Posted on 10/11/2004 3:06:51 PM PDT by Olly
An Electoral Surge for Kerry
This is BusinessWeek Online's second look at how the Electoral College map is shaping up in the 2004 Presidential race. In our first look, President George W. Bush had taken a commanding lead in the race after the GOP convention in New York. Polls had showed him ahead in 30 states with 284 electoral votes -- 14 more than the 270 necessary to win the White House.
But a week of Presidential and Vice-Presidential debates has scrambled the electoral map again. Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry has closed Bush's lead in the popular vote and taken a tiny edge in the Electoral College.
THREE TOSS-UPS. Bush is clearly ahead in 28 states with 237 electoral votes, having lost a decisive edge in the pivotal battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio. Kerry leads in 19 states and the District of Columbia, which account for 247 electoral votes. The three toss-up states -- Florida, Ohio, and Iowa -- with their 54 electoral votes will determine the winner.
The senator must win just one of those three states to reach the 270 electoral votes necessary to capture the White House. Bush must win a megastate and at least two states captured by Al Gore in 2000, including Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Oregon.
Kerry strongly leads Bush in states with 164 votes, while the incumbent has a wide lead in states with 152. But Bush's occasionally halting performance in the Sept. 30 encounter at the University of Miami cost him support across the board, while consolidating Kerry's backing among core Democrats.
BATTLEGROUNDS. That moved six previous toss-ups (all won by Gore in 2000) back into Kerry's camp -- at least for now. The new Kerry-leaning states are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. That gives the senator an edge in eight of the 20 original battleground states, compared to nine for Bush and three dead even.
Though Kerry has momentum, he shouldn't take anything for granted. Just as the first debate reshuffled the Electoral College lineup, his appearances in St. Louis and Tempe, Ariz., could change the current political landscape. And in this roller-coaster election year, the only constant has been constant change.
Alabama 9 Alaska 3 Arizona 10 Arkansas 6 California 55 Colorado 9 Connecticut 7 Delaware 3 D.C. 3 Florida 27 Georgia 15 Hawaii 4 Idaho 4 Illinois 21 Indiana 11 Iowa 7 Kansas 6
Kentucky 8 Louisiana 9 Maine 4 Maryland 10 Massachusetts 12 Michigan 17 Minnesota 10 Mississippi 6 Missouri 11 Montana 3 Nebraska 5 Nevada 5 New Hampshire 4 New Jersey 15 New Mexico 5 New York 31 North Carolina 15.
North Dakota 3 Ohio 20 Oklahoma 7 Oregon 7 Pennsylvania 21 Rhode Island 4 South Carolina 8 South Dakota 3 Tennessee 11 Texas 34 Utah 5 Vermont 3 Virginia 13 Washington 11 West Virginia 5 Wisconsin 10 Wyoming 3
It is time for an October Surprise!!!!!
RCP Electoral Count
Monday, October 11: Bush 264 - Kerry 220
http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html
The headline is a bit misleading--as Bush will almost certainly win FL and OH--which means he wins.
That said, I'm nervous.
*ROTFL* Um, no.
Im sure there are those who wish this was true. Contrast BW with Rasmussen.
There is merit is being careful about how much credibility you put in such data. I am still waiting for the "Kerry Suprise"...courtesy of the Clinton Cartel.
I thought I'd seen Bush up by good margin Florida---did I just imagine that??
ok, because we are already winning those states. thanks.
How do they figure that Florida suddenly went soft for the President? Every recent poll I have seen has Bush solidly ahead, and ahead in Ohio, too, for that matter, though not by as much.
Tooooooooooooo funny
Rassmussian has given Florida to Bush, consistent 5 point edge.
Ohio is a different matter. I could easily see Kerry winning there.
That is possibly the worst analysis I've ever seen. Kerry can win by winning Iowa? Uh, excuse me???
And last I looked W carried New Hampshire in '00...
F'n BizWeek...
How can the internals show Bush way ahead by around double digits and the horse race number be so close. Makes no sense, unless the polls are designed to produce those results beforehand. I would bet I could make it turn out that way :-}
Disregard this fluff, especially since it's associated with Yahoo.
This was before the second debate.
Kerry leads in 19 states and the District of Columbia, which account for 247 electoral votes. The three toss-up states -- Florida, Ohio, and Iowa -- with their 54 electoral votes will determine the winner.
The senator must win just one of those three states to reach the 270 electoral votes necessary to capture the White House
Thats WRONG!!! Iowa does him no good unless he wins one of the other two!!!!!!!!
I am concerned about Ohio, but in the end think W will get it, narrowly. The sheeple are fickle and always blame a slow economy on the current President, and our economy in Ohio has lagged behind in the recovery.
FL is in the bag for Bush, methinks.
BusinessWeek is very very very liberal. I cancelled my subscription years ago.
Business week is liberal.
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