Posted on 09/22/2004 9:47:09 AM PDT by freespirited
Take a look at graph from Iowa Electronic Market.
Okay, I did some checking on the site. That winner-take-all market only attempts to predict who will win. The election-vote-share market attempts to predict the spread. Here's the link to the current graph:
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_VS.cfm
Currently, it shows a slight uptick for Kerry and downtick for Bush, but is holding rather steady at Bush .527 and Kerry .470. I read that to mean it currently is projecting a Bush win by 52/53 to 47%.
That is remarkably consistent with the RCP poll average, but of course it may be driven by that very information.
from 2004, may be of archival interest:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1223668/posts?page=21#21
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