Posted on 10/31/2004 9:06:29 PM PST by Greek
One thing we all have to realize is that there is a conspiracy of sorts between the media, poolsters, and both candidates to report close races. Everyone wins.
1. The media wins because ratings are much higher in a close race than a boring blowout. Ever been to a 40-10 football game? Yawn.
2. Pollsters win with close polls because people on both sides frequently check when a race is "close." Been to RCP lately? Only about every 5 minutes.
3. Bush wins because complacency is a winner's biggest enemy. Ever see a loser in a football game come back from behind because the better team let their guard down? Turnout is hurt when the base perceives a big lead. They reason, "They don't need my vote?" and stay home. Notice that Bush has been saying this was going to be a close race for a year now?
4. Kerry wins for the same reason Bush does. A loser's base is equally turned off from voting when their candidate is likely to get blown away. Have you seen the attendence numbers at an Arizona Wildcat game lately?
The bad news is, I have my suspicions, but I cannot say which one will blow the other out. I guess you will all just have to vote and see.
"poolsters" = pollsters.
Yes! They can be fun especially if my team is winning.
This is excellently stated. And it will be a Bush landslide on Tuesday. Look for Judy Woodruff's makeup to start running around 8 EST.
My favorite DUmmie explanation of the polls is: "There is a huge voter block of cell phone users that aren't getting called."
Pfft.. At the very best, Cell Phone-only users swing 60-40 towards Kerry, in the Dems best scenario, 4 million of these people show up at the polls.. giving Kerry a 2.4m to 1.6m lead over Bush in cell-phone only users.. 800,000 votes in a race expected to turn in 115-120 million? Less than 1 percent boost for Kerry.
The more likely number is about 1 1/2 to 2 million of these mystery people showing up., giving Kerry a 300k-400k boost. About a .2 or .3 percent boost ofr Kerry.
They are living in fiction. It's going to hurt real bad for them Tuesday.
The Rats are convinced that huge turnout is going to save them. But their people still have to figure out how to use the voting machines.
If it was a kerry landslide, they'd be reporting it. Hell, they've never even shown kerry UP in the polls at all (except for some dem polls where he had a 1 point lead for a day or two).
AFter this election cycle, there needs to be a shakeup of pollsters and polling methods. There's just been too much garbage and polls-to-drive-news going on.
I always like this polling site.
http://electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
While it's true that the cell-phone user only crowd tends to be young, they also tend to be people that have jobs, so I think it's a wash.
Good, Bush is going to win in a landslide.....
And Dan Rather crying about 8:01! I agree with you 100% -- when there is a landslide, it is not going to be Kerry winning.
This feels like 1994 when Pres Bush trounced Ma Richards (polls said she would win BTW) and 1980 when Reagan clobbered Carter and 1988 when Bush #41 clobbered Dukakis.
That's my feeling too. Remember how Democrat base rage and resulting voter turnout was going to beat Jeb like a drum in '02?
Well we know what happened with those too close to call polls and the early call for Carter. People that answer pollster just don't tell them the real story.
Tee kanis pethee-mou. Pose easeh?
Typing phonetically is NOT easy!
Yasou!
I had a tooth extracted in the afternoon after I voted.
I was in sheer ecstacy, sore jaw and all, when the returns came in that night.
What a great victory sweep!
I'd sure like to experience that feeling again.
I'd even give another tooth for a Bush landslide,].
Just like in 02 WOOT WOOT WOOT!
A Bush landslide would be like having two Christmases in the same year!
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