Posted on 09/02/2004 4:00:51 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
NEW YORK - John Kerry's $50 million post-Labor Day advertising effort will start in seven states before expanding to an additional 13, creating a coast-to-coast presidential battleground map by Nov. 2.
The Democrat's commercials begin airing Friday in Ohio, then next week in Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to Democratic officials familiar with the buy.
In an unusual strategy, the campaign was reserving airtime over the entire two-month period until the election. The rest of the states — Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Maine, Michigan, Arizona, Louisiana, Colorado, Arkansas and North Carolina and West Virginia — won't see the spots until later this fall.
Ads will air on local network affiliates, cable TV and broadcast outlets targeting minorities.
President Bush, in New York for his nominating convention, was placing his first fall ad order this week, with ads slated to begin airing Tuesday. Unlike Kerry's lengthy purchase, Bush's buy is expected cover one or two weeks at a time.
Kerry's $50 million down payment is more than half of the roughly $90 million that the Democrat has at his disposal between now and Election Day. Officials said the campaign also has budgeted an undisclosed amount of money to pour into key states later in the fall.
There are no surprises among the 20 states that Kerry has effectively identified as his battlegrounds. The remaining 30 states plus the District of Columbia are either safely Republican or Democratic, aides said, with the possible exception of Virginia.
Previewing his fall strategy with a two-month buy is unusual and risky: Bush's campaign now knows Kerry's Electoral College strategy. But buying airtime now means that Kerry can lock in current advertising rates, which rise sharply in the fall as demand for airtime soars. He can always cancel ads later in states he feels he cannot win and redeploy those dollars to others he believes he can.
Of Kerry's top seven states, four were narrowly won by Democrat Al Gore in 2000: Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. Three other states were barely won by Bush, including Florida, where he escaped with a 537-vote margin.
To reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, Kerry needs to reclaim each of the states won by Gore plus pick up 10 electoral votes. His biggest targets are economically ailing Ohio (20 votes) and Florida (27 votes), where the Democratic-leaning population is growing. Bush also won New Hampshire and its four electoral votes.
Of the 13 states slated for ads in later waves, Nevada and West Virginia, with a combined 10 electoral votes, are considered to be Kerry's best opportunities to claim a state won by Bush four years ago.
Nevada has a growing Hispanic population, and many voters fault Bush for his support of a nuclear waste site in the state. West Virginia is filled with cultural conservatives courted by the GOP, but a tough economy and the Iraq war could help Kerry. It begins seeing ads Sept. 21.
Officials said the fall commercials will focus on local media markets with the heaviest numbers of undecided, independent or persuadable votes. Eventually, they may begin airing in heavily Republican or Democratic areas as Kerry searches for the stray swing voter, aides said.
In Virginia, Kerry has spent $2.5 million to try to make the state competitive, but it didn't make the list.
They just conceded Va by not running ads there..
I love the smell of DNC sweat in the morning. It has a distinctive odor.
Does anyone know why the Swift boats ads are running in Maryland?
We're considered a "locked state" for kerry.
Do the Swiftees just have wild hopes or do they know something the rest of us don't?
[not that it wouldn't send me into absolute raptures to give our votes to W this election]
Yep.... Its also an admission they've fallen behind in the polls. The fact they have to buy ad time in Maine, Oregon and Washington State is NOT a good sign for them.
Hehehe... make em sweat. If Kerry starts running ads in Maryland, then I'll believe the fat lady is singing.
I have felt for several years that they are the best buy in TV advertising. We will see how effective the buy is for the Swift Boat Veterans. They have a nationwide by that only cost about a half million dollars.
I hope the spots prove effective.
The Kerry girls were in Norfolk,VA yesterday speaking at an historically black University yesterday.
Found it interesting that they did not go to a larger University across town, not minutes away, that has lots of vets who get their degrees there.
Only two of these 6 states were Bush states. But the real state in question is Ohio. Both campaigns are spending a ton of money and time in Ohio.
Mike DeWine was with the swing by Bush through the western part of ohio earlier this week Dewine said the crowds were tremendous.. DeWine said the last time he saw such a turn out in western Ohio was in the 1984 campaign of Ronald Reagan. If Bush is drawing 1984 Reagan sized crowds in Oio that is a very good sign.
Dewine said they took the back roads and stopped at every small towm. There were huge crowds at every stop. The turn out in rural western Ohio is a major factor if Bush is to win Ohio.
Ah.
I see.
Then here's hoping that my fellow hillbillys come down from the mountains and vote like they did in 2002.
The DNC is hammering ads here in MN, when will the RNC start playing ads?
I was thrilled the Swiftboat ads were cable buys,as I get to see them in Texas...
It's only a guess, but I figure it's to reach into eastern West Virginia. I drive between West Virginia and Washington, DC on a weekly basis and West Virginia is being bombarded by every campaign ad out there.
Two of the Kerry ads just ran in NJ in the last 10 minutes during Fox & Friends. One on the economy and one on the Patriot Act. They are totally insignificant after Zell Miller's speech and will have no impact.
Yeah, I know.
[I can see Martinsburg from the top of my mountain]
W came to Hedgesville and Ms heinz-kerry-whoever came to Martinsburg after that but no commoners were allowed near her.
Supposedly kerry has no plans to follow W's footsteps into the panhandle.
I reckon he has a "hick allergy" or sumthin'...:)
I would guess it's because of all the talking heads that work in D.C. will see the ads running.
All that tells you is that Kerry is behind in that state.
If the kerry ads have little or no effect and bush stays ahead, he may not spend any money in the state.
If a candidate is behind in a must win state, that candidate spends a lot of money on ads. If the ads don't work and the money is in effect wasted, then the other camapaign may spend little or nothing at all.
There appears to be 7 states that are in real contention Four of those states were won by Gore in 2000.
Right now it looks like Bush is going to win OHio and PA is too close to call. If the undecideds drop the way Rove is predicting Pa will be in the Bush column. It that happens the game is over.
Kerry is buying ads and running his campaign like a man who is behind. Candidates that run like they are behind.. ....... are.
eFing lets a spitball fly at the Bush campaign... 
It might be that the Swiftees want to get their message in front of the Washington press corps so the reporters are more familiar with the vets' arguments.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.