Posted on 10/30/2004 6:40:29 PM PDT by ambrose
Bush hangs on to slim leads in state polls
Good news for the president in two states Gore carried, Iowa and New Mexico; virtual tie in Ohio, four-point Bush edge in Florida
By Tom Curry
National affairs writer MSNBC
Updated: 8:01 p.m. ET Oct. 30, 2004
MILWAUKEE, Wisc. - With 48 hours of campaigning left, President Bush is holding on to narrow leads over Democratic challenger John Kerry in two-thirds of states surveyed by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, including six of the nine that remain on most lists of crucial "battleground states" that are considered too close to call.
In two crucial states, Bush has a four-point lead in Florida, within the poll’s margin of error, and a two-point lead in Ohio, again within the poll’s margin of error.
In Florida, Mason-Dixon interviewed 800 likely voters and the survey had a margin of error of 3.5 points. In Ohio, 625 likely voters were interviewed and the margin of error was four points.
In Iowa, which Democratic candidate Al Gore carried by 4,144 votes last time, Mason-Dixon found that the president has a five point lead, 49 percent to 44 percent over Kerry. Mason-Dixon interviewed 636 likely Iowa voters and the poll had a margin of error of four percentage points.
Bush trails by two points in Pennsylvania and likewise by two in Michigan and in Wisconsin, where he and Kerry both campaigned Saturday. Gore carried all three of those states in 2000.
Nowhere, except in states the Kerry campaign has pretty much conceded, such as Arkansas and West Virginia, did Mason-Dixon polling find the president with comfortable leads. In each of those states, Bush has a lead of eight percentage points.
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
Only Bush would be called having a 'slim lead' by these slimeballs...if the numbers were reversed, they'd call it a Kerry landslide...
These numbers actually look pretty good, electoral-college wise....real good, in fact.
skerry closing the deal the headline would say
but the real headline if the media was fair barf barf
Pres in control in blue states that gore won
w2004
ciao
Well we are up a little in Ohio. It is better that being down.
Awful close but if we hold OH, and only lose NH but pick up IA, MN, and NM, that comes to 296 and victory!
Our leads are slim then what are his? 2 in MI,2 in PA?
If Bush picks up any of these states, he will win.
GGGGGOOOOOOOOOOOO DUBYA! I caught a bit of HW campaigning in CO on CSpan today when I got home. He was great! He lost it a bit toward the end, but that was just fine! He is very proud of our President, and of our nation.
GO DUBYA!!!!!
(I'll be busy on Tuesday after I vote....... poll watching)
This would cut down the Dem voter fraud.
Look at that quote from Stan Greenberg, Kerry pollster and advisor:
"Apparently seeking to dispel any idea that sentiment is shifting toward Bush, Kerry adviser and pollster Stan Greenberg told reporters Saturday, “We’re looking at remarkably stable race — a remarkably dead-heat race — that’s true this week, that’s true this Saturday, nothing that we’ve looked at up until now has changed the character of this race."
Do you think a Kerry advisor would say this, if Kerry was surging due to the OBL tape?
If you think you have the lead, you say so. If you think you are surging, you say so. If you think you are losing, you claim its tied.
These are the little things I look for.
These numbers look very good......and this is a very good firm...Bush has a 51 approval to Kerrys 42....no way he can win...
BUSH
FL AR CO OH IA MI MO NH NV WV OR PA WI MN NM
Favorable 51 51 52 48 49 45 49 48 53 50 45 46 46 46 51
Neutral 10 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 10 12 10 11 10 14 12
Unfavorable 39 39 38 41 39 43 39 41 37 37 45 43 43 40 37
What the hell is this?
Has no one noticed this data?
>Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. conducted these polls from October 15 through October 18, 2004. A total of 625 likely voters in each state were interviewed by telephone.
This poll is 12 days old!
Thank you for posting this. This is the most current data from Mason Dixon and it was completed yesterday but before bin Laden tape was shown. Here is an interesting quote from the MSNBC story that I think is both encouraging and true from my own experience:
"One of the sources of resilience for Bush seems to be that he enjoys greater loyalty from self-identified Republicans than Kerry does from self-identified Democrats. In Florida, for instance, Mason-Dixon found that 88 percent of Republicans support Bush, while 79 percent of Democrats back Kerry."
"In what is an excruciatingly tight election, such small differences can have a decisive impact."
This would give Bush 286 EVs to Kerry 248
Real Clear Politics says all were done OCt 27-29 too.
I can't take much more suspense!
We have planned a Victory party at our local Repub. HQ for Tuesday night. Most of us will be working at precinct polling places all day. Our party will start after 7:30pm, or 8pm. EVERYONE who loves BUSH CHENEY is invited. Wine, beer, margaritas, food, snacks, desserts...... Lake Jackson Repub. HQ. Come join us if you are in town.
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