "on the outside" whose moods depend on the latest poll numbers. So we spoke to a veteran GOP consultant who has been around the block a few times to see if this is something we should be worried about. “Probably not,” he said. “Voters are going to take one last look at John Kerry. Then they will swing hard back to President Bush.” “There is a lot of uncertainty out there. And people do not know who to blame for that uncertainty. But while many voters are willing to change their minds, willing to look at Kerry, I don’t believe they will abandon the president in a time of war.” So we need not worry about this trend that appears to be favoring Kerry? “No worries. This represents the natural, organic flow of the campaign.” Our subject, a veteran of both Reagan campaigns for president, as well as Jack Kemp’s ill-fated presidential campaign, asked to remain nameless, partly because he has some critical words for the presidential re-election effort - (Update - the rest of this sentence was inadvertantly omitted from the original posting)specifically not hitting Kerry's liberal record early enough as well as the President's first debate performance, which he feels gave Kerry new life at a time when Bush could have buried him. “Bush isn’t going to win this. Kerry’s going to lose it,” he said. “All this talk about a secret plan for this and a secret plan for that comes off as desperate to most voters. And that’s because it is desperate. That makes him look too risky. People won’t make a risky choice in a time of uncertainty.” Our subject also believes in the end, 2004 won’t be as close as the 2000 election. “We know that when voters move, they move in big numbers. It’s a strange phenomenon. But there is a collective decision that gets made that usually favors one candidate over another in a big way.” But why didn’t that happen in 2000? “It did! And Al Gore was the beneficiary. Bush lost a substantial lead in the last four days of the 2000 election and ended up losing the popular vote and barely squeaking out an Electoral College win. But the folks running the Bush re-election campaign are smart enough to have learned their lesson and not let it happen like that again.” But this big mass movement of voters, wouldn’t it favor the challenger? If people haven’t moved to the incumbent by now, why would they do so in the last week of a campaign? “Because a presidential campaign is not subject to the traditional rules that govern an incumbent-challenger campaign. Essentially, we’re talking about two incumbents here. All the trappings of incumbency have been equalized between Bush and Kerry … the fundraising advantage, greater access to the media, higher name ID. None of those are factors in this campaign.” So what’s the bottom line? “In the next couple of days you will see a trend that shows Kerry taking a small but consistent lead against President Bush. I’m talking one or two points. And then, almost without warning or explanation, you will see the President open up a four- to six-point lead on or around Thursday. And that trend will carry the President through Election Day.” And all this talk about a GOP October Surprise? “It could happen. And it could exaggerate this trend I’m talking about. But it’s not necessary for a Bush win.” |
Can you feel it, baby??
BUSH HAS THIS ELECTION WON!!! WOOOOOHOOOOOOOO!!!
At first I thought "Well that isn't happening," but actually, it is pretty close to what IS happening.
I have a feeling the GOP maven here is Ed Rollins. The Kemp campaign reference gives it away. Plus he was a Perotista. I wouldn't want to bet the farm on something Rollins says, if that's who the unnamed GOP insider is.
Thursday was a few days ago, actually.
That's true, and no 4-6 point lead is being reported for Bush. From what I have been hearing, that doesn't mean it isn't there (sorry about the double negative!), it is just that the MSM and the biased poll takers are squashing that lead.
I met Ed Rollins, definate middle-of-the-road republican. Would no suprise me in the least.
Good guy, strong alliance to the party, but I have a feeling he isn't a Bush fan!
Pfft. People have no problem giving Bush due for the drop of support at the end of the 2000 race, but giving Bush due for holding and gaining support in 2004 seems to be beyond them.
Kerry will not lose this, he never had it. This has been a race between the MSM and Bush. If all things were fair in that the traditional bias held against Republicans was retained, Kerry would have been finished early on. The campaign against Bush including fraud and collusion between the MSM/DNC & U.N. is unprecedented. It is not normal in the usual sense they demonstrate bias against the Republican candidate.
For Bush to be close to winning against this handicap, imo, means he is deserving of credit in achieving this win. Certainly events and peoples have helped get him here, but in the end the majority of us are voting FOR Bush, not against Kerry. I strongly doubt Bush would be on the verge of victory against the MSM if he hadn't won this election by virtue of his strength in the WOT and the strength of his character. The credit will be his, should this election turn the way we hope and pray and I, for one, will give him his earned credit in light of victory.
Where I do agree is in the tightening of the polls. I dismiss the MSM's power is what it once was, but I know my enemy. I also strongly suspect I know the American people, at least I hope I do. This is why I've said we'll coast to a tight race, then break election day. It is my opinion the MSM can only carry a candidate so far, before people are forced to wake to reality and cast a vote.
Fred Barnes: They'll Do Anything
The Weekly Standard ^ | 11/01/04 | Fred Barnes
Posted on 10/31/2004 9:17:06 PM PST by Pokey78
THE SCARIEST THING about this election is not the prospect of a contested outcome with no winner declared for weeks, just as in 2000. No, the most scary thing is the sense of entitlement that many Democrats and their allies have about tomorrow's election. It goes like this: Bush stole the presidency four years ago, then proceeded to act as if he had a mandate, so now we're entitled to do whatever it takes to defeat him, to say whatever we want.
You see it in the bumper stickers that call for the "re-defeat" of President Bush. You see it in the destruction of Bush yard signs and posters all across the country. You see it in the harassment, at least in blue states, of anyone wearing a Bush pin or button. You see it in the hatred of Bush by his opponents, who think they're only venting righteous indignation.
You see it in the religious bigotry against the president, a born-again Christian, and against his conservative Christian supporters. Without any evidence, Bush's opponents accuse him of believing that he has a direct line to God and that God gives him instructions, such as when to invade Iraq, and that any criticism of him is illegitimate. You see the bigotry as well in the belittling of Christians who support Bush as if their political views have no standing or worth because they may have been influenced by their religious faith.
You see it in the now exposed plans of Democrats to claim intimidation
of minority voters even if no intimidation actually occurs. You see it in the voter registration efforts by Democrats that have made the number of people on the voting rolls in some jurisdictions larger than the voting age population. You see it in the plans of Democratic lawyers to file lawsuits all over the country, challenging the outcome unless Bush is defeated.
You see that same sense of entitlement in elements of the national media--especially CBS News--who jettison the normal rules of journalism when Bush is the target. CBS not only rushed out with forged documents to torpedo the Bush campaign in September, the network intended to take another bite at Bush two days before the election by airing a dubious story about stolen explosives in Iraq. Would CBS have dared to do this against any other public figure but Bush? No.
And you see it in the victimization that is claimed for John Kerry. The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth? Anything they say about Kerry is automatically a smear and thus doesn't have to be examined or even considered. And Kerry has no obligation to answer questions about his Vietnam experience, though he's played it up in the campaign. Bush's record in the Texas Air National Guard during the Vietnam war, however, is fair game. And you see the feeling of entitlement in comments by the Democratic candidates and their backers, who seem to feel they're free to say anything they want about Bush and Vice President Cheney. So we get the targeting of Mary Cheney as a lesbian and the criticism of Laura Bush for having worked in jobs that weren't real jobs. And when anyone accuses Democrats of debasing the campaign, the answer is always: it's Bush's fault. Bush is hardly without fault, but the shabby style and substance of this campaign is the fault of his opponents.
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