Posted on 08/29/2004 5:15:25 PM PDT by Vision Thing
The rock solid statistic in the latest Battleground Poll, the number that actually means something, the salient political fact that I have been raising in articles for the last several years, is found in the "housekeeping" section of the questionnaire: Question D3 on Page 11 of the sixteen page questionnaire.
It bears repeating: "When thinking about politics, do you consider yourself to be..." and then it lists six options for responders, which are "Very conservative," "Somewhat conservative," "Moderate," "Somewhat liberal," "Very Liberal," and "Unsure/Refused."
Precise recitation of these options is important because Leftists typically respond to polls which show that America is conservative by saying something like "Oh, no - it is really moderate, not conservative" or "Most people do not really have an ideological position."
That is completely false. This Battleground Poll, like the five before it over the last four years, have given Americans the easy option of calling themselves a "moderate" or of simply saying that the "don't know" or "refused to answer."
Those Americans who call themselves conservative in this latest Battleground Poll constitute exactly sixty percent of the American public. The rest - all of the rest, including "moderates" and "unsure" and "refused to answer" and every shade of "liberal" - constituted exactly forty percent of the American public.
Those who actually called themselves "Somewhat liberal" or "Very liberal" was only thirty-four percent. The difference between "conservatives" and "liberals" in America is today a whopping twenty-six percentage points.
If every conservative voted for President Bush and Republican candidates, and every other voter voted for Senator Kerry and Democrat candidates, the result would be a landslide virtually unprecedented in modern American political history. Kerry would struggle to carry his home state of Massachusetts and might well lose every state in the Union.
If every conservative voted Republican and every liberal Democrat and the rest stayed home or broke evenly, Democrats would lose almost every Senate race in the nation and a landslide defeat at every other level - congressional, state and local.
What is more remarkable is that these Battleground Polls are consistent in showing an overwhelming conservative majority over liberals, moderates and indifferent Americans, but that these very thorough polls show the divide between "conservative" and "liberal" has never been greater. Since June 2002, Battleground Polls have showed an overwhelming majority of Americans (not just Americans who chose "conservative" or "liberal" were conservatives.)
In September 2003, a bit under sixty percent of Americans called themselves "conservative" while thirty-five percent of Americans called themselves "liberal." In April 2004, the Battleground Poll showed a bit under sixty percent of Americans were "conservative" while thirty-seven percent of Americans were "liberal.." What about the Battleground Poll a couple of months ago, in June 2004? Fifty-nine percent of Americans called themselves "conservative" while thirty-eight percent of Americans called themselves "liberal."
As the campaign has gotten more serious, the gap between "conservatives" and "liberals" has widened from twenty percentage points to twenty-six percentage points - a wider gap than any of the previous Battleground Polls. Kerry, the most liberal member of the United States Senate, cannot long pretend that he is not distinctly to the Left of President Bush. The party that allowed him to be anointed cannot long pretend that it did not know he was a Leftist.
Forget the trial heats in that poll. Polls are already beginning to show that Americans are paying attention to the ideology of the candidates and their parties and there is a distinct drift toward President Bush. The more Americans look at the two candidates and their parties, the more Americans will move toward the Republican Party and a Bush landslide.
If a person is going to be conservative, doesn't he need to act that way i.e. isn't it true that saying so doesn't make it so?
From Bruce Walker's lips to God's ears.
'Conservative' has different meanings. I consider myself to be both a social and fiscal conservative. Some say if you're social conservative, you're not a conservative at all. Others say that if you're a social conservative, but not a fiscal conservative, you're no conservative at all.
I say, who cares? If more people call themselves conservative than liberal or "I'm too stupid to know what I am", then all is well.
Mens News Daily?
Bingo!! I have a colleague who is quite liberal but who sincerely thinks he's conservative -- because he lives in Ithaca ("The City of Evil").
One reason for these results is probably that the center of the spectrum has moved extremely far to the left over the last fifty years.
That's where I found it. Click on the link for it at the top of the post.
If this IS true... President Bush should be ahead by double digits in most states. Instead he has a lead INSIDE the margin of error. I agree America isn't hospitable to liberals but by no means do conservatives enjoy a cakewalk to victory. The President at the moment is facing a tight re-election bid. Oh I have no doubt of the outcome but for now the numbers are too close for comfort.
But it is also true that people mis-categorize themselves, and there is enough of a feeling out there that "liberal" is a term of opprobrium that people who are in fact liberal do not desribe themselves as such. I know several such people, who say they consider themselves conservative, and who are in fact 100 percent liberal in their political beliefs. If people in the US were in fact conservative in the numbers reflected in this article, we would have a very different government. I think our government is a perfectly accurate reflection of the views of the electorate.
conservative-limited government, low taxes, individual responsibility...liberal-socialist
"I say, who cares? If more people call themselves conservative than liberal or "I'm too stupid to know what I am", then all is well."
I just call myself a conservative libertarian.
I told you so!
I agree. This same Battleground poll was available late in 2000. It essentially said the same thing: America is vastly conservative. I based a lot of hope on it for the Bush vs. Gore election. I was bitterly dissapointed with the actual election results.
You gotta figure all kinds of things went wrong: Overconfidence on Rove's part, the last-minute revelation of Bush's drunk driving arrest, voter fraud.
I don't know what to believe. But the Battleground poll is bipartisan, so it has some legitimacy.
Yeah, its like when pro-gay marriage, and pro-choice Republicans are referred to as 'moderate' by the media, when they are clearly liberal. Though, I guess that may have more to do with media/elite bias.
But anyway, I wish I could take comfort in such studies, but then I remember the immigration-driven demographic shift in the US towards the Democratic party.
Also, that some groups like Hispanics and blacks hold conservative views on things like gay marriage, abortion (and even immigration for black Americans) is irrelevant. Those issues are not vote-deciding issues for them, and they get trumped by other ones as they continue voting for the party that favors gay marriage and abortion on demand.
You'd think that at the very least the influx of 'socially conservative Catholic Hispanics' would inject some social conservatism into the Democratic party, but it definitely has not.
So anyway, I see the trends favoring the Democrats on a natinonal level.
Wow, vivaBush, you've been banned real quick!
Now we need to get these people involved in the process and voting. Good news!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.